Daily Operational Summary – December 11, 2024 (As of 15:51 UTC)

Key Developments:

The situation in Ukraine and Syria remains extremely volatile, with significant escalations and rapid deterioration across multiple fronts.

Ukraine:

• Intense Fighting in Eastern Ukraine: Russian forces continue their rapid advance in the east, particularly around Kurakhovo, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk. They have captured key locations, including the Kurakhove elevator, and are making significant advances near Pokrovsk and Toretsk.
• High Ukrainian Casualty Rates and Low Morale: Reports indicate high Ukrainian casualty rates, desertions, and low morale, exacerbated by widespread corruption and incompetent command. Ukrainian forces lack sufficient engineering personnel and are suffering from insufficient support and friendly fire incidents.
• Russian Advances: Russian forces are within 2km of the outskirts of Pokrovsk and have launched a new offensive near Toretsk. They are within 5km of the Pokrovsk coal mine and have made significant gains in Donetsk Oblast, consolidating control in several areas and advancing towards others.
• Heavy Fighting: Heavy fighting is reported around several locations in the Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Vremyevka directions.
• Zaporizhzhia Attacks: Intensified Russian attacks in Zaporizhzhia, including multiple ballistic missile strikes on a medical facility and a business center, have resulted in at least nine deaths and twenty-two injuries. Further strikes on Yenakiieve prompted a mass evacuation.
• Corruption and Embezzlement: Reports reveal widespread corruption within the Ukrainian military, hindering efforts to build effective defensive lines; 30 criminal investigations into alleged embezzlement totaling $483 million are underway.
• Cluster Munitions: Russian forces have broken through Ukrainian lines near Chasov Yar, capturing a strongpoint despite Ukrainian use of cluster munitions.
• Drone Warfare: Both sides continue to use drones extensively. Russian FPV drones have been particularly effective. Ukrainian forces have deployed a new drone called "Postman" near Kurakhovo and have successfully shot down a Russian Supercam drone.
• FPV Drone Successes: Video evidence confirms Russian FPV drone strikes destroying a Ukrainian electronic warfare station and an M1 Abrams tank.
• Ukrainian F-16s: Ukrainian F-16s are based in Poland, with 7 already operational and flying missions over Ukraine. The US State Department approved a $266 million package for servicing Ukrainian F-16s.
• Peace Negotiations: The Russian government is actively engaging in peace negotiations but insists on the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region.
• Allegations of War Crimes: A Russian battalion commander alleges that Ukrainian forces received orders for reprisals against civilians in Kursk Oblast.
• Drone Strikes: Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian targets have been confirmed, including strikes on the Bryansk oil depot and the Taganrog Aviation Scientific and Technical Complex. These strikes have caused significant damage.

Syria:

• Collapse of Assad Regime: The Assad regime has collapsed, creating a power vacuum and widespread chaos. Bashar al-Assad is confirmed to be in Russia.
• Factions Vying for Control: Numerous factions are vying for control, resulting in violence, summary executions, and a major refugee crisis.
• Turkish-Backed Rebels: Turkish-backed Syrian rebels captured Manbij, engaging in summary executions and looting.
• Syrian Islamist Control: Syrian Islamists claim to have taken control of Deir ez-Zor, ousting the SDF Kurds.
• Israeli Airstrikes: Israel's "Operation Shield of Bashan" involved widespread airstrikes, resulting in the near-total destruction of the Syrian navy and significant damage to the Syrian military.
• Russian Withdrawal: Russia is reportedly withdrawing its forces from Syria, although some naval vessels remain near Tartus.
• Interim Prime Minister: Mohammed al-Bashar has been appointed interim Prime Minister of Syria.
• Iranian Warning: An Iranian military advisor claimed that Iran warned Syria about the impending Israeli attacks three months prior.
• Syrian Opposition: A prominent Syrian opposition figure, Mohammed Alloush, stated Syria's desire for cooperation with all nations based on non-interference and that the Syrian people would decide on the future of US and Russian military presence in Syria.
• Reported Ukrainian Support for HTS: The Washington Post reported that Ukrainian intelligence services provided support to HTS rebels in Syria before their offensive against government forces, including the transfer of drone operators and drones.

Other Key Developments:

• Nuclear Threat: The presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus and Lukashenko's comments raise the global threat level, though Putin claims Oreshnik missiles may negate the need for nuclear weapons.
• Possible North Korean Involvement: Reports suggest a possible transfer of Russian fighter jets to North Korea in exchange for troops.
• Belarusian Military Capabilities: Belarus has deployed a mobile communication system called "Kulisas" and tested a new 9M318 missile.
• NATO Response: A report in the National Interest suggests NATO may deploy B-61 nuclear bombs in Poland or Ukraine as a response to the deployment of Russian Oreshnik missiles.
• Canadian Aid: The Canadian Parliament approved a ~$600 million direct military aid package for Ukraine.
• UK Laser Weapon Test: Great Britain successfully tested a laser weapon mounted on an armored vehicle.
• EU Sanctions: The EU approved a 15th sanctions package against Russia.
• Potential Peacekeeping Mission: President Macron is reportedly seeking allies for a potential European peacekeeping mission in Ukraine.
• Cyber Attacks: Ukrainian hackers claimed to have taken down Russia's primary cloud service provider.

Analysis of Trends:

• Intensification of Conflict: Military engagements are escalating, with Russia making significant advances in Ukraine. The power vacuum in Syria is leading to increased instability.
• Increased Use of Drone Warfare: Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature of the conflict, transforming combat dynamics.
• Deepening Humanitarian Crisis: The conflicts' impact on civilian populations is worsening, with increasing casualties and displacement.
• Geopolitical Realignments: The collapse of the Assad regime and the subsequent power shifts in Syria are impacting regional stability and influencing the strategic calculations of global powers.
• Technological Advancements: Both sides are deploying new technologies, such as advanced drones and communication systems, highlighting the evolving nature of modern warfare.
• Information Warfare: The conflict is accompanied by intense information warfare, with both sides using propaganda and disinformation to influence public opinion and justify their actions.

Strategic Recommendations:

1. Strengthen Ukrainian Defenses: Prioritize the reinforcement of defensive positions, particularly in areas facing immediate threats like Kurakhovo, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk.
2. Enhance Air Defense Capabilities: Accelerate the deployment of advanced air defense systems to counter the increasing threat of Russian missile and drone strikes.
3. Address Ukrainian Military Corruption: Implement measures to combat corruption and improve command competence to bolster troop morale and operational effectiveness.
4. Improve Logistical Support: Enhance supply chains and address logistical challenges to ensure Ukrainian forces have the necessary resources.
5. Counter-Drone Capabilities: Invest in advanced counter-drone technologies and develop effective strategies to neutralize enemy UAVs.
6. Monitor Russian Advances: Continuously monitor Russian troop movements and adapt defensive strategies accordingly.
7. Geopolitical Implications of Assad's Presence in Russia: Analyze the impact of Assad's presence in Russia on regional stability and international relations.
8. Nuclear Escalation Preparedness: Heightened preparedness for potential nuclear escalation in Ukraine is essential.
9. Verification of Information: Implement robust information verification protocols to counter disinformation.
10. Humanitarian Response: Coordinate with international organizations to provide aid to affected civilians.
11. Analysis of Bryansk and Taganrog Attacks: Investigate the cause and implications of these attacks on Russian infrastructure.
12. Assess effectiveness of drone operations: Analyze successful drone strikes to improve targeting procedures and optimize operations.
13. Monitor "Kulibin Club" Activities: Track the progress and impact of this initiative on Russian military capabilities.
14. Analyze Iranian intelligence: Assess the reliability of Iranian claims regarding warnings to Syria.
15. Assess the impact of potential loss of US aid to Ukraine: Analyze the potential consequences of reduced US aid.
16. Immediate Assessment of Taganrog Situation: Investigate the explosions and gunfire in Taganrog to understand the situation and potential threats.
17. Enhanced Maritime Security Measures: Reassess maritime security in the region given recent developments in Syria.
18. Assess the potential impact of increased sanctions on Russia's economy.
19. Analyze the potential implications of removing HTS from the terrorist list.
20. Monitor potential impact of special accounts for foreign agents in Russia.
21. Assess geopolitical implications of the detention of the South Korean police commissioner.
22. Investigate the lab leak in Australia: Determine the potential risks and implement necessary safety measures.
23. Assess the implications of Ukrainian air defense disrupting Russian drone routes.
24. Investigate reports of injured Russian soldiers being sent to the front.
25. Monitor the situation near the Antonovsky Bridge and assess potential vulnerabilities.
26. Analyze the implications of the successful test of a British laser weapon system.
27. Assess the impact of the potential deployment of B-61 nuclear bombs in Poland or Ukraine.
28. Investigate reports of fraudulent enlistment in the Russian military.
29. Monitor the situation in Abkhazia following the power outage.
30. Evaluate the potential impact of increased sanctions on Russian oil exports.
31. Assess the implications of the raids on Ukrainian railways.
32. Analyze the potential impact of the arrest of Alexi Raumo on Russian internal stability.
33. Investigate the raids on Moscow call centers and their alleged links to Ukrainian military support.
34. Evaluate the potential impact of the "Postman" drone on the battlefield.
35. Assess the implications of the reported assassination of Khalil Haqqani.
36. Analyze the potential impact of legalizing mercenary activity in Poland for Ukrainians fighting in Ukraine.
37. Assess the implications of the meeting between Kadyrov and Vaino.
38. Monitor the security situation of the Russian embassy in Syria.
39. Evaluate the potential impact of the death of a Taliban minister in Kabul.
40. Assess the implications of the lack of high-level contact between Russia and the US regarding Syria.
41. Analyze the potential impact of Russia's release of AI textbooks.
42. Evaluate President Biden's claim of weakening Russia.
43. Assess the implications of Bortnikov's statement on Western intelligence activities.
44. Monitor the situation in Syria and assess the potential for further escalation.
45. Evaluate the potential impact of the proposed European peacekeeping mission in Ukraine.
46. Address the reports of corruption and abuse within the 152nd Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
47. Assess the impact of significant drone donations to Ukrainian military units.
48. Evaluate the implications of the upgraded Su-57 engine.
49. Monitor Russian statements on nuclear weapons and migration policy.
50. Investigate the large-scale fire in Moscow-City.
51. Assess the impact of Russian mobilization and judicial actions against soldiers.
52. Evaluate the potential impact of the new law prohibiting migrant children from attending Russian schools without Russian language knowledge.
53. Assess the implications of the reported conversation between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhny.
54. Investigate reports of Russia receiving sniper rifles and ammunition from the EU and US despite sanctions.

Conclusion:

The operational environment as of December 11, 2024, is characterized by extreme volatility and rapid changes. The intensification of the conflict in Ukraine, coupled with the power vacuum in Syria, presents significant challenges and risks. The increasing use of drones, the potential for further escalation, and the deteriorating humanitarian situation require immediate and coordinated responses. The confirmed use of ATACMS missiles by Ukraine, coupled with the successful deployment of the "Palyanytsya" drone, represents a significant escalation in the conflict. The confirmed degradation of the Syrian military, coupled with the ongoing power vacuum, introduces a new level of instability to the region. The allegations of corruption within the Ukrainian military, alongside reports of low morale and desertions, highlight critical internal weaknesses that must be addressed. The potential for a European peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, while offering a glimmer of hope for de-escalation, introduces further complexities to the geopolitical landscape. The ongoing humanitarian crisis in both Ukraine and Syria demands immediate and sustained international attention. The increasing use of drone warfare and the potential for further technological advancements, such as the deployment of laser weapons, necessitates a continuous reassessment of military strategies and capabilities. The information warfare and propaganda campaigns being waged by both sides require careful monitoring and effective countermeasures. The potential for further escalation, including the use of nuclear weapons, cannot be ignored and requires comprehensive contingency planning. The arrest of Alexi Raumo and the ongoing raids on Ukrainian railway facilities suggest internal instability within both Russia and Ukraine, which could further impact the conflict. The ongoing war crimes and attacks on civilian infrastructure, particularly those targeting international organizations, demand strong condemnation and increased monitoring. The confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus and Lukashenko's comments regarding their potential use drastically raise the global threat level. Reports of a possible transfer of Russian fighter jets to North Korea in exchange for troops to fight in Ukraine, and that Belarus has received several dozen nuclear warheads, add to the escalating tensions. The potential deployment of NATO nuclear weapons in Poland or Ukraine in response to the deployment of Russian Oreshnik missiles raises the stakes even further. The ongoing conflict is having a significant impact on the global economy, with potential implications for energy markets and international trade. The potential for further escalation, including the use of nuclear weapons, cannot be ignored and requires comprehensive contingency planning. The increasing use of drone warfare and the potential for further technological advancements, such as the deployment of laser weapons, necessitates a continuous reassessment of military strategies and capabilities. The information warfare and propaganda campaigns being waged by both sides require careful monitoring and effective countermeasures. The potential for further escalation, including the use of nuclear weapons, cannot be ignored and requires comprehensive contingency planning. The arrest of Alexi Raumo and the raid on Moscow call centers highlight new developments impacting Russia's internal stability and external support networks. The potential for a European peacekeeping mission in Ukraine introduced a major geopolitical shift, potentially leading to a de-escalation of the conflict. The ongoing successful Ukrainian drone attacks and the continued Russian advances in the east of Ukraine show the ever-evolving situation on the ground. The claims of defective Ukrainian munitions present a critical concern that must be addressed immediately. The successful test of the British laser weapon and the introduction of the Ukrainian "Postman" drone represent significant new technological developments that could shift the balance of power in the conflict. The ongoing casualty reports demonstrate the human cost of this conflict and emphasize the need for humanitarian support and efforts toward peace. The power outage in Abkhazia and reports of internal Russian tensions require immediate assessment. The assassination of Khalil Haqqani, a Taliban official in Kabul, was reported, adding another layer of complexity to the region. The reported Ukrainian support for HTS rebels in Syria suggests increased involvement in the Syrian conflict. The destruction of two mainline locomotives in Bryansk and significant damage to Mariupol's sanitation system reveals the ongoing impact of the conflict on civilian infrastructure in both Ukraine and Russia. The suicide attempt by the former South Korean defense minister suggests underlying political instability. The removal of a Christmas tree in Petrivka reveals the ongoing tensions in the region. The reports of significant internal issues within the 152nd Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The successful Ukrainian drone strikes near Vovchansk. The reported use of ATACMS missiles in the Taganrog attack. The implications of the successful Ukrainian deployment of the "Postman" drone. The implications of the reported loss of power across Abkhazia. The implications of the reported death of Colonel Krachneko. The impact of the reported widespread corruption within the Ukrainian military. The implications of the attempted Ukrainian invasion of Kursk Oblast. The effectiveness of Russian air defense systems in light of the continued success of Ukrainian drone operations. The impact of the reported human rights abuses within the Russian military. The reported statements by the Ukrainian Presidential Office advisor Podolyak on potential peace negotiations. The implications of reports suggesting Russia pushed Assad to flee Syria.