INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY: 271542Z JUN 25

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Russian forces are intensifying shaping operations on two primary axes, preparing for a likely major ground assault on Chasiv Yar (Donetsk Oblast) within the next 48 hours. Simultaneously, they are sustaining high-pressure assaults in the Vovchansk area (Kharkiv Oblast) to fix Ukrainian reserves and exploit tactical gains. The widespread use of glide bombs and sophisticated Electronic Warfare (EW) poses a significant and immediate threat to Ukrainian defensive positions and ISR capabilities.

2. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• Overall Threat Level: HIGH
• Enemy Capabilities:
  • Air Power (HIGH Confidence): Pervasive use of FAB-500/1500 glide bombs to degrade fortified positions and command posts, particularly in the approaches to Chasiv Yar. This capability allows standoff attacks, reducing risk to Russian aviation assets.
  • Electronic Warfare (HIGH Confidence): Significant EW concentrations are active along the Kharkiv and Donetsk axes, effectively degrading Ukrainian Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) command links and GPS navigation. This severely hampers tactical ISR and FPV drone operations.
  • Artillery & Loitering Munitions (HIGH Confidence): Sustained, high-volume artillery fire is being used in Vovchansk for suppression. In Donetsk, there is a marked increase in the use of Lancet loitering munitions specifically targeting Ukrainian artillery, RADAR systems, and logistical nodes.
• Immediate Risks:
  • Tactical Breakthrough (Vovchansk): A concentrated push could overwhelm local defenses, forcing the commitment of operational reserves intended for other axes.
  • Encirclement (Chasiv Yar): The preparatory bombardment indicates a high probability of a multi-pronged assault aimed at isolating the town.
  • Asset Attrition: The combined threat from Lancets and glide bombs presents a critical risk of accelerated attrition to Ukrainian high-value assets (artillery, air defense, C2 nodes).

3. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Kharkiv Axis (Vovchansk Sector):

  • Confirmed: Russian forces continue attempts to consolidate control within northern Vovchansk and are conducting repeated, company-to-battalion-sized assaults across the Vovcha River.
  • Confirmed: Heavy artillery and thermobaric munitions (TOS-1A) are being employed against Ukrainian strongpoints within the urban area to reduce fortifications ahead of infantry advances.
  • Analysis: Russian operations here appear designed to fix Ukrainian units in place, draw in reserves, and prevent their redeployment to the more critical Donetsk axis.

• Donetsk Axis (Chasiv Yar Sector):

  • Confirmed: Intensive shaping operations are underway. Over the last 24 hours, Russian aviation has conducted over 30 glide bomb strikes on Ukrainian positions east of the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal.
  • Confirmed: Small-scale, probing ground assaults by dismounted infantry continue along the eastern approaches to Chasiv Yar, likely to identify weaknesses in defensive lines and fix forward defenders.
  • Analysis: The pattern of intense air bombardment followed by probing attacks is a textbook precursor to a major ground assault. The main effort is clearly focused on seizing this operationally significant high ground.

• Kupiansk-Svatove Axis:

  • Initial Reporting: Signals and imagery intelligence suggest a logistics and materiel buildup in rear areas opposite the Kupiansk axis. This includes fuel, ammunition, and engineering equipment.
  • Analysis (MEDIUM Confidence): This activity could support a future offensive operation intended to further stretch Ukrainian defenses, or it may be a feint. The scale does not yet indicate an imminent, large-scale assault.

4. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• Enemy Intent (Chasiv Yar): The primary axis of the anticipated main assault on Chasiv Yar remains unconfirmed. ISR is required to determine if the main effort will be a frontal assault or an envelopment from the north/south.
• Enemy Order of Battle (ORBAT): The specific units and force composition being marshaled for the Chasiv Yar assault require verification to assess combat power and potential for sustained operations.
• EW Capabilities: Specific technical parameters (frequencies, power, systems) of Russian EW suites are needed to develop effective electronic counter-measures (ECM).
• Logistics Buildup (Kupiansk): The purpose and scale of the logistical preparations on the Kupiansk axis are unclear and require dedicated ISR collection.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (24-48 HOUR FORECAST)

• Most Likely Course of Action (HIGH Confidence): Russian forces will initiate a coordinated, multi-pronged ground assault on Chasiv Yar, leveraging their fire superiority to create a breach in Ukrainian lines. Simultaneously, they will maintain maximum pressure at Vovchansk to prevent reinforcement of the Donetsk axis. Expect a significant increase in Lancet and FPV drone sorties against Ukrainian rear-area targets.
• Most Dangerous Course of Action (MEDIUM Confidence): A full-scale assault on Chasiv Yar is coupled with a surprise offensive push on the Kupiansk axis. This would represent a theater-level effort to shatter the Ukrainian defensive front in the Donbas, overwhelm C2, and force a significant operational-level retreat.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize ISR: Task all available ISR assets (UAS, SIGINT, satellite) to the Chasiv Yar sector to identify the primary axis of assault and enemy ORBAT. A secondary priority is monitoring the logistics buildup near Kupiansk.
2. Asset Dispersal & Hardening: Immediately enforce strict dispersal protocols for all artillery and command posts within range of Russian tactical fires, particularly in the Donetsk AO. Prioritize camouflage and the construction of hardened/bunkered positions.
3. Maintain Operational Reserve: Hold the operational reserve in a state of high readiness, postured to rapidly counter-attack a breakthrough at either Chasiv Yar or Vovchansk. Pre-plan routes and contingencies for both scenarios.
4. Counter-EW/UAS Posture: Deploy mobile electronic warfare teams to forward positions to protect friendly UAS operations and jam enemy FPV drone frequencies. Allocate short-range air defense (SHORAD) systems to protect critical C2 nodes and artillery concentrations from Lancet attacks.