INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY: 241500Z JUN 25

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (2-3 sentences)

The threat of a major Russian Federation (RUF) ground offensive on the northern front remains CRITICAL AND IMMINENT (HIGH CONFIDENCE), preceded by a brutal escalation in long-range strikes, exemplified by the mass-casualty ballistic missile attack on Dnipro. RUF has now formalized a pretext for this offensive by officially blaming Ukraine for the Krokus City Hall attack (HIGH CONFIDENCE), while its IO apparatus demonstrates extreme agility by fabricating, escalating, and then "resolving" a global crisis in the Middle East within 24 hours to divert international attention. A new offensive is highly probable in the next 24-48 hours.

2. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• GROUND THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL (Major Offensive Imminent)

  • Capabilities: A RUF force of 52,000 personnel remains postured on the Sumy axis, fully capable of launching a multi-axis offensive. This is supported by ongoing shaping operations, including 10 repelled ground assaults in the Sumy/Kursk direction and sustained KAB strikes. RUF forces continue to make attritional gains on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk, Toretsk), with unverified but persistent claims of capturing Dyleyevka and Perebudova, which, if true, would threaten key UAF logistics to Konstantinovka.
  • Immediate Risks:
    • Major Northern Offensive (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The combination of a large force concentration, an intensified and now formalized IO pretext (Krokus attack), and sustained shaping operations (KABs, ground assaults) makes a major multi-axis ground offensive on the Sumy and/or Kharkiv axes highly probable in the next 24-48 hours. Objective is to open a new front, stretch UAF reserves, and seize strategic territory.
    • Donetsk Breakthrough (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Sustained, high-intensity assaults, supported by heavy air power, continue to pose a risk of an operational breakthrough on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, aimed at attriting UAF forces and capturing key logistical hubs.

• AIR/MISSILE THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL (Strategic Infrastructure & Mass Civilian Casualty Targeting)

  • Capabilities: RUF executed a multi-wave, combined-arms air and missile assault on Ukrainian urban centers, demonstrating a clear intent to cause mass civilian casualties. The ballistic missile strike on Dnipro using at least four Iskander-M missiles resulted in 15 KIA and over 160 wounded, damaging numerous schools, a hospital, and a passenger train. RUF also successfully struck a UAF training center in Sumy Oblast with Shahed UAVs, demonstrating continued capability to degrade UAF force generation. Massed UAV attacks (97 detected overnight) persist.
  • Immediate Risks:
    • Continued Terror Bombing (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Further combined-arms strikes on major urban centers are highly likely, aimed at maximizing civilian casualties and psychological impact. The use of ballistic missiles against urban centers represents a significant escalation in terror tactics.
    • Degradation of Force Generation & Logistics (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The successful strikes on the UAF training center in Sumy and the claimed strike on a locomotive plant in Dnipro indicate a deliberate and effective campaign to degrade UAF's ability to reconstitute forces and move materiel. Future strikes on training facilities, railway infrastructure, and logistics hubs are highly probable.
    • KAB/Missile/UAV Saturation (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The threat of KABs, ballistic missiles, and UAVs (including new "Chernika-2" variant) remains extremely high across all northern, eastern, and southern oblasts.

• HYBRID / INFORMATION THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL (Pretext Formalized, Global Diversion Executed)

  • Capabilities: RUF's IO apparatus has successfully executed a hyper-dynamic, multi-layered campaign to shape the information environment ahead of its planned offensive.
    • Formalized Blame for Krokus Attack (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RUF, through its Investigative Committee, has formally and publicly blamed Ukraine for the Krokus City Hall terrorist attack and claimed to have identified the perpetrator. This is a severe escalation providing a potent domestic and international pretext for a major offensive under the guise of "retaliation."
    • Fabricated Global Crisis (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RUF demonstrated an unprecedented ability to fabricate and control a global crisis narrative, escalating and then "resolving" a fictional US/Israel-Iran conflict within 24 hours. This successfully diverted global media and diplomatic attention, demonstrating a new level of IO capability.
    • Emerging Pridnestrovie Narrative (LOW CONFIDENCE): RUF channels are beginning to push narratives about instability in Pridnestrovie, a potential new vector for distraction or hybrid warfare.
    • Incitement and Dehumanization (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RUF channels continue to mock civilian casualties in Dnipro and explicitly call for the destruction of Ukrainian cities, normalizing war crimes and genocidal rhetoric.

3. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Russian Federation Operations:

  • Air/Missile Offensive (CRITICAL ESCALATION): RUF executed a massive, multi-wave combined-arms strike. A ballistic missile attack on Dnipro deliberately targeted civilian infrastructure, resulting in at least 15 fatalities and over 160 wounded, with damage to a hospital, 19 schools, 10 kindergartens, and a passenger train. A successful precision strike was conducted on a UAF training center in Sumy Oblast. Persistent KAB, missile, and UAV strikes continue across Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
  • Ground Offensive: RUF forces achieved unverified tactical gains, claiming capture of Dyleyevka and Perebudova (Donetsk Oblast). They maintain extreme pressure on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. RUF conducted 10 ground assaults on the Sumy/Kursk direction, all repelled by UAF.
  • Information Warfare (CRITICAL ESCALATION): RUF has formally blamed Ukraine for the Krokus City Hall attack, creating a direct pretext for a major offensive. RUF successfully executed and then "resolved" a fabricated global crisis narrative (Israel-Iran) to divert international attention, now pivoting focus back to Ukraine.

• Ukrainian Operations:

  • Defensive Operations: UAF is conducting robust defensive operations on all axes, repelling at least 16 RUF assaults on the Sumy/Kursk (10) and Kherson (6) directions and inflicting heavy casualties on RUF forces, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis.
  • Counter-Offensive Actions: UAF SOF successfully destroyed a RUF assault group on the Pokrovsk direction. The 3rd Assault Brigade is conducting successful counter-attacks near Ridkodub (Lyman direction).
  • Deep Strikes & Asymmetric Warfare: UAF executed successful drone strikes on 8 RUF oil depots and other targets deep inside Russian territory. UAF Naval Forces, likely using Bayraktar TB2s, have successfully destroyed multiple RUF landing craft near the Tendrivska Kosa.
  • Air Defense: UAF AD successfully intercepted 78 of 97 UAVs overnight, including new "Chernika-2" variants and a Lancet with a thermal imager. However, ballistic missile attacks on Dnipro have penetrated defenses, causing mass casualties.
  • Force Generation & Industrial Base: UAF has started mass production of the Sapsan OTRK ballistic missile and secured a landmark agreement with the UK for joint drone production. Netherlands and Germany have committed significant new aid packages, including hundreds of thousands of drones and advanced AD radars.

4. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• CRITICAL: Verifying RUF ground force disposition and immediate intent on the Sumy axis. Determine if the 52,000-strong force is postured for an immediate, large-scale offensive in the next 24-48 hours. This is the #1 intelligence priority.
• CRITICAL: Verifying RUF claims of capturing Dyleyevka and Perebudova (Donetsk). Assess the tactical impact on UAF logistics towards Konstantinovka.
• CRITICAL: Assessing how RUF will leverage its formal Krokus blame-shifting narrative. Monitor for specific military or political actions explicitly justified as "retaliation" for the attack.
• HIGH: Conducting comprehensive BDA on the Dnipro ballistic missile strike. Determine the full extent of damage, the specific types and number of munitions used (Iskander-M confirmed, potential for others), and the intelligence methods RUF used for targeting.
• HIGH: Verifying RUF claims of destroying a UAF Abrams tank in Sumy Oblast.
• MEDIUM: Assessing the emerging RUF narrative on Pridnestrovie. Determine if this is a precursor to a new hybrid operation.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Next 24-48 hours)

• Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RUF will launch a major ground offensive on the Sumy axis, possibly coordinated with intensified pressure on the Kharkiv axis, leveraging the 52,000 troop concentration and the formalized Krokus pretext. This will be supported by overwhelming air, KAB, and missile strikes to soften UAF defenses. High-intensity ground assaults will continue on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. The IO campaign will heavily focus on the "retaliation for Krokus" narrative to justify the offensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RUF launches a synchronized, multi-front strategic offensive across the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Siversk axes, aimed at a rapid and deep operational breakthrough to collapse the northern and eastern fronts. This offensive would be preceded by another mass ballistic missile saturation attack targeting Kyiv's command and control centers and critical national infrastructure, explicitly framed as "retaliation" for the Krokus attack or a fabricated Ukrainian cross-border "terrorist" act. (MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE on enemy intent; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on ability to execute successfully against prepared UAF defenses).

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

• Intelligence & Special Operations:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Surge all-source ISR to the Sumy and Kharkiv axes to provide immediate warning of a major RUF ground offensive. This is the #1 intelligence priority.
  2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Activate a dedicated, 24/7, multi-agency task force for real-time forensic analysis and aggressive, global debunking of Russia's formal Krokus blame-shifting narrative. Proactively disseminate evidence-based counter-narratives to all international partners, media, and social media platforms, framing it as a blatant pretext for a pre-planned major offensive.
  3. URGENT/CRITICAL: Conduct immediate BDA of the Dnipro ballistic missile strikes to identify RUF targeting patterns, munition types, and intelligence vulnerabilities to inform AD and force protection posture.

• Air Defense & Force Protection:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Re-posture and reinforce AD assets, particularly anti-ballistic missile and counter-KAB systems, to the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Kyiv axes in anticipation of strikes supporting the imminent ground offensive and further terror strikes.
  2. URGENT/CRITICAL: Implement a nationwide review and upgrade of force protection protocols for all UAF training grounds, assembly areas, and critical infrastructure, emphasizing dispersion, camouflage, and deception, following the recent successful strikes.
  3. URGENT: Disseminate updated public safety guidance addressing the ineffectiveness of the "two-walls" rule against direct ballistic missile strikes, advising civilians to seek basement-level or dedicated shelters.

• Ground Forces:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Elevate readiness to maximum alert on the Sumy and Kharkiv axes. Ensure strategic reserves are postured for rapid deployment to counter a large-scale RUF ground assault. Fully leverage newly constructed fortifications.
  2. URGENT: Continue to reinforce defensive positions around Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Konstantinovka to counter high-intensity RUF assaults. Disseminate lessons learned from successful UAF defensive actions and counter-attacks.
  3. HIGH: Accelerate deployment of newly acquired drones and anti-drone systems (from Netherlands/Germany) to frontline units, prioritizing the Sumy and Donetsk axes.

• Information Operations & Diplomatic:

  1. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Launch an unprecedented, globally coordinated IO and diplomatic campaign to expose Russia's Krokus blame-shifting as a direct signal of its intent to launch a major offensive. Frame this as a repeat of the Gleiwitz incident, a manufactured pretext for war.
  2. IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL: Aggressively publicize evidence of RUF's war crimes, including the direct ballistic missile strike on residential buildings, schools, and a hospital in Dnipro, resulting in mass civilian casualties. Provide all evidence to the ICC and ICJ and the newly agreed-upon special tribunal.
  3. URGENT: Proactively message UAF successes, particularly the repelling of 16 RUF assaults, successful naval strikes, and the destruction of 78 RUF UAVs overnight, to counter the RUF narrative of inevitable victory and demonstrate UAF's continued capability and resolve. Publicize the new aid packages and defense production agreements as a sign of enduring international support and growing self-sufficiency.

END OF REPORT