Strategic Overview

We're seeing a major shift in tempo. Ukraine just sent a massive wave of over 120 drones deep into Russia, hammering logistics hubs in Moscow and Vladimir. It looks like a race to disrupt supply lines before the blizzard shuts down transport.

Ukrenergo is scheduling blackouts starting tomorrow. They aren't saying it explicitly, but this feels like pre-emptive defense—they know a retaliatory missile strike is coming.

The weather is currently the biggest variable. It's just above freezing (0.9°C) in Kharkiv. Once that drops and the mud freezes into concrete, the heavy armor is going to start moving.

Operational Updates

• Zaporizhzhia: The situation near Huliaipole is bad. Video confirms the 218th Tank Regiment has taken Tsvetkovoye. The Russian push stalled out after capturing the village, but the breach exposes the defensive lines. To make matters worse, high winds (6.7 m/s) are grounding our defensive drones.
• Donbas: Fighting has reached the streets of Myrnohrad. The 79th Air Assault Brigade is running "search-and-strike" ops to clear Russian infantry filtering into the outskirts. Further south in Pokrovsk, the ground is already freezing (4.3°C), which means Russian armor is moving faster.
• Deep Strike: That 123-drone swarm specifically targeted the distribution network for the 260th GRAU Arsenal. The goal is pretty clear: starve the Russian "Sever" group of ammo before the storm messes up their logistics.

SAR Intelligence (Satellite Data)

The data from the 1st Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment HQ is worrying. We saw a massive spike in activity recently, but today the score crashed to 1.70—way below the weekly average. When a unit goes dark like this after a burst of activity, it usually means they're done shuffling assets and are in position to launch.

Losses & Tech

• Strikes: Ukraine landed 12 confirmed hits on Russian infrastructure out of that 123-drone wave.
• Defense: Russian air defense is porous right now. Conversely, while we intercepted 55 Shaheds overnight, 25 still got through to hit infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv.
• Tactical: FPV operators near Pokrovsk had a good run, wiping out a squad of 12 Russians in a single engagement.

Assessment

I'm treating the Tsvetkovoye capture and the scale of the drone swarm as confirmed facts. The reports about Russians switching to the "MAX" comms platform because they don't trust Telegram are plausible, but I haven't seen hard proof yet.

The Bottom Line

The silence at the Russian missile HQs combined with the scheduled blackouts tells me a coordinated strike is hours away. Keep a close watch on the Zaporizhzhia sector. If the 218th pushes past Tsvetkovoye once the ground hardens, the southern defense is going to fracture.