The Diplomatic Front

Anyone hoping for a diplomatic breakthrough in Abu Dhabi on Feb 1 just got a reality check. Dmitry Peskov explicitly rejected neutral venues today, insisting that any meeting with President Zelensky happen in Moscow. That isn't an invitation; it’s a demand for surrender.

This confirms what looks like a "Negotiation by Fire" strategy—using kinetic brutality to force a summit on impossible terms. While the diplomats talk, the ground reality is shifting. Russia is weaponizing the "Orange Level" frost, targeting heating infrastructure in Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih. They're betting a humanitarian collapse will break Ukrainian resolve before Western aid can stabilize the grid.

On the Ground

Donbas Sector: The situation around Kostyantynivka is ugly. UAF "Phoenix" drone units are fighting off constant infiltration, and supply lines are straining. The 63rd Brigade did good work neutralizing a Russian platoon near Lyman, but I'm worried about the reports of an 80,000-man reserve in the Serebryanske Forest. While that number is unconfirmed—and frankly sounds high—the sheer volume of smoke screens suggests a major push is coming.

Southern Sector: The tech war just escalated. We now have confirmation that Russian forces are using fiber-optic guided FPV drones. Because these are hard-wired, they are immune to electronic warfare jamming, effectively neutralizing a key Ukrainian defense. Meanwhile, Vilniansk and Kryvyi Rih are taking hits from Shaheds aimed at civilian heating grids.

Rear Areas: Russia’s "Rubicon" unit claimed they killed an F-16 today. They didn't. They expended precision munitions on a mockup at Kanatovo airfield. It was a successful UAF deception operation, though the "Rezerv+" mobilization app suffering a major outage today complicates the personnel situation.

Satellite Intelligence (SAR)

The satellite imagery from the last 12 hours is flashing red. We are seeing massive activity spikes at deep-rear logistics hubs, which usually indicates a reload phase is nearly done.

• GRAU Missile Arsenal: The activity score spiked to 30.36. This is a massive anomaly. When I see numbers this high at an arsenal, it almost always means missiles are moving from storage to launch platforms.
• Air Defense: The 1532nd Regiment is hardening its positions. They are likely anticipating the UAF retaliation that will follow the Russian missile wave.

My read: The logistics don't lie. Russia is likely preparing a mass missile strike to coincide with the diplomatic talks on Feb 1.

Equipment & Losses

• A Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber crashed, killing the crew. Whether it was technical failure or friendly fire, that's a significant loss for their glide-bombing capabilities.
• Russia is officially formalizing drone warfare into a separate service branch ("Unmanned Systems Troops").
• SpaceX and the Ukrainian MoD finally closed the loophole allowing Russians to use Starlink terminals on long-range drones.

Assessment

Ignore the noise about peace talks. You don't demand a meeting in Moscow while simultaneously loading missile arsenals unless you intend to break things. I am skeptical of the single-source report regarding 80,000 troops near Slovyansk, but the intention is clear. Watch the Kyiv energy grid over the next 48 hours. The Kremlin wants a humanitarian crisis to use as leverage, even if their targeting intelligence—evidenced by the F-16 decoy strike—is still struggling.