SUBJECT: DAILY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY – 2025-12-25 DTG: 2025-12-25T15:00Z

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(STRATEGIC SHIFT) DEEP STRIKE CAMPAIGN & TACTICAL ADAPTATION: The operational picture has evolved rapidly with a massive Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) deep-strike campaign launching ~141 One-Way Attack UAVs (OWA-UAVs) targeting critical infrastructure as deep as Orenburg (Gas Processing) and Temryuk (Oil Terminals). In the Donbas, the Russian Federation (RF) has abandoned failed mechanized "banzai" assaults in Myrnohrad in favor of "small group" infantry infiltration, likely due to attrition. Concurrently, UAF forces have seized the tactical initiative in Kupyansk, exploiting RF command failures to advance near Zapadne.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Tactics (Myrnohrad): In a stark reversal from the previous report's assessment of heavy mechanized "banzai" assaults, the RF 9th Guards Brigade has shifted to "small group tactics" (1453Z) to infiltrate defenses. This indicates the previous mechanized surges reached a culmination point without achieving a breakthrough.
• Northern Front (Kupyansk): The situation has moved from "stalling/command problems" (previous report) to a confirmed UAF tactical success. RF sources admit "panic" and UAF advances near Zapadne (1323Z).
• Deep Strike Capability: Operations have expanded significantly beyond Tula (previous report). New confirmed strikes on the Orenburg Gas Processing Plant (~1,500km range) and Khanskaya Airfield (Adygea) demonstrate a qualitative leap in UAF strike reach.
• Space Domain: Following the intelligence breach regarding Chinese imagery (previous report), RF successfully launched a Soyuz-2.1a rocket (1432Z). This is likely an emergency reconstitution of organic ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) capabilities to reduce reliance on commercial providers.
• Southern Air Threat: RF Aerospace Forces (VKS) have initiated KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) strikes on the Zaporizhzhia axis (1437Z), a vector previously dominated by artillery/loitering munitions.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

(SAR Score Legend: 0-5 Low/Routine | 5-15 Moderate/Monitor | 15+ High/Critical)

• Strategic Retaliation (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL):
  • SAR Analysis: AB Monchegorsk (Strategic Bomber Base) score spiked to 11.51 (RISING); 15th AA Brigade (Belarus) rising to 8.26.
  • Assessment: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The spike in activity at Monchegorsk, combined with the humiliation of the Orenburg strike, signals high probability of a retaliatory mass-missile event within 24-48 hours.
• Southern Logistics (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH):
  • Indicator: Unconfirmed reports of a key bridge disabled near Odesa, forcing pontoon usage (1457Z).
  • Assessment: (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) If the bridge is severed, the main Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) to Romania is compromised. This correlates with the "Christmas Delivery" disruption strategy.
• Hybrid Escalation (THREAT LEVEL: MEDIUM):
  • Indicator: "Combat elements" found in the AZAL aircraft crash near Aktau, Kazakhstan (1349Z).
  • Assessment: (LOW CONFIDENCE) Potential stray RF AD missile or test malfunction. While not a direct threat to UAF, it creates a diplomatic flashpoint in the Caspian rear.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Deep Strike / Rear Operations:
  • Orenburg (RF): SBU strike on Gas Processing Plant (3U-70 unit). Targets RF economic sovereignty.
  • Temryuk (RF): Strike on oil terminal (4,000 sqm fire). Disrupts fuel flow to RF Southern Group.
  • Lipetsk (RF): "Red Level" air threat (1444Z); expansion of target set north of Voronezh.
• Eastern Axis:
  • Kupyansk: UAF counter-attack successful; established positions near Zapadne.
  • Pokrovsk/Rodynske: RF captured Svyato-Pokrovskoye and is pushing north toward Rodynske to flank Myrnohrad.
  • Myrnohrad: RF 9th Guards Bde utilizing infantry infiltration tactics; 57th Spetsnaz targeting UAF staging points.
• Internal RF/Occupied Territories:
  • Moscow: Severe blizzard disrupting logistics and movement of the new "Unmanned Systems Regiment."
  • Dnipro: Physical attack on TCC (Recruitment) officers (1423Z) highlights domestic tension.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• P1 (Logistics Integrity): Odesa Bridge Status. Urgent verification required. Is the bridge structurally compromised or temporarily disabled? Are pontoon crossings already active?
• P2 (Space Capabilities): Soyuz Payload. Determine the specific payload of the Soyuz-2.1a launch. Is it optical (replacement for Chinese data) or SIGINT?
• P3 (Diplomatic Fallout): Kazakhstan Crash. Attribution of the AZAL crash "combat elements." Is this an RF S-300/400 stray?
• P4 (Tactical Reserve): Rodynske Vector. Confirm the scale of RF forces pushing toward Rodynske. Is this the "Otvazhnye" (Group Center) main effort shifting from Myrnohrad?

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MLCOA (Retaliatory Grid Strike): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) In response to the Orenburg/141-drone wave and leveraging the rising SAR activity at Monchegorsk, RF will launch a complex missile strike (Kh-101/555 + Caliber) targeting UAF energy distribution nodes in Central Ukraine (Cherkasy/Kyiv) tonight.
• MDCOA (Southern Isolation): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF exploits the reported damage to the Odesa bridge with follow-up precision strikes (Iskander-M) on the pontoon crossings to fully sever the Romanian supply route before New Year logistics arrive.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Air Defense (National): ALERT STATE RED. Prepare for mass missile salvo from Olenya/Monchegorsk vector. Prioritize protection of 750kV substations in Central Ukraine NLT 2025-12-25 2000Z.
2. Intelligence (GEOINT): ODESA VERIFICATION. Task immediate satellite or commercial imagery pass over the Odesa bridge coordinates to verify status. If severed, activate alternative rail logistics via Moldova immediately.
3. Operational (Kupyansk): CONSOLIDATE GAINS. Reinforce the Zapadne bridgehead with mobile anti-tank teams. RF will likely react with artillery saturation to cover their tactical embarrassment.
4. Diplomatic (MFA): CASPIAN NARRATIVE. Prepare intelligence packages regarding the AZAL crash. If RF air defense culpability is confirmed, leverage this with Kazakhstan to restrict RF airspace usage for Caspian flotilla strikes.

//END OF REPORT//