SUBJECT: DAILY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY – 2026-01-07 DTG: 2026-01-07T15:00Z AOR: Eastern Europe / Ukraine / Russian Federation Rear

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(NEW) The conflict has expanded significantly into the maritime domain with the US naval interdiction of Russian "Shadow Fleet" tankers (Marinera and Sophia) in the Atlantic; the Russian Federation (RF) Navy failed to intervene despite proximity. In the air domain, the predicted aviation surge from AB Voronezh Malshevo has transitioned from staging to execution, resulting in massed Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes across the Donbas and critical infrastructure failures in Kryvyi Rih. Concurrently, UAF deep-strike capabilities remain effective, confirmed by successful overnight hits on a Material-Technical Support (MTZ) warehouse and oil depot in Belgorod.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Maritime Escalation: CRITICAL SHIFT. The maritime "shadow war" has turned kinetic. Unlike the "threat" status in previous reports, US forces have physically seized two vessels (Marinera, Sophia). RF response has been diplomatic and narrative-based ("piracy") rather than naval-kinetic.
• Voronezh Malshevo Status: EXECUTION PHASE. The critical SAR spike (21.65) noted in the Jan 6 report has dropped to 0.68, indicating the mass departure/dispersal of airframes. This correlates with the high-intensity KAB bombardment currently reported in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia (1439Z).
• Kryvyi Rih Infrastructure: DEGRADED. Situation has deteriorated from "threatened" to "critical failure." Kinetic strikes have disabled the "Gorvodokanal" (water utility), causing city-wide water/power outages (1358Z).
• RF Force Structure: NEW. Confirmation of a dedicated RF "Unmanned Systems Force" (80,000 personnel), institutionalizing drone warfare as a separate service branch.
• Strategic Logistics Threat: NEW HOTSPOT. While Voronezh emptied, the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base (GRAU) shows a massive SAR spike to 18.95 (RISING), indicating imminent large-scale ammunition movement (likely MLRS/Iskander).

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

(SAR Score Legend: 0-5 Low/Routine | 5-15 Moderate/Monitor | 15+ High/Critical)

• Strategic Ammunition Surge (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL)
  • Indicators: 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base SAR Score 18.95 (RISING).
  • Assessment: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The rapid rise in activity at the 260th GRAU arsenal suggests the staging of a significant missile/rocket salvo. Based on historical patterns, a mixed-modal strike (Iskander/MLRS) targeting logistics nodes in Dnipro or Kharkiv is likely within 48-72 hours.
• Maritime Asymmetric Retaliation (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH)
  • Indicators: Seizure of Marinera/Sophia; RF MFA "piracy" rhetoric; Dempster-Shafer Belief of diplomatic/legal friction (0.14/0.10).
  • Assessment: (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) With the RF Navy proving passive in the Atlantic, Moscow will likely resort to asymmetric retaliation. Expect harassment of Western commercial shipping in the Black Sea, cyber-attacks on maritime insurers, or proxy attacks (Houthis) against Western vessels.
• ZNPP False Flag/Provocation (THREAT LEVEL: MEDIUM)
  • Indicators: Coordinated information operation framing Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) as a "Kyiv tool of war" (1459Z).
  • Assessment: (LOW CONFIDENCE) This narrative shaping often precedes RF-initiated "safety incidents" used to freeze the front lines or justify grid de-synchronization.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Maritime Domain:
  • Atlantic: US forces seized Cameroon-flagged M/T Sophia and Marinera. RF naval assets (submarine + surface) in the vicinity did not engage, signaling an unwillingness to risk direct NATO confrontation.
  • Black Sea: Odesa and Pivdenne ports struck by ballistic missiles (1427Z).
• Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kryvyi Rih):
  • Kryvyi Rih: Coordinated ballistic and UAV strikes caused severe damage to municipal water/power grids. Repair teams are active but under threat of "double-tap" strikes.
  • Zaporizhzhia: Active aerial bombardment (KABs) reported (0452Z).
• Eastern Axis (Donbas):
  • Donetsk Sector: Heavy KAB saturation (1439Z) facilitating RF ground probes.
  • Dobropillia: Unconfirmed RF reports of an advance in the "Dobropillia salient" (1026Z).
• Northern Axis (Sumy/Belgorod):
  • Belgorod: UAF successfully struck an MTZ warehouse and oil depot (1001Z), degrading "Zapad" Group logistics.
  • Sumy: Sector remains isolated following the Znobovka bridge destruction; no new crossing capability observed.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• P1 (Maritime): RF Fleet Orders. Did the RF naval detachment in the Atlantic receive a "hold fire" order, or was it a technical inability to intervene during the Marinera seizure?
• P1 (Ground Truth): Dobropillia Salient. Confirm/Deny RF claims of tactical gains in Dobropillia. (Crucial for protecting the H-15 highway).
• P2 (Logistics): 260th GRAU Payload. What specific munition types are moving from the 260th Base? (Distinguishes between a tactical MLRS threat vs. strategic ballistic missile threat).

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

• MLCOA (Infrastructure Strangulation): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will exploit the critical failure in Kryvyi Rih by maintaining a high UAV tempo to prevent repairs, aiming to freeze the municipal water system during winter conditions. This serves a dual purpose: humanitarian pressure and degrading the industrial base supporting the Southern front.
• MDCOA (Asymmetric Naval Strike): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) In retaliation for the Marinera, RF utilizes "unknown" proxies or drifting mines to strike a Western grain carrier in the Black Sea corridor within 24 hours, plausible deniability maintained via the "Piracy" narrative.
• Tactical Forecast: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The SAR spike at the 260th GRAU Arsenal (18.95) indicates a major resupply train is moving. Expect a significant intensification of indirect fire or missile strikes on the Dnipro-Pavlohrad logistics hub NLT 2026-01-09.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Maritime Warning: TRIGGER: Immediate. ACTION: Issue a NOTAM/Navigational Warning to all merchant vessels in the Grain Corridor regarding high risk of RF asymmetric harassment or "inspections." Advise hugging territorial waters.
2. Kryvyi Rih Resilience: TRIGGER: Confirmed Gorvodokanal failure. ACTION: Deploy military engineering units with mobile generators and heavy-duty pumps to Kryvyi Rih immediately to bypass damaged municipal infrastructure and prevent system freezing.
3. Counter-IO (Piracy): TRIGGER: Ongoing RF "Piracy" narrative. ACTION: StratCom to release declassified evidence of Marinera/Sophia involvement in illegal "Shadow Fleet" operations (sanctions evasion) to control the legal narrative globally.
4. Satellite Tasking: TRIGGER: Rising score at 260th GRAU. ACTION: Re-task SAR/Optical satellites to track rail output from the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base to determine destination (Kharkiv vs. Donbas axis).

//END OF REPORT//