SUBJECT: DAILY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY – 2025-12-17 DTG: 2025-12-17T15:00Z

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(CRITICAL) SOUTHERN FLANK BREACH & LOGISTICS DEGRADATION: The tactical situation in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast has deteriorated with confirmed Russian Federation (RF) control of Herasymivka, establishing a bridgehead 1km deep on the western bank of the Gaychur River. This maneuver is synchronized with a successful logistics strangulation campaign in Odesa Oblast, where strikes have caused a critical power outage in Artsyz expected to last until 26 December, severely degrading the Southern Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC). While UAF forces have successfully stabilized Kupyansk (reclaiming 90% territory) and repelled assaults at Pokrovsk, the expansion of Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes into Zaporizhzhia City signals a theater-wide escalation intended to fix UAF reserves while the Southern flank is exploited.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Peschanoye/Gaychur (DETERIORATION): The threat has escalated from a "confirmed bridgehead" to an active tactical breach at Herasymivka (1km depth), actively threatening the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border.
• Kupyansk Sector (IMPROVEMENT): Changing from "fixing operations," UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi confirms UAF forces have regained control of 90% of Kupyansk, debunking earlier RF claims of capture.
• Odesa Logistics (DEGRADATION): The threat to the Southern GLOC has shifted from "attempted interdiction" to "confirmed denial" following the long-term power failure in Artsyz, effectively severing the electric rail link to Romania.
• Aerial Targeting (ESCALATION): RF targeting has shifted from frontline tactical support to direct strikes on major urban population centers (Zaporizhzhia City center) using KABs.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• Ground Maneuver (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL):
  • Southern Flank (Herasymivka): The bridgehead west of the Gaychur River is now 1km deep. RF Vostok Group is prioritizing the consolidation of this position to allow for heavy armor (Main Battle Tanks/Infantry Fighting Vehicles) insertion.
  • Pokrovsk (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH): Despite successful UAF defensive actions at Hryshyne/Myrnohrad, RF mechanized pressure remains constant.
  • Siversk: RF President Putin’s designation of Siversk as a "significant objective" indicates a likely shift of strategic reserves to this axis in the near term.
• Logistics & Sustainment (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL):
  • Odesa Corridor: The loss of power in Artsyz until 2025-12-26 creates a single point of failure for Southern supply.
  • SAR Analysis: The 260th GRAU Arsenal remains at Score 30.78 (High/Imminent Surge), indicating the artillery barrage expected to support the Southern breach is imminent.
  • Legend: SAR Score 0-5 (Low), 5-10 (Moderate), 10-25 (High), 25+ (Critical).
• Aerial/Missile (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL):
  • Urban KAB Campaign: The strike on Zaporizhzhia residential sectors (14:16Z) forces UAF to decide between protecting civilian centers or covering the deteriorating frontline at Gaychur.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk/Odesa):
  • Herasymivka: RF forces have advanced 2km along the front and 1km in depth west of the Gaychur River.
  • Zaporizhzhia City: Struck by KABs (12:00Z); casualties reported. This aims to disrupt UAF rear-area coordination for the Southern defense.
  • Artsyz: Critical infrastructure failure confirmed; rail logistics likely paralyzed due to lack of traction power.
  • Berdiansk: Unconfirmed UAF strike using "indigenous aircraft" reported (14:38Z). If true, this indicates a new deep-strike capability.
• Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Luhansk):
  • Pokrovsk: UAF repelled a motorized assault (14:32Z). RF ISR is active, claiming discovery of UAF UAV warehouses.
  • Lyman: UAF 66th Mechanized Brigade successfully engaged and attrited RF assault groups.
• Northeast Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy):
  • Kupyansk: UAF 429th Regiment "Achilles" and other units have cleared 90% of the city, stabilizing the northern shoulder.
  • Border: RF UAV infiltration detected crossing from Sumy to Chernihiv (14:05Z), indicating reconnaissance for deep strikes.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• P1 (CRITICAL): Heavy Armor at Herasymivka. While the breach is confirmed to 1km, have Main Battle Tanks (MBTs) crossed? Visual confirmation of heavy tracks west of the Gaychur River is the trigger for committing strategic reserves.
• P2 (URGENT): Artsyz Rail Capacity. Can diesel locomotives replace electric traction on the Artsyz line immediately, or is the line fully interdicted?
• P3 (PRIORITY): Berdiansk Strike Platform. Verification of the "indigenous strike aircraft" claim. Is this a modified trainer jet, a new drone, or a repurposed missile? Capability assessment is required for future targeting planning.
• P4 (PRIORITY): Siversk Force Generation. Following Putin's political signaling, are there indications of new unit arrivals (rail/road) in the Luhansk operational rear directed toward Siversk?

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MLCOA (Consolidation and Logistics Strangulation): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF Vostok Group will pause major advances at Herasymivka for 12-24 hours to fortify the 1km bridgehead and deploy air defense against UAF FPVs. Simultaneously, they will maximize air attacks (KABs/UAVs) on Zaporizhzhia and Odesa to prevent UAF from moving reserves to seal the breach. The 260th GRAU artillery surge will likely commence NLT 2025-12-18 0600Z to support the breakout.
• MDCOA (Operational Breakout): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) Utilizing the chaos from the Zaporizhzhia urban strikes, RF immediately pushes an armored spearhead from Herasymivka north towards the Dnipropetrovsk border before UAF defenses solidify, threatening to roll up the Velyka Novosilka defensive line from the rear.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Operations (IMMEDIATE - J3): CONTAIN HERASYMIVKA. Deploy immediate tactical aviation and heavy artillery assets to target the crossing points on the Gaychur River. The bridgehead must be isolated from the eastern bank before heavy armor crosses.
   • Trigger: Confirmation of pontoon bridges.
   • End State: Isolation of RF forward elements on the western bank.
2. Logistics (URGENT - J4): ACTIVATE "NORTHERN ROUTE". Due to the Artsyz power failure (until Dec 26), reroute all critical Class V (Ammo) and Class III (Fuel) shipments via the central rail lines immediately. Do not rely on diesel switchers in Artsyz due to high UAV threat.
3. ISR (PRIORITY - J2): FOCUS ON SIVERSK. Re-task satellite and high-altitude UAV assets to the occupied Luhansk rear to detect force generation destined for the Siversk axis following the new political directive.
4. Civil-Military (J9): ZAPORIZHZHIA EVACUATION. Prepare medical evacuation corridors for Zaporizhzhia City. The shift to urban KAB targeting suggests a sustained terror campaign; medical facilities will be strained.

//END OF REPORT//