SUBJECT: DAILY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY – 2025-12-26 DTG: 2025-12-26T16:00Z

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(TACTICAL CRISIS) HULIAIPOLE COLLAPSE & STRATEGIC AD OPPORTUNITY: The operational picture is defined by a critical deterioration in the Southern Sector, where Russian Federation (RF) forces have seized the Huliaipole city center following the compromise of the 106th Brigade's Command Post (KSP). Conversely, in Crimea, a Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) strike has created a significant gap in the RF Integrated Air Defense System (IADS) by neutralizing S-300V and Buk-M3 assets. SAR imagery indicates a massive logistical surge at RF rocket artillery bases, signaling an imminent, large-scale missile event targeting the Ukrainian energy grid within 24 hours.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Southern Front (Huliaipole): Situation downgraded from "stabilized" to CRITICAL/TACTICAL BREACH. Previous reports noted RF probing; current intelligence confirms RF 57th Brigade control of the central "Makhno Monument" and the loss of the UAF 106th Brigade KSP (1439Z).
• Crimean Air Defense: New successful degradation of RF AD. Unlike previous deep strikes on energy (Orenburg), HUR units successfully targeted active kill-chains (S-300V, Redut-221 C2) in Crimea (1439Z), creating a localized suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) window.
• Aerial Vector (Belarus): Confirmed shift in RF tactics to utilize Belarusian airspace for One-Way Attack UAV (OWA-UAV) transit (1336Z), flanking northern Ukrainian AD lines to strike Western regions (Volyn).
• Space Domain: The "emergency reconstitution" assessed in the previous report is now CONFIRMED. A Soyuz-2.1a was successfully launched (1433Z), placing a military ISR satellite in orbit to mitigate the loss of Chinese commercial imagery data.
• Northern Front (Kupyansk): UAF success confirmed. UAF forces have reached the Oskil River line, with RF sources admitting "catastrophe" and communication ruptures in this sector.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

(SAR Score Legend: 0-5 Low/Routine | 5-15 Moderate/Monitor | 15+ High/Critical)

• Mass Missile Strike (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL):
  • SAR Analysis: 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base (GRAU) shows an extreme activity spike to Score 21.30 (RISING). This correlates with the previous report's bomber base activity.
  • Assessment: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The 260th GRAU base is likely on-loading munitions for immediate transfer to launch platforms. Combined with the "blackout warning" from Ukrenergo, a multi-vector strike (Air/Sea/Land) is expected NLT 2025-12-27 0600Z.
• Zaporizhzhia Flank (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH):
  • Indicator: RF 57th Bde penetration of Huliaipole center + unverified claims of 102nd Bde HQ capture.
  • Assessment: (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) The collapse of the urban center threatens the lateral Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) T0518. If RF forces pivot north, they threaten to envelop UAF units in the Eastern Zaporizhzhia sector.
• Civilian Logistics Interdiction (THREAT LEVEL: MEDIUM):
  • Indicator: Shift in KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) targeting in Kharkiv from general urban to specific highways/transport nodes (1436Z).
  • Assessment: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF is attempting to paralyze civilian evacuation and military rotation capabilities within the city to induce panic and logistical friction.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Southern Sector (Huliaipole):
  • Status: Red. RF forces hold the city center. Fighting has shifted to the western and southern outskirts.
  • Losses: 106th Brigade KSP overrun; sensitive comms equipment/data likely compromised.
• Crimean Theater:
  • Strike: HUR drone strike destroyed: 1x S-300V launcher, 1x "Redut-221" C2 vehicle, 1x Buk-M3 radar.
  • Impact: Creates a "blind spot" in the peninsula's northern AD coverage.
• Eastern Axis (Kupyansk/Pokrovsk):
  • Kupyansk: UAF holds initiative; established defensive line along the Oskil River.
  • Pokrovsk: RF utilizing "Kuriyer" UGVs (Unmanned Ground Vehicles) and modular armor kits to counter UAF FPV dominance; urban fighting continues in "Lazurnyi" district.
• Rear Area (Western Ukraine):
  • Volyn: OWA-UAV strike caused power outage for 8,000 subs.
  • Belarus: Active transit of OWA-UAVs through Belarusian airspace targeting Khmelnytskyi.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• P1 (Defensive Line Integrity): Huliaipole FEBA. Determine the current Forward Edge of the Battle Area. Has a cohesive defensive line been re-established west of the city, or are units conducting a disorganized retrograde?
• P2 (Exploitation Window): Crimea AD Coverage. Precise mapping of the radar coverage gap created by the destruction of the S-300V/Redut-221 complex to facilitate ATACMS flight planning.
• P3 (SIGINT Compromise): 106th Bde Data. Assess the scope of cryptographic compromise from the captured KSP in Huliaipole. Are tactical radio keys for the entire sector blown?

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MLCOA (Coordinated Grid Destruction): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will execute a synchronized mass strike tonight.
  • Vectors: OWA-UAVs via Belarus (to exhaust AD) + Caliber/Kh-101 from South/East.
  • Targets: 750kV substations (to force grid collapse) and Odesa logistics (Vylkove/Mayaki).
  • Trigger: SAR spike at 260th GRAU suggests munitions are already in transit.
• MDCOA (Zaporizhzhia Breakthrough): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) Leveraging the confusion in Huliaipole and the captured communications data, RF mechanised reserves (Vostok Group) launch a rapid night assault to breach the secondary defensive belts toward Orikhiv, aiming to collapse the Southern Front's eastern shoulder.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Strike Operations (Crimea): EXECUTE PRE-PLANNED OPTIONS. Immediate authorization recommended for ATACMS/Storm Shadow strikes against RF aviation assets in Crimea (Saky/Belbek), utilizing the newly created AD gap before RF can redeploy mobile radars.
2. Communications Security (COMSEC): EMERGENCY KEY ROLLOVER. Immediate "JAZZ" procedure (emergency crypto change) for all units in the Zaporizhzhia Operational Grouping due to the loss of 106th KSP. Assume all current tactical voice comms are monitored.
3. Force Disposition (Huliaipole): BLOCKING POSITION. Deploy tactical reserves (Brigade-level anti-tank reserve) to the western outskirts of Huliaipole NLT 2025-12-26 2000Z to prevent RF breakout onto the highway.
4. Air Defense (National): SECTOR NORTH REINFORCEMENT. Re-orient long-range radar detection toward the Belarusian border vector to counter the flanking OWA-UAV threat targeting the Volyn/Rivne energy nodes.

//END OF REPORT//