SUBJECT: DAILY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY – 2025-12-06 15:00:57Z

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(CRITICAL) MLD LAUNCH NLT 2100Z & AIR DEFENSE EXPLOITATION WINDOW: The Russian Federation (RF) 37th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (GMRB) Main Effort Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk is confirmed for initiation NLT 2025-12-06T2100Z. A critical, perishable tactical opportunity has emerged following the confirmed destruction of an RF Buk-M3 Air Defense system, creating a void in the Stepnohorsk sector that must be exploited immediately. However, the operational reserve ("BRAVO-BLOCK") remains threatened by "Mangas" Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) aerial mining and a new logistical bottleneck caused by a confirmed RF strike on the Fastiv rail hub, which complicates reinforcement throughput.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Operational Status (KINETIC TRIGGER): The MLD window has tightened from "Imminent" to a confirmed execution timeline NLT 2025-12-06T2100Z.
• Logistical Status (LOGISTICAL PARALYSIS): Previous reporting warned of threats to Zolotonosha; new intelligence confirms a successful RF strike on Fastiv (Kyiv Oblast) rail infrastructure (04:06Z), degrading central rail throughput. This is a materialized risk, not just a threat.
• Tactical Air Defense (OPPORTUNITY): Unlike the previous assessment of robust RF AD, a Buk-M3 system was destroyed in the Zaporizhzhia sector, creating a temporary air superiority window (NLT 1500Z) for UAF deep strikes.
• Flank Threat (ACTIVATION): The 38th GMRB threat at Huliaipole has transitioned from a "potential gap" to confirmed shaping fires by the RF Vostok Group, validating the Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA).
• IO Narratives (SHIFT): The IO focus has pivoted from internal corruption (Skorod) to external "EU Dissolution" and "Peace Trap" narratives (e.g., Musk/Kushner rumors) designed to induce diplomatic paralysis.
• SAR Indicators: 18th Guards Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment HQ activity has surged to Score 42.26 - RISING, likely indicating a frantic C2 reorganization to compensate for the lost Buk-M3 or to cover the MLD launch.
  • Legend: SAR Score 0-5 (Low), 5-10 (Moderate), 10-25 (High), 25+ (Critical).

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• Aerial Mining & Counter-Mobility (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL): The "Mangas" UAS threat remains the primary inhibitor to the "BRAVO-BLOCK" reserve. Without heavy Electronic Warfare (EW) and Mine Clearing Line Charge (MCLC) leads, reserves risk piecemeal destruction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Logistical Strangulation (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL): The confirmed hit on Fastiv combined with the persistent threat to Zolotonosha (NLT 1800Z) aims to sever Class V (Ammo) and Class VII (Major End Items) supply to the Southern Front immediately as the MLD launches. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Flank Encirclement (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH): Confirmed artillery preparation on the Huliaipole flank suggests the 38th GMRB is preparing to bypass UAF defenses while the 37th GMRB fixes them frontally. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Diplomatic/Cognitive Coercion (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH): Coordinated narratives regarding "Secret Negotiations" and "EU Collapse" are timed to delay National Command Authority (NCA) decision-making regarding reserve commitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Zaporizhzhia Front:
  • RF: 37th GMRB in final assembly; VDV infiltrating urban periphery. Buk-M3 destroyed. 38th GMRB active on Huliaipole flank.
  • UAF: "BRAVO-BLOCK" reserve movement ordered NLT 1600Z. Mining operations conducted on R. Haichur bridge to slow RF flankers.
• Deep Battle:
  • RF: Successful strike on Fastiv rail junction. New strike vectors observed over Volyn and Vinnytsia, shifting targeting west to interdict NATO aid flow.
  • UAF: Confirmed successful strikes on Ryazan NPZ (Oil Refinery) and Uryupinsk Oil Storage, creating an impending RF fuel crisis (T+48h). Large-scale UAF UAV strike (116 drones) conducted against RF rear.
• Information Domain:
  • RF: Massive amplification of "EU Fragmentation" and "Peace Deals" to deter Western support.
  • UAF: Leveraging "Armed Forces Day" and deep strike successes (Ryazan) to bolster domestic morale.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• PRIORITY 1 (MANEUVER): 38th GMRB Posture. Is the 38th GMRB moving in column formation for a breakthrough, or remaining dispersed? Confirmation is required to trigger the Huliaipole holding force.
• PRIORITY 2 (BDA): Fastiv Rail Throughput. Urgent assessment needed on the operational capacity of the Fastiv junction. Can it support heavy armor transit, or must reserves reroute immediately?
• PRIORITY 3 (TECH/EW): "Mangas" C2 Frequencies. Specific control links for the "Mangas" system remain unidentified, hampering effective jamming along the reserve corridor.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MLCOA (Mined Breakthrough & Logistical Delay): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF launches 37th GMRB MLD NLT 2025-12-06T2100Z. The "BRAVO-BLOCK" reserve is delayed by "Mangas" minefields and logistical friction from the Fastiv strike. RF achieves a tactical breach at Stepnohorsk, securing Phase Line ALPHA before UAF reserves can effectively counter-attack.
• MDCOA (Operational Encirclement): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF exploits the Fastiv logistical paralysis and strikes Zolotonosha tonight. Simultaneously, the 38th GMRB bypasses Huliaipole (unseen due to ISR gaps), encircling the immobilized UAF defenders at Stepnohorsk who are low on Class V due to supply line cuts.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Operational Maneuver (IMMEDIATE - J3): EXECUTE "BRAVO-BLOCK" WITH MCLC LEAD NLT 1600Z. Do not wait for full route clearance. Mechanized reserves must move now with Mine Clearing Line Charges (MCLC) and rollers leading the column. Integrate Bukovel-AD EW systems into the vanguard to jam "Mangas" uplinks.
2. Fires & Targeting (IMMEDIATE - J3): EXPLOIT BUK VOID. Immediately task deep-strike UAS (Bayraktar/Switchblade) to saturate the sector west of Stepnohorsk (NLT 1800Z) to attrite 37th GMRB assault elements before they cross the Line of Departure, exploiting the loss of the RF Buk-M3.
3. Logistics (URGENT - J4): ACTIVATE FASTIV BYPASS. Immediately reroute all Class V/VII shipments destined for the Southern Front via the Lviv-Zviahel-Dnipro alternative route. Do not rely on Fastiv repair timelines.
4. StratCom (IMMEDIATE - P7): COUNTER "PEACE TRAP" NARRATIVE. NCA must issue an immediate statement (coordinated with UK/US partners) reaffirming that no secret negotiations are occurring, framing the rumors as "RF desperation" attempting to distract from their logistical failures at Ryazan/Temryuk.

//END OF REPORT//