SUBJECT: DAILY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY – 2025-12-28 DTG: 2025-12-28T15:00Z

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(STRATEGIC PIVOT) DIPLOMATIC CULMINATION & TACTICAL WIDENING: The operational environment has reached a critical juncture defined by the high-stakes meeting between President Zelenskyy and Donald Trump (scheduled 20:00 Kyiv time). Coinciding with this diplomatic window, the Russian Federation (RF) has widened its offensive breadth, launching a new high-intensity push in Western Zaporizhzhia (Primorske) while introducing fresh regimental forces (7th Regiment) to "burn out" defenses in Kharkiv. Concurrently, the RF strategic air campaign against Naftogaz infrastructure has expanded to central logistics hubs (Poltava) and the South (Kherson TPP).

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Southern Front Expansion: NEW SECTOR ACTIVATION. Previous reporting focused on Huliaipole. Current intelligence (1458Z) confirms a significant widening of the offensive to the Primorske direction (Western Zaporizhzhia), threatening a broader collapse of the southern defensive belt.
• Pokrovsk Status: STABILIZATION INDICATORS. Contrary to previous assessments of potential collapse following the fall of Myrnohrad, UAF 7th Corps (DShV) is now confirmed holding the northern industrial sectors of Pokrovsk, establishing a temporary defensive anchor.
• Technological Shift: NEW CAPABILITY. First confirmed tactical employment of Fiber-Optic FPV Drones by UAF (Signum Bn) in Serebryanske Forest (1416Z), successfully bypassing RF Electronic Warfare (EW). Conversely, RF has deployed "Omich" robotic platforms specifically for water crossings (1002Z).
• Strategic Threat (Aviation): SAR SURGE. SAR analysis identifies a massive activity spike at AB Shaykovka (Score 44.37 - RISING), contrasting with the previous report's focus on the 2652nd Artillery Base. This indicates imminent heavy bomber activity.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

(SAR Score Legend: 0-5 Low/Routine | 5-15 Moderate/Monitor | 15+ High/Critical)

• Strategic Aerial Strike (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL):
  • SAR Analysis: AB Shaykovka (Tu-22M3 base) displays a dramatic surge to Score 44.37 (RISING). Simultaneously, the 183rd Guards AA Regiment dropped to Score 0.00, suggesting it has fully deployed from garrison to operational firing positions.
  • Assessment: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The surge at Shaykovka strongly correlates with a prepared mass-missile strike, likely timed to coincide with the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting (NLT 2025-12-28 1800Z) to exert maximum psychological pressure.
• Riverine Breach Capability (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH):
  • Indicator: Deployment of "Omich" amphibious robotic complexes + RF 7th Regiment "clearing" operations.
  • Assessment: (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF is preparing for a mechanized water crossing, likely targeting the Oskil River (Kupyansk) or waterways near Stepnohirsk to bypass blown bridges.
• Rear Area Sabotage (THREAT LEVEL: MEDIUM):
  • Indicator: Reports of "threatening tendencies" and "sabotage/infiltration" in the Donbas tactical rear (1459Z).
  • Assessment: (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF Special Operations Forces (SOF) are attempting to replicate the "blind and cut" tactics used in Pokrovsk against UAF Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs) in the wider Donbas sector.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Diplomatic/Strategic:
  • Trump-Zelenskyy Meeting: Scheduled for 20:00 Kyiv (13:00 EST). Expected output is a joint call to European leaders. RF Information Operations (IO) pre-positioning narratives of "failure."
• Eastern Axis:
  • Pokrovsk: UAF 7th Corps (DShV) has stabilized the northern sector. RF counter-narratives claim failed UAF counter-attacks.
  • Lyman: UAF leveraging fiber-optic drones to negate RF EW superiority in forestry combat.
  • Donbas Rear: Increased risk of sabotage against C2 nodes.
• Southern Axis:
  • Zaporizhzhia: Kinetic activity expanded to Primorske. RF using Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) west of Huliaipole to preserve infantry.
  • Kherson: Confirmed strike on Kherson Thermal Power Plant (TPP) (1425Z). Heating infrastructure critical damage expected.
• Northern Axis:
  • Kharkiv/Kupyansk: RF 7th Regiment engaged in high-intensity "clearing," reportedly using incendiary/thermobaric munitions ("burning out"). "Omich" platforms arrived in theater.
• Russian Rear:
  • Space: Successful Soyuz 2.1b launch (1440Z) replenished RF orbital ISR capabilities ("Lobachevsky" sat).

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• P1 (New Weapons): "Omich" Location. Urgent geolocation of the "Omich" amphibious robots is required. Are they staged for the Oskil (North) or the Dnipro tributaries (South)?
• P2 (Enemy Order of Battle): Primorske Offensive. Identification of the RF unit conducting the new push in Primorske. Is it a rotation of the Vostok Group or a commitment of strategic reserves?
• P3 (Infrastructure): Poltava/Kherson BDA. Battle Damage Assessment on the Poltava energy facility (0939Z) and Kherson TPP to determine rail logistics viability and heating grid islanding risks.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MLCOA (Diplomatic Spoiler Strike): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Leveraging the readiness at Shaykovka AB (SAR Score 44.37), RF will launch a complex missile/drone strike targeting Kyiv and Western energy hubs between 1700Z and 2100Z today to disrupt the Zelenskyy-Trump diplomatic window and force a "crisis atmosphere."
• MDCOA (Riverine Breakthrough): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) Under cover of the "spoiler strike," RF utilizes the 7th Regiment and "Omich" robots to force a crossing of the Oskil River near Kupyansk, attempting to envelop UAF units currently conducting clearing operations in the city center.
• Secondary Prediction (IO): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Regardless of the Miami meeting outcome, RF state media will amplify "failure" narratives and push the "Russian-Chinese Alliance" messaging (Lavrov/Taiwan statements) to deter European cohesion.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Air Defense Alert: CONDITION RED. Activate maximum readiness for all Point Defense assets protecting Kyiv government quarters and energy hubs NLT 2025-12-28 1600Z due to Shaykovka bomber indications.
2. Targeting Priority: HUNT "OMICH". Drone ISR teams in Kupyansk and Stepnohirsk sectors must prioritize the identification and destruction of "Omich" robotic platforms. Their destruction is a Go/No-Go criteria for preventing RF river crossings.
3. Technology Scaling: FIBER-OPTIC DEPLOYMENT. Based on Signum Battalion's success (1416Z), immediately authorize the transfer of fiber-optic drone stocks to units facing high-density EW environments in the Pokrovsk North sector.
4. Information Operations: PRE-BUTTAL. Release a preemptive statement highlighting the expected RF "diplomatic spoiler" strike to frame any incoming attacks as a sign of RF desperation regarding the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting, rather than a show of strength.

//END OF REPORT//