SUBJECT: DAILY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY – 2025-12-24 DTG: 2025-12-24T15:00Z

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(STRATEGIC ESCALATION) DIPLOMATIC HARDENING & NEW OFFENSIVE FOCUS: The strategic landscape has hardened significantly with the Russian Federation (RF) officially rejecting the 20-point peace plan (1441Z), signaling an intent to prolong kinetic operations through the winter. The operational center of gravity has shifted to Myrnohrad, where RF has committed approximately 10 maneuver units in "banzai-style" mechanized assaults. A critical intelligence breach is confirmed: RF is utilizing Chinese satellite imagery to coordinate strikes, neutralizing some Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) operational security measures. Meanwhile, the energy crisis has deepened to a critical stage with DTEK confirming a 50% loss of generation capacity, necessitating 15-20 hour rolling blackouts.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Main Effort (SHIFTED): The primary RF offensive weight has shifted from the broad Pokrovsk sector (previous report) specifically to Myrnohrad, marked by the commitment of 10 distinct units and heavy mechanized "banzai" tactics to break the "Chervona Kalyna" Brigade.
• Targeting Intelligence (NEW): Distinct from the previous report's focus on Starlink/drones, President Zelenskyy confirmed RF use of Chinese commercial satellite imagery for strike coordination, reducing the "sensor-to-shooter" loop for RF missile assets.
• UAF Air Capability (UPGRADED): Sweden formally announced the commencement of training for UAF pilots on JAS 39 Gripen fighters, establishing a concrete timeline for future air parity.
• Deep Strike Targets (EXPANDED): UAF operations have expanded from energy/logistics targets to the RF industrial base, confirmed by a successful Special Operations (SBS) strike on the "Shchekinoazot" chemical plant in Tula.
• Internal Security (DEGRADED): Unlike the previous report's stable rear area assessment, a fatal explosion in Moscow (killing two police officers) and "command problems" in the Kupyansk sector indicate growing internal friction and command and control (C2) stress.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

(SAR Score Legend: 0-5 Low/Routine | 5-15 Moderate/Monitor | 15+ High/Critical)

• Grid Collapse (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL):
  • Indicator: DTEK confirmation of 50% capacity loss and strike on Ukrnafta facilities.
  • Assessment: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The energy system has lost redundancy. With temperatures at 0°C, further strikes on frequency-regulation nodes (Interconnects) in Cherkasy or Kropyvnytskyi will likely cause uncontrolled regional islanding.
• Unmanned Professionalization (THREAT LEVEL: RISING):
  • Indicator: Moscow Mayor publicly recruiting "gamers" for "Unmanned Forces"; 20-point peace plan rejection.
  • Assessment: (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF is institutionalizing drone warfare to mitigate infantry shortages. This moves the threat from ad-hoc usage to standardized, mass-mobilized drone cadres.
• Logistics Resupply (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH):
  • SAR Analysis: Missile Arsenal (GRAU) score spiked to 48.32 (RISING).
  • Assessment: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) A massive logistical throughput is underway. The spike in SAR activity at central depots correlates with the rejection of peace talks, indicating preparation for a sustained winter artillery offensive.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Eastern Axis (Myrnohrad/Kupyansk):
  • Myrnohrad: RF has committed ~10 units to a concentrated breach attempt. UAF "Chervona Kalyna" Brigade is repelling heavy mechanized assaults but facing ammunition constraints.
  • Kupyansk: RF offensive momentum is stalling due to reported C2 breakdown; milbloggers describe the sector as "problematic," offering UAF a temporary tactical window.
• Northern Axis (Chernihiv/Sumy):
  • Chernihiv: High-intensity UAV and missile strikes on residential and energy infrastructure (1416Z).
  • Kharkiv: UAF 3rd Separate Assault Brigade (3rd OShBr) successfully employed "ReDrone" program assets to counter RF localized pushes.
• Deep Rear Operations:
  • Tula (RF): Confirmed strike on "Shchekinoazot" plant disrupts chemical precursors for explosives/propellants.
  • Moscow (RF): Fatal explosion in Orekhovo-Borisovo district; possible partisan activity targeting internal security forces (siloviki).
• Diplomatic/Strategic:
  • Sanctions Evasion: Reports identify RF citizens utilizing fraudulent Romanian citizenship to maintain EU access and logistics flows (1456Z).

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• P1 (Targeting Support): Chinese Imagery Providers. Identify specific commercial entities providing satellite imagery to the RF MoD to facilitate targeted sanctions/diplomatic pressure.
• P2 (Order of Battle): Myrnohrad Composition. Urgent identification of the "10 units" committed to Myrnohrad. Are these reconstituted strategic reserves or lateral redeployments from the stalled Kupyansk front?
• P3 (BDA): Tula Chemical Plant. Specific damage assessment of the "Shchekinoazot" facility. Did the strike compromise the production of nitrogen-based explosive precursors?
• P4 (Internal Stability): Moscow Explosion. Confirm attribution of the Moscow explosion. If partisan/SBS-linked, it represents a new capability to strike inside the capital's security ring.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MLCOA (Energy Strangulation & Myrnohrad Surge): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will utilize the 15-20 hour blackout window to degrade UAF C2. Simultaneously, the 10 units at Myrnohrad will launch continuous echeloned attacks overnight to exploit the lack of visual coverage. Aerial strikes will likely focus on Cherkasy and Kropyvnytskyi to sever energy transit to the operational rear.
• MDCOA (Strategic "Holiday" Strike): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) Leveraging the rejection of the peace plan and the "Oreshnik" assets in Belarus, RF conducts a massive saturation strike (Missile + UAV) on Kyiv and Western energy hubs during the Christmas holiday window (Dec 25), aiming for a psychological blow and total grid collapse while European partners are on holiday stand-down.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Diplomatic/Sanctions (IMMEDIATE - MFA): SATELLITE BLOCKADE. Initiate immediate high-level demarches with Beijing and Western satellite aggregators regarding the use of Chinese imagery for RF targeting. Prepare evidence packages for secondary sanctions.
2. Operational Maneuver (Donbas): ANTI-ARMOR SURGE. Prioritize the resupply of heavy ATGM (Javelin/Stugna-P) to the "Chervona Kalyna" Brigade in Myrnohrad NLT 2025-12-25 0600Z. The "banzai" tactic relies on overwhelming defensive density; additional AT assets are required to break the momentum.
3. Counter-Intelligence (Border Control): ROMANIAN NEXUS. Strengthen screening at Western border crossings for individuals traveling on recently issued Romanian documents. Coordinate with EUropol to investigate the fraudulent citizenship pipeline identified at 1456Z.
4. Air Defense (Central): VECTOR SHIFT. Reorient mid-range AD assets to cover the Kryvyi Rih – Kropyvnytskyi – Cherkasy vector. Current missile transits indicate this is the primary corridor for bypassing Southern AD clusters.

//END OF REPORT//