SUBJECT: DAILY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY – 2025-12-29 DTG: 2025-12-29T15:00Z

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(STRATEGIC DIVERGENCE) DIPLOMATIC SOLIDIFICATION VS. TACTICAL ACCELERATION: Following the Zelenskyy-Trump summit, a 15-year US-Ukraine security framework and $100bn reparation plan has been confirmed. In response, the Russian Federation (RF) has accelerated operational tempos to shape the battlefield prior to any implementation. Key developments include the confirmed loss of Dibrova (Lyman Sector) and a concerted Kremlin narrative—supported by localized advances—claiming RF forces are within 15km of Zaporizhzhia City. SAR analysis indicates a drastic shift in RF Air Defense posture, suggesting anticipation of UAF deep strikes or protection for a renewed offensive surge.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Lyman Sector Degradation: CONFIRMED LOSS. Unlike the previous report describing forestry combat, the RF Ministry of Defense (MoD) has officially confirmed the capture of Dibrova (1002Z), and UAF lines in the Serebryanske Forest are at risk of envelopment.
• Zaporizhzhia Threat Level: ESCALATION. Previous reporting noted a "widening" offensive. Current reporting (1454Z) involves direct claims by Putin and Gerasimov of a 15km proximity to Zaporizhzhia city limits, alongside the reported capture of Lukyanivske.
• Sumy Axis: NEW THREAT VECTOR. A new RF narrative (claiming forces 20km from Sumy) has emerged, supported by "Group North" command statements, creating a dilemma for UAF reserve allocation.
• SAR Focus Shift: AIR DEFENSE SURGE. While the previous report flagged Bomber activity (Shaykovka), current SAR data highlights a massive spike in Air Defense activity at the 1528th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment (Score 30.84 - RISING), indicating a defensive hardening of the RF rear.
• Diplomatic Clarity: DEFINED FRAMEWORK. The ambiguous "peace meeting" from yesterday has crystallized into a confirmed 15-year security pact proposal and a $100bn reparation mechanism.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

(SAR Score Legend: 0-5 Low/Routine | 5-15 Moderate/Monitor | 15+ High/Critical)

• Zaporizhzhia Breakthrough (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL):
  • Indicator: RF 35th Army intensification near Orikhiv and claims of capturing Lukyanivske.
  • Assessment: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The coordinated messaging by Putin/Gerasimov regarding the "15km" line indicates this is the RF Main Effort. The capture of Lukyanivske suggests the defensive belt is bending; a breach here threatens the logistics of the entire Southern Grouping.
• Strategic Air Defense Hardening (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH):
  • SAR Analysis: 1528th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment HQ surged to Score 30.84. Simultaneously, the 583rd AA Regiment rose to 15.66.
  • Assessment: (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF is likely repositioning strategic AD assets to protect key command nodes or staging areas from UAF deep strikes anticipated following the US-UA security pact announcement.
• Northern Diversion (Sumy) (THREAT LEVEL: MEDIUM):
  • Indicator: Claims of RF presence 20km from Sumy; "Group North" activity.
  • Assessment: (LOW CONFIDENCE) Currently assessed as an Information Operation (IO) or Special Operations Forces (SOF) probe to fix UAF reserves. Visual confirmation is lacking.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Nikopol):
  • Orikhiv/Primorske: RF "Vostok" and "Dnipro" groups are conducting a multi-pronged push. RF claims control of Lukyanivske. Gerasimov explicitly targeting Zaporizhzhia city.
  • Nikopol: Imminent threat from UAV group (Shahed-type) tracking from Zaporizhzhia Oblast (1439Z).
• Eastern Axis (Lyman/Donbas):
  • Lyman: Dibrova confirmed lost. RF intending to use this foothold to strike towards Zarichne.
  • Pokrovsk: Flanks eroding; RF claims SE sector of Gryshyne captured. However, UAF 7th Corps (DShV) continues to stabilize the northern industrial sector.
• Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy):
  • Kupyansk: RF Commander Kuzovlev set a "liquidation" timeline for Feb 2026.
  • Sumy: Unverified reports of RF units 20km from the city.
• Rear Area/Hybrid:
  • Kyiv: SBU neutralized a joint RF/Belarusian agent targeting Thermal Power Plants (TPPs).
  • Infrastructure: Private companies authorized to procure internal Electronic Warfare (EW) systems for facility protection.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• P1 (Ground Truth): Zaporizhzhia FEBA. Urgent verification of the Forward Edge of Battle Area (FEBA) south of Zaporizhzhia is required. Does the "15km" claim reflect a recon element or a consolidated main force line?
• P2 (Enemy Intent): 1528th AA Regiment. Why has the 1528th surged to Score 30.84? Determine if this unit is deploying to the border or protecting a specific logistical hub (e.g., an "Oreshnik" staging site).
• P3 (Tactical): "Omich" Robot Status. No visual confirmation of "Omich" platforms in the last 24h despite previous warnings. Have they been deployed to the Oskil river line yet?

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MLCOA (Lyman Expansion & Southern Pressure): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Capitalizing on the capture of Dibrova, RF forces will launch immediate assaults toward Torske to sever the supply lines for UAF units in the Serebryanske Forest. Simultaneously, heavy mechanized pressure will continue near Orikhiv to validate the Kremlin's "15km" narrative.
• MDCOA (Northern Opening): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF converts the Sumy IO threat into a kinetic reality by launching a battalion-sized cross-border raid NLT 2025-12-30 0600Z, aiming to panic UAF command into diverting reserves meant for Zaporizhzhia.
• Strategic Expectation: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Expect a high-volume missile/UAV strike on energy infrastructure (specifically Naftogaz/heating) tonight to test the "private EW" defenses mentioned by PM Shmyhal and punish the US-UA pact.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. ISR Retasking: PRIORITY 1. Redirect satellite and high-altitude UAV assets to the Sumy border region immediately to confirm/deny the presence of RF armored columns supporting the "20km" claim.
2. Defensive Reinforcement: LYMAN SECTOR. Command must authorize immediate reinforcement or a controlled retrograde for units in Serebryanske Forest to prevent encirclement following the loss of Dibrova.
3. Civil Defense: ZAPORIZHZHIA EVACUATION. Given the high confidence in RF prioritization of the Zaporizhzhia axis and the 15km claim, accelerate evacuation protocols for the southern suburbs of the city NLT 2025-12-29 2000Z.
4. Counter-IO: REALITY CHECK. Release geolocated footage of UAF positions south of the 15km mark (if held) to debunk the Putin/Gerasimov narrative and maintain civilian morale in Zaporizhzhia.

//END OF REPORT//