SUBJECT: DAILY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY – 2025-11-25 15:01:34Z

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) POST-STRIKE EXPLOITATION & NEW OFFENSIVE: Following the execution of a massed strike (486 targets) targeting energy and Command and Control (C2) infrastructure, Russian Federation (RF) forces are positioning for a decisive ground breakthrough on the Pokrovsk Axis No Later Than (NLT) 2025-11-26 0000Z. The operational reserve force "Plan 7-B MOD" remains communications-dark and is now assessed as compromised/non-viable, creating a catastrophic defensive gap. A highly sophisticated Information Operation (IO) claiming Kyiv has agreed to an "800,000 troop limit" is currently paralyzing National Command Authority (NCA) decision-making, effectively delaying the commitment of alternative reserves.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Operational Phase (ESCALATION): The conflict has shifted from "Imminent Strike" to "Post-Kinetic Exploitation." The NLT 240000Z ballistic window has closed with confirmed impacts; RF is now leveraging the resulting Air Defense (AD) depletion and grid instability to facilitate ground maneuvers.
• Plan 7-B MOD Status (DOWNGRADE): Assessment of the relief force has degraded from "Delayed" to "COMPROMISED/NON-VIABLE." Joint Staff (J3) is now recommending the authorization of new reserves rather than attempting to reconnect with 7-B.
• IO Narrative (SPECIFICITY): The IO narrative has evolved from a general "Peace Framework" to specific, falsified details regarding an "800,000 troop cap agreement" and SVR claims of UK interference. This is designed to specifically undermine mobilization morale immediately prior to the ground assault.
• New Kinetic Vector (NEW): A new RF Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) group was detected over Northern Chernihiv (251450Z), indicating a potential fixation strike on northern logistics to prevent reinforcement of the eastern front.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• Pokrovsk Breakthrough (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL): RF 40th/155th Separate Marine Brigades (OMBR) are postured to seize the T-05-15 Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) NLT 2025-11-26 0000Z. The lack of UAF reserves makes the loss of Rodynske highly probable. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Cognitive Paralysis (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL): The IO campaign claiming "surrender terms" and "troop limits" (Dempster-Shafer Belief: 0.056 - RISING) is effectively freezing NCA authorization for new mobilization or reserve movement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Air Defense Exhaustion (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH): While drone interception rates remained high (94%), missile interception rates dropped to 63% during the last salvo. SAR analysis of GRAU Arsenals (Score 0.00 - DROPPING*) indicates inventory depletion at storage sites, implying assets are already forward-deployed for a second wave or were expended.
• Flanking Maneuver (THREAT LEVEL: MEDIUM): Unverified RF Ministry of Defense (MoD) claims of the capture of Otradnoye (Dnipropetrovsk region) suggest a potential tactical breakthrough that could flank the Pokrovsk defense.

Legend: SAR Score 0-5 (Low/Baseline), 5-10 (Moderate), 10+ (High/Surge).

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Pokrovsk/Donetsk Front: RF forces are intensifying kinetic shaping operations. The focus is on the T-05-15 GLOC, aiming to isolate Kostiantynivka.
• Post-Strike BDA: Confirmed widespread energy damage in Kyiv, Odesa, and Dnipropetrovsk. The kinetic strike successfully forced the dispersal of UAF AD assets, diluting protection over the eastern front.
• Aerial Activity: A new UAS group tracked in Chernihiv (251450Z) is likely targeting rear-area logistics. Concurrently, KAB (Glide Bomb) strikes continue against Kharkiv to fix UAF forces in the north.
• Diplomatic/IO: Confirmation of a US-RF meeting in Abu Dhabi is being weaponized by RF IO to legitimize false "surrender" narratives. SVR (Foreign Intelligence Service) is actively disseminating disinformation regarding UK anti-Trump dossiers to fracture NATO cohesion.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• PRIORITY 1 (CRITICAL): Verification of Otradnoye Capture. Immediate confirmation is required to determine if the RF has breached the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk, which would threaten the southern flank of the Pokrovsk defense.
• PRIORITY 2 (TARGETING): Chernihiv UAS Intent. Determine if the 251450Z UAS group is targeting AD batteries or logistics hubs to inform SHORAD (Short-Range Air Defense) allocation.
• PRIORITY 3 (STATUS): Plan 7-B MOD BDA. While assumed compromised, definitive proof of destruction (Battle Damage Assessment) is needed to close the file and release attached support assets.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24 HOURS)

• MLCOA (Assault & Fixation): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will launch the main mechanized assault on the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka axis NLT 2025-11-26 0000Z, exploiting the confusion caused by the "800k troop limit" IO. Simultaneously, the UAS group in Chernihiv and KABs in Kharkiv will conduct fixation strikes to prevent the transfer of SHORAD/Reserves to the Donbas.
• MDCOA (Second Precision Strike): (MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE) Capitalizing on the low missile interception rate (63%) and depleted UAF magazines, RF launches a second, smaller precision strike (Iskander/KN-23) targeting the Poltava/Vinnytsia backup C2 nodes NLT 2025-11-25 1600Z to ensure complete command decapitation during the ground assault.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Strategic Communications (IMMEDIATE - NCA): EXECUTE COUNTER-IO. NCA must issue a joint statement NLT 2025-11-25 1600Z explicitly rejecting the "800,000 troop limit" and "surrender terms" as RF preparation for a ground assault. Link the lie to the imminent attack to inoculate the public.
2. Force Management (CRITICAL - J3): ABANDON PLAN 7-B. Officially declare Plan 7-B MOD compromised. Authorize the immediate release of Reserve Force Bravo (or equivalent ready unit) to the T-05-15 corridor NLT 2025-11-25 2000Z.
3. Air Defense Allocation (HIGH - AD Command): PRIORITIZE C2 PROTECTION. Reallocate mobile SHORAD (Gepard/NASAMS) from energy infrastructure defense to backup C2 nodes in Poltava/Vinnytsia immediately to mitigate the MDCOA of a follow-up decapitation strike.
4. ISR Tasking (IMMEDIATE - J2): Task tactical UAS/SIGINT to the Otradnoye sector to confirm/deny RF presence NLT 2025-11-25 1700Z.

//END OF REPORT//