SUBJECT: DAILY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY – 2025-12-31 DTG: 2025-12-31T15:00Z AOR: Eastern Europe / Ukraine / Russian Federation Rear

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(CRITICAL ALERT) IMMINENT SATURATION STRIKE & EASTERN BREACH: The operational tempo has reached a critical crescendo approaching the New Year transition. The most significant new development is the reported deterioration of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad defense line, with unconfirmed Russian Federation (RF) claims of Myrnohrad’s seizure and combat activity spilling toward the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border. Simultaneously, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) indicators at RF ammunition depots (Score 27.24 - CRITICAL) combined with multi-vector UAV ingress confirm preparations for a massive saturation strike against Ukrainian energy and decision-making centers expected between 1800Z and 0200Z.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Pokrovsk Axis: NEGATIVE SHIFT. Yesterday's report noted "pressure"; current intelligence (1309Z) describes the situation as "grim," with RF forces claiming the capture of Myrnohrad (Dimitrov) and DeepState confirming critical deterioration.
• Strategic Logistics: ALARMING SURGE. SAR analysis of the 260th GRAU Arsenal shows a score jump to 27.24 (up from ~16). This indicates a massive logistical push for heavy munitions, significantly exceeding routine supply rates reported yesterday.
• Hybrid Warfare: NEW THEATER. A subsea cable damage incident in the Gulf of Finland (reported 1324Z) indicates an expansion of RF hybrid operations against NATO/EU infrastructure, likely to deter support ahead of the Jan 3 summit.
• Naval Technology: TACTICAL ADAPTATION. Ukrainian Naval Forces (VMS ZSU) report RF is now actively copying Ukrainian maritime drone (USV) designs, shifting from passive harbor defense to potential offensive maritime capability.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

(SAR Score Legend: 0-5 Low/Routine | 5-15 Moderate/Monitor | 15+ High/Critical)

• Strategic Aerial Strike (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL)
  • Indicator: 260th GRAU Arsenal surged to Score 27.24 (CRITICAL); active multi-vector Shahed ingress (Odesa, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kryvyi Rih); removal of "Bankova" AD restrictions.
  • Assessment: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The surge in logistics activity confirms the loading of heavy munitions. Combined with the "retaliation" narrative for the Valdai incident, a mixed missile/UAV strike targeting the energy grid and Kyiv is imminent (NLT 2026-01-01T0200Z).
• Eastern Front Collapse (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH)
  • Indicator: RF MoD claims of "liberation" of Myrnohrad; reports of "Otvažnyje" (Group O) operating near Dnipropetrovsk border.
  • Assessment: (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) While full capture is unconfirmed, the defense in this sector is likely porous. A breach here opens the flank to Dnipropetrovsk, validating the mass evacuations noted in the previous report.
• Northern Escalation (THREAT LEVEL: RISING)
  • Indicator: Chief of General Staff Gerasimov inspected "Group North" (Sumy/Kharkiv border) on Dec 31.
  • Assessment: (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) High-level inspections typically precede offensive operations or major force rotations. This may signal the activation of the "infrastructure protection" reservists for a distraction offensive in Sumy.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Eastern Axis (Donbas):
  • Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad: DeepState reports "grim" tactical conditions. RF sources claim the capture of Myrnohrad; if true, this unhinges the northern flank of the Pokrovsk logistical hub.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Border: Unconfirmed reports of RF "Group O" elements engaging near the administrative border, attempting to exploit the chaotic evacuation environment.
• Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Odesa):
  • Zaporizhzhia: 38th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (GMRB) and 35th Army elements are conducting "year-end" spoiling attacks despite adverse weather.
  • Maritime: UAF VMS ZSU is pivoting to counter-USV operations as RF deploys copycat drone tech.
• Deep Strike Operations:
  • UAF Success: Confirmed strikes on the "Temp" plant (Yaroslavl, ~700km range) and Tuapse oil depot (Krasnodar Krai).
  • RF Impact: Moscow region experienced a 600k resident blackout; internal RF reports show flight delays and airport chaos.
• Information/Political:
  • Chechnya: Conflicting reports regarding Ramzan Kadyrov—rumors of hospitalization vs. automated Telegram activity. Potential instability in Chechen Rosgvardia units.
  • Hybrid IO: "Swan Lake" broadcast and fake "US aid block" narratives circulating to demoralize UAF defenders.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• P1 (Ground Truth): Status of Myrnohrad. Has the city center physically fallen to RF forces, or are fighting positions still held? Immediate confirmation required.
• P2 (Strategic Intent): Gerasimov's Location. Precise geolocation of Gerasimov's "Group North" inspection is needed to predict the vector of the next Northern push.
• P3 (Tech Capability): RF USV Specs. Are the new Russian maritime drones engaging via satellite (Starlink/Tillandsia) or Line-of-Sight? This dictates jamming requirements.
• P4 (Leadership): Kadyrov's Health. Definitive proof of life for Kadyrov is needed; his incapacitation could lead to the withdrawal of "Akhmat" units from the line.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MLCOA (New Year's Blitz): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Between 1800Z and 0200Z, RF will launch a maximum-effort strike using Shaheds to strip AD ammunition, followed by Kalibr/Iskander volleys targeting energy infrastructure in Kyiv, Lviv, and Odesa. Ground forces in Pokrovsk will utilize the noise cover to consolidate gains in Myrnohrad.
• MDCOA (Operational Breakthrough): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) Capitalizing on the "grim" situation in Myrnohrad, the 33rd GMRR (Dobropilsky salient) and Group O launch a synchronized push across the Dnipropetrovsk border tonight, aiming to create a fait accompli territorial gain before the Jan 3 summit.
• Wildcard: The Gulf of Finland cable damage may be a precursor to a broader maritime sabotage campaign; expect potential disruptions to Norway-Poland gas pipelines.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Immediate ISR Re-Tasking: MYRNOHRAD SECTOR. Shift high-resolution SAR and thermal drone assets to verify the Line of Contact (LOC) in Myrnohrad. If the city is lost, authorize mining of the M-04 highway approaches to Dnipro immediately.
2. Air Defense Alert: STATEWIDE RED. All AD units must conserve interceptors for cruise/ballistic threats expected post-1800Z. Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) should handle Shaheds to preserve Patriot/SAMP-T missiles for high-value targets.
3. Counter-Hybrid Measures: BALTIC LIAISON. Alert naval allies in the Baltic Sea regarding the RF USV development and cable cutting; request increased ASW/Surface monitoring.
4. Information Operation: KADYROV UNCERTAINTY. Amplify reports of Kadyrov’s health crisis via PsyOps channels targeting Chechen "Akhmat" units on the frontline to induce command paralysis or withdrawal.

//END OF REPORT//