U.S. military buildup in the Middle East has intensified to unprecedented levels since 2003, with two carrier strike groups, over 120 combat aircraft including F-22s and F-35s, and heavy airlift assets deployed amid President Trump's 10-15 day ultimatum to Iran for a nuclear deal; planning for potential strikes, including targeting Iranian leaders, is advanced. Iran and Russia concluded joint naval drills in the Gulf of Oman on February 19. Israel conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon, killing at least two in a Palestinian refugee camp near Sidon, targeting alleged Hamas infrastructure.
📍 Middle East📍 Gulf of Oman📍 Southern Lebanon
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The U.S. has deployed USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group (already in theater) and USS Gerald R. Ford en route, accompanied by 12 destroyers, dozens of F-22, F-35, F-15, and F-16 fighters, tankers, P-8 surveillance aircraft, and over 150 C-5M Globemaster cargo flights to bases in Jordan, Qatar, and Europe. This supports advanced planning for strikes potentially targeting Iranian nuclear sites, IRGC assets, or leadership, as per U.S. officials. Iran completed naval exercises with Russia featuring interoperability drills in the Gulf of Oman and northern Indian Ocean, while accelerating fortifications at Parchin. Israel struck Ein el-Hilweh refugee camp and sites in Sidon, claiming Hamas presence, amid ongoing ceasefire violations by Hezbollah.
Operational implications include heightened risk of miscalculation leading to wider conflict, with oil prices at 6-month highs due to Strait of Hormuz threats and proxy activations by Houthis or Hezbollah. Regional allies like Saudi Arabia and UAE are on alert, potentially drawing in more actors; spillover could affect global energy and shipping. Russian involvement signals anti-access/area denial support for Iran.
Likely next steps hinge on Trump's ultimatum deadline around March 2; monitor Iranian missile tests or proxy attacks. Intelligence gaps persist on Tehran's nuclear breakout timeline and proxy mobilization readiness.
