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The United States maintains its largest Middle East military buildup since 2003, with the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group in the Mediterranean and additional F-22 Raptors deploying to Israel, as last-ditch nuclear talks with Iran commence in Geneva amid President Trump's 48-hour deadline for action. Ukrainian drone strikes continue deep into Russia, with ongoing fires at the Kaleykino pumping station in Tatarstan forcing Transneft to cut Druzhba pipeline intake by 250,000 bpd and a separate attack killing seven at a western Russian fertilizer plant. US forces proceed with evacuation of their largest northeastern Syria base at Qasrak, transferring equipment and personnel to Iraq.
📍 Mediterranean Sea📍 Persian Gulf📍 Tatarstan Russia📍 Northeastern Syria
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US naval assets include the Gerald R. Ford and Abraham Lincoln carrier strike groups, supplemented by F-22s, F-35s, and additional airpower representing the heaviest concentration since the 2003 Iraq invasion; the Ford docked at Souda Bay, Crete, with Gulf states preparing for potential confrontation. Iran is seeking military support from Russia and China while readying IRGC forces for conflict. In Ukraine-Russia theater, SBU drones hit the Kaleykino station—key Druzhba hub—causing persistent tank fires and export disruptions, alongside a new strike on a chemical plant killing seven and injuring ten. US-led coalition convoys continue withdrawing from Qasrak base in Al-Hasakah, Syria, amid broader regional repositioning.
Operational implications include heightened risk of US-Iran war spilling into Gulf oil infrastructure and broader ME instability, with multiple nations urging evacuations from Iran; Russian energy vulnerabilities expose Europe-bound exports to further Ukrainian long-range strikes, amplifying economic pressure on Moscow without altering grinding front lines. Syria drawdown reduces US footprint against ISIS remnants and Iranian militias, potentially ceding ground to SDF or adversaries.
Likely next steps hinge on Geneva talks outcomes February 26, with Trump weighing strikes during State of the Union; monitor Iranian asset movements and US B-2/B-52 deployments. Intelligence gaps persist on exact IRGC mobilization scale and Druzhba repair timelines.
