Situation Update (0051Z FEB 03 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- KINETIC IMPACT: STRIKE ON KONOTOP (0039Z, Mayor Semenikhin/ASTRA, HIGH): A Russian strike destroyed a residential building in Konotop, Sumy Oblast. No casualties reported currently.
- NAVAL THREAT: KALIBR CARRIERS DEPLOYED (0046Z, RBC-UA/Monitoring, MEDIUM): Monitoring channels report the sortie of Kalibr cruise missile carriers into the Black Sea. Missile launches are assessed as imminent.
- GROUND OFFENSIVE: SVYATOGORSK VECTOR (0049Z, TASS/Marochko, LOW): Russian sources claim a multi-axis offensive toward Svyatogorsk, Tatyanovka, and Prishib (Yarova-Drobyshevo sector). [UNCONFIRMED]
- AERIAL MANEUVER: MULTI-REGION UAV SATURATION (0025Z-0046Z, UA Air Force/Vanek, HIGH): Ongoing drone activity: 2 units targeting Dnipro, 3 units targeting Kharkiv suburbs, a group transiting Sumy toward Chernihiv, and at least 1 unit entering Kyiv city from the east.
- KINETIC IMPACT: EXPLOSIONS IN SUMY/DNIPRO/KHARKIV (0033Z, RBC-UA, HIGH): Simultaneous explosions reported across regional centers, likely a mix of ballistic impacts and AD interceptions.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has transitioned from the high-velocity "Zircon wave" (see previous sitrep) into a sustained, multi-domain saturation phase. The RU strategy appears to be a "high-low" mix: using hypersonic assets to fix/deplete high-end AD (Patriot/SAMP-T) followed by UAV swarms and now potential Kalibr cruise missile volleys.
- Northeastern Sector (Sumy/Chernihiv): Konotop has been struck, likely by ballistic or high-speed cruise missiles, while UAV groups utilize this corridor to penetrate toward Chernihiv and Kyiv.
- Eastern Sector (Donbas/Kharkiv): The conflict is intensifying at the tactical level. RU is attempting to capitalize on the strategic bombardment by launching ground assaults toward Svyatogorsk. This suggests a push to secure heights overlooking the Siverskyi Donets river.
- Southern/Maritime Sector: The movement of Kalibr carriers into the Black Sea suggests RU is preparing to exploit the southern AD axis, which has been relatively quiet during the initial Kyiv-centric Zircon wave.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
- Capabilities & Intentions: RU is demonstrating sophisticated synchronization. The deployment of naval assets (Kalibr) immediately following the hypersonic strike on Kyiv is a classic "exhaustion" tactic designed to catch AD units during reload or repositioning phases.
- Ground Force Course of Action: The reported advance on Svyatogorsk (Yarova-Drobyshevo sector) indicates an attempt to broaden the front and force UAF to commit reserves away from the Pokrovsk/Zaporizhzhia axes mentioned in the daily report.
- Logistics: The rapid succession of Zircon, Kh-22, and now potential Kalibr launches confirms the "reload phase" identified in SAR data (Daily Report) is complete. RU is in a high-intensity expenditure phase.
3. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
- AD Posture: UAF Air Force is actively tracking and engaging multiple UAV groups across four oblasts simultaneously. GPS/HF degradation from the X-class solar flare (Daily Report) remains a significant friction point for mobile fire groups (MFGs).
- Ground Defense: Units in the Svyatogorsk sector are likely under heavy pressure; however, RU claims of an offensive have not yet been corroborated by Ukrainian General Staff (GSCU) or frontline reporting.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
- RU Propaganda: RU channels (NgP Razvedka, 0042Z) are amplifying strike reports to maximize psychological impact, mocking Ukrainian requests for air defense.
- Narrative Shaping: RU state media (TASS) is pre-emptively announcing ground gains in the Svyatogorsk area to create a sense of inevitable collapse ahead of the Abu Dhabi negotiations.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
- Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): A massed Kalibr/UAV "pincer" strike within the next 2-4 hours. UAVs from the north (Sumy) and south (Kherson) will attempt to fix AD, while Kalibrs target energy infrastructure in central/western Ukraine.
- Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated "Dark Start" operation. If Kalibrs successfully strike substations in Kyiv or Khmelnytskyi during the -27°C temperature minimum, the resulting localized grid collapse could become irreversible without immediate external stabilization.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Corroborate RU ground movements in the Yarova-Drobyshevo/Svyatogorsk sector. Verify if this is a reconnaissance-in-force or a sustained offensive.
- [HIGH] Identify the specific number and class of Kalibr carriers currently in the Black Sea launch boxes.
- [MEDIUM] Assess the impact of GPS interference on the interception rate of the current UAV wave in the Dnipro/Kharkiv sectors.
//REPORT ENDS//
