MILITARY PULSE
Global conflict analysis • situation stable
Updated 12 Sept • Verified 1h ago
SITUATION STABLEHIGH PRIORITYCONF ●●● (HIGH)Unchanged since 12 Sept
Saudi Arabia shut its critical East-West oil pipeline after drone attacks from Iraq damaged pump stations, compounding Houthi control of Bab al-Mandeb via Perim Island and Mokha seizures that threaten Red Sea exports. US-Iran tit-for-tat continues with Iranian missiles damaging US aircraft (A-10 and F-15s) at Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti base amid tanker strikes, keeping oil above $100/barrel. Ukraine-Russia fighting maintains high intensity with Russian mass drone/missile barrages and Donbas pressure alongside Ukrainian deep strikes.
📍 Bab al-Mandeb Strait📍 Perim (Mayyun) Island📍 Mokha/Yemen📍 Saudi East-West Pipeline (Riyadh/Medina)📍 Muwaffaq Salti Air Base/Jordan📍 Donbas/Ukraine📍 Strait of Hormuz
Full AnalysisNext check in 4h
Houthi forces completed seizure of Mokha port, Dhubab, and Perim (Mayyun) Island plus other Red Sea islets, asserting full western Yemeni coastal control over Bab al-Mandeb. Saudi airstrikes hit Mokha airport in response; Riyadh requested US direct military aid against Houthis, which was declined in favor of intelligence support. Concurrently, drones originating from Iraq struck East-West pipeline pump stations in Riyadh and Medina regions on 10 September, causing fires, injuries, and a precautionary full shutdown of the 4-5 mb/d artery used to bypass Hormuz. Iraq dismissed a local commander and closed a border crossing; Saudis deferred retaliation pending Iraqi action. In parallel, Iranian ballistic missiles damaged one A-10 (wing loss) and approximately eight F-15s at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan during retaliatory exchanges after US destruction of Iranian tankers. Russian forces launched large drone and missile waves (including 161+ overnight) hitting Ukrainian civilian and energy sites such as gas stations and malls, while sustaining ground pressure in Donbas; Ukrainian forces conducted deep strikes on Russian infrastructure and logistics.
These developments tighten dual chokepoints on global oil flows (Hormuz residual disruptions plus Red Sea/Bab al-Mandeb and now the East-West line), elevating energy security risks and spillover potential into broader Gulf and Levant theaters via Iranian-aligned proxies. US force posture in Jordan and the Gulf faces sustained attrition of aircraft and interceptors. Ukrainian theater remains attritional without decisive shifts, though Russian deployments like Oreshnik systems in Belarus raise European contingency concerns. Regional spillover includes heightened Saudi-Iraqi tensions and possible Houthi further maritime interdiction.
Likely next steps include Saudi assessment of pipeline repairs and potential limited retaliation or coalition air ops if Houthi advances continue; US calibration of tanker/base responses while managing interceptor stocks. Intelligence gaps persist on exact drone operators in Iraq, full pipeline damage extent/duration of outage, and precise Iranian direction to Houthis.