SUBJECT: DAILY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY – 2025-12-27 DTG: 2025-12-27T15:00Z

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(STRATEGIC SHIFT) TARGETING PIVOT & TACTICAL REVERSALS: The operational environment has intensified significantly with the Russian Federation (RF) expanding its strategic air campaign from electrical distribution to Naftogaz gas production and heating infrastructure, aiming to induce a systemic heating collapse during severe winter conditions. On the ground, the situation in the Siversk sector has deteriorated to a crisis point involving the relief of two brigade commanders, while conflicting reports in Kupyansk suggest a potential reversal of previous Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) gains. Concurrently, UAF has launched a sustained saturation drone attack on Moscow, successfully penetrating the capital's air defense (AD) bubble.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Targeting Vector (Energy): Shift from purely electrical substations to Gas/Heating Infrastructure. Previous reports anticipated a "mass missile strike" on the grid; current data confirms the target set has broadened to Naftogaz facilities (1439Z) to cripple heating capabilities.
• Northern Front (Kupyansk): MAJOR ASSESSMENT CHANGE. Previous report assessed UAF success at the Oskil River. Current intelligence (1005Z) indicates a highly volatile situation with RF sources claiming full capture of Kupyansk and UAF acknowledging "clashes," suggesting a possible loss of the urban center or a forced retrograde.
• Eastern Front (Siversk): NEW CRITICAL GAP. New reports (1336Z) confirm the removal of UAF 54th and 10th Brigade commanders, indicating a severe command and control (C2) failure and potential defensive collapse in the Siversk salient not previously identified.
• Southern Front (Zaporizhzhia): While Huliaipole's loss was previously noted, the situation has worsened with the confirmed Killed in Action (KIA) of volunteer commander Denys "White Rex" Nikitin (1436Z), leading to potential morale and cohesion issues among volunteer detachments.
• Deep Strike Capability: UAF drone operations against Moscow have escalated from "harassment" to a Saturation Attack (14+ confirmed UAVs, 1500Z), forcing significant civil aviation closures ("Carpet" plan).

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

(SAR Score Legend: 0-5 Low/Routine | 5-15 Moderate/Monitor | 15+ High/Critical)

• Logistical Surge (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL):
  • SAR Analysis: 2652nd Artillery Armament and Ammunition Base displays a massive spike to Score 27.96 (RISING). 183rd Guards Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment shows Score 32.71 (RISING).
  • Assessment: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The surge at the 2652nd indicates a second echelon of munitions is being prepared for immediate dispatch, likely to sustain the intensity of the Vostok Group's offensive. The activity at the 183rd suggests a major repositioning of RF AD assets, possibly to plug gaps created by recent UAF strikes or to reinforce the Moscow ring.
• Siversk Salient Collapse (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH):
  • Indicator: Relief of 54th/10th Brigade commanders + RF claims of seizing high ground.
  • Assessment: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The removal of senior field commanders during active combat typically indicates a loss of defensive integrity. There is a high risk of RF forces cutting the T0513 Ground Line of Communication (GLOC).
• "Sensor Denial" in Pokrovsk (THREAT LEVEL: MEDIUM):
  • Indicator: Destruction of 15th National Guard Bde UAV control points near Rodinske (1500Z).
  • Assessment: (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF is systematically targeting UAF drone operators ("sensor-to-shooter" nodes) to facilitate mechanized movement near Hryshyne.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Kyiv & Infrastructure:
  • Status: Mixed. Water restored (1449Z), but 500,000 remain without power. Metro running on modified schedules.
  • New Tactics: RF utilizing ultra-low altitude flight paths for "Geran-2" (Shahed) drones to evade radar horizons.
• Eastern Axis:
  • Kupyansk: Conflicting reporting. RF claims control; UAF reports defensive engagements. Likely gray zone fighting within city limits.
  • Siversk: Command turnover indicates tactical crisis.
  • Pokrovsk: RF forces advancing near Hryshyne; active "blinding" of UAF aerial reconnaissance assets.
• Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
  • Huliaipole: RF forces (Vostok Group) transitioning to "quiet" infiltration tactics and utilizing Tornado-S precision MLRS (1336Z) to disrupt UAF counter-attacks.
  • Losses: "White Rex" KIA complicates command of RDK/Volunteer elements.
• Russian Rear:
  • Moscow: 14+ UAF UAVs intercepted. Sheremetyevo/Vnukovo airports faced temporary closures.
  • Diplomatic: RF utilizing EW specialists in Central African Republic (CAR), signaling continued expeditionary capabilities despite domestic strain.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• P1 (Territorial Control): Kupyansk Status. Definitive visual confirmation of the Forward Edge of the Battle Area (FEBA) in Kupyansk is required. Are RF forces physically occupying the city center, or is this an Information Operation (IO) push?
• P2 (Damage Assessment): Naftogaz Facilities. Specific BDA on gas production nodes. Is the damage structural (long-term repair) or related to distribution/pumping stations (short-term)?
• P3 (Command Integrity): Siversk Sector. Identity of new acting commanders for 54th and 10th Brigades and status of the defensive line stability.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MLCOA (Exploitation of Siversk): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Capitalizing on the command turmoil in the 54th/10th Brigades, RF forces will launch a concentrated mechanized push NLT 2025-12-28 0400Z to sever the Siversk GLOCs before new leadership can stabilize the defense.
• MDCOA (Systemic Heating Collapse): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF continues the "Naftogaz" targeting vector tonight. A successful strike on gas storage/pumping pressure hubs, combined with the current power deficit and sub-zero temperatures, triggers a cascading failure of district heating systems in Kyiv and Kharkiv, necessitating mass civilian evacuations.
• Secondary Prediction (Moscow AD): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) The high SAR activity at the 183rd Guards AA Regiment likely precedes a visible redeployment of S-300/400 systems to the Moscow Oblast to counter the UAF saturation tactics observed today.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Siversk Command Support: IMMEDIATE DEPLOYMENT. Deploy a General Staff "Crisis Management Group" to the Siversk sector HQ to assist interim brigade commanders in re-establishing defensive cohesion and preventing rout.
2. Infrastructure Defense: AIR DEFENSE REALIGNMENT. Prioritize point-defense assets (Gepard/Skynex) to key Naftogaz gas pumping stations immediately. The shift from electric to gas targeting requires a corresponding shift in AD umbrella coverage.
3. Information Operations (Counter-Narrative): PROOF OF LIFE. If Kupyansk remains contested, release geolocated footage of UAF presence in the city center NLT 2025-12-27 2000Z to counter the RF "total capture" narrative dominating the information space.
4. Volunteer Unit Stabilization: LIAISON OFFICER ASSIGNMENT. Assign a senior UAF liaison to the volunteer units (RDK/Foreign Legion) in Zaporizhzhia to maintain chain-of-command integration following the death of Nikitin.

//END OF REPORT//