SUBJECT: DAILY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY – 2025-12-01 15:01:27Z

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(CRITICAL) GLOC SEVERANCE AND DIPLOMATIC BIFURCATION: The operational situation in Pokrovsk has deteriorated to "Terminal Phase." RF forces and proxy units (Sparta/DNR) claim a physical blockade of the western supply routes (Phase Line W-1), effectively severing the primary Ground Line of Communication (GLOC). This kinetic peak is synchronized with a high-stakes diplomatic divergence: while UAF solidified a "United Front" via the scheduling of the Ireland summit (Zelenskyy/Witkoff), RF is exploiting a simultaneous "Moscow Mediation" track (Putin/Whitkoff) to frame the Pokrovsk encirclement as a fait accompli for negotiation leverage. The introduction of Jet-Powered Shahed UAVs by RF and R-60 Air-to-Air Missile intercepts by UAF marks a significant technological escalation in the air domain.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Donetsk Front (CRITICAL DEGRADATION): Changed from "Urban Infiltration" to "GLOC Blockade/Severance." RF forces have captured Klinove and claim effective fire control over the final western access roads to Pokrovsk.
• Diplomatic/IO (STABILIZED BUT BIFURCATED): The "Umerov Crisis" (internal paralysis) has evolved into a "Dual Track" diplomatic contest. The unified European/US support (Ireland Meeting, Netherlands €250M pledge) is actively competing against RF-hosted talks in Moscow intended to freeze the front lines.
• Aerial Threats (ESCALATED): Introduction of Jet-Powered Shahed variants by RF increases the interception difficulty and Air Defense (AD) drain. Conversely, UAF validated a new Tactic, Technique, and Procedure (TTP) utilizing R-60 Air-to-Air Missiles (platform unconfirmed) for counter-UAS duties.
• Kinetic Reach (EXPANDED): RF Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) range has extended to engage targets in Eastern Dnipropetrovsk, expanding the shaping zone beyond the immediate front.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• Pokrovsk Encirclement (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL): With the claimed blockade of Phase Line W-1 and the capture of Klinove, the SKELIA Regiment faces immediate envelopment. The window for organized withdrawal is closing rapidly (next 4-6 hours). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Southern Axis Breakthrough (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH): The risk of a secondary main effort at Stepnohorsk (Zaporizhzhia) has increased. RF is capitalizing on the AD drain caused by deep strikes (Dnipro/Sumy) and the fixation of reserves in Donetsk. The 2652th Artillery Base shows sustained activity (SAR Score 13.84 - STABLE*), supporting this buildup.
  • Legend: SAR Score 0-5 (Low), 5-10 (Moderate), 10-25 (High), 25+ (Critical).
• Air Defense Exhaustion (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH): The combined use of Jet-Shaheds and KABs against rear cities (Dnipro: 40 casualties) is successfully forcing UAF to dilute frontline SHORAD (Short Range Air Defense) to protect population centers, creating vulnerability for the MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action) in the South.
• Cognitive/Diplomatic Traps (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH): RF is leveraging the Putin/Whitkoff meeting in Moscow to frame any UAF counter-attack as "sabotaging peace," aiming to freeze National Command Authority (NCA) decision-making.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Pokrovsk Blockade: RF proxy units (Sparta) claim interdiction of the M-30/H-20 GLOC. SKELIA Regiment is conducting decentralized urban defense (Close Quarters Combat) but faces isolation.
• Klinove Capture: RF forces secured Klinove, protecting the northern flank of their Pokrovsk breakthrough.
• Technological Counter-Measures:
  • UAF: Successful interception of a Shahed using an R-60 missile (likely improvised launch platform).
  • RF: Deployment of jet-powered Shaheds for deep-strike saturation.
• Deep Strike Exchange: RF struck residential infrastructure in Dnipro and Kramatorsk. UAF GUR units executed sabotage operations in occupied Berdyansk.
• Strategic Support: The Netherlands committed €250M for US weapons procurement, providing a tangible counter-narrative to claims of Western abandonment.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• PRIORITY 1 (KINETIC): Blockade Verification. Urgent confirmation of the density and specific unit composition of the RF force claiming the blockade on Phase Line W-1. Are they dug in, or is this a porous fire-control zone?
• PRIORITY 2 (TECHINT): R-60 Launch Platform. Identify the platform used for the R-60 AAM intercept. If this is a ground-based adaptation (FrankenSAM variant), can it be mass-deployed to Stepnohorsk immediately?
• PRIORITY 3 (STRATEGIC C2): Reserve Deployment Orders. Did the NCA issue the deployment order for the 82nd/47th Brigades to Phase Line W-1 by the 1130Z deadline? Current status of these reserves is unknown.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MLCOA (Ultimatum Diplomacy): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will complete the consolidation of the Pokrovsk blockade NLT 2025-12-01 2000Z. They will then leverage the Moscow meeting (NLT 2025-12-02 1200Z) to present a "surrender or annihilation" ultimatum to the isolated UAF garrison, using this to pressure the US delegation into forcing a ceasefire on current lines.
• MDCOA (Southern Exploitation): (HIGH-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) Observing the UAF reserve fixation on the crumbling Pokrovsk GLOC, RF launches a mechanized assault on Stepnohorsk NLT 2025-12-02 0200Z. This assault will be preceded by heavy KAB/Aviation strikes, exploiting the gaps left by UAF AD assets redeployed to defend Dnipro.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Kinetic Response (IMMEDIATE - J3): EXECUTE ANTI-BLOCKADE FIRES. Abandon the R-1 Interdiction plan (window closed). Shift all available HIMARS/Long-Range fires to destroy the specific RF blocking units on Phase Line W-1. Objective is not to hold the city, but to punch a temporary corridor for SKELIA Regiment extraction NLT 2025-12-01 1800Z.
2. Strategic Deployment (URGENT - J3): REINFORCE SOUTHERN FLANK. Regardless of the Donetsk situation, deploy the 5th Assault Brigade (5 OShB) with their proven UGV counter-mobility TTPs and available "Sting" interceptor teams to Stepnohorsk NLT 2025-12-01 1600Z. Do not strip this sector to reinforce the lost Pokrovsk GLOC.
3. Strategic Communications (IMMEDIATE - NCA): PROTOCOL "SOVEREIGNTY". Address the Moscow (Putin/Whitkoff) meeting publicly NLT 2025-12-01 1700Z. Frame it as "RF soliciting terms," while emphasizing the Ireland Summit (Zelenskyy/Witkoff) as the only legitimate negotiation track. explicitly cite the Netherlands €250M pledge and Berdyansk strikes to prove operational continuity.
4. Tech Adaptation (URGENT - J4/Tech): SCALE R-60 TTP. If the R-60 intercept capability is mobile, prioritize its deployment to the Dnipro defensive ring to free up conventional AD assets for the front lines.

//END OF REPORT//