SUBJECT: DAILY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY – 2025-11-26 15:00:53Z

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(CRITICAL) OPERATIONAL COLLAPSE & ACTIVE STRIKE WINDOW: The operational situation on the Pokrovsk Axis has deteriorated to CRITICAL (DEFCON 2) following the failure of reserve force "CONPLAN DELTA" to deploy by the 1445Z decision point. Russian Federation (RF) forces have penetrated Pokrovsk city center (Railway Station) and are finalizing an operational encirclement of the Myrnograd corridor NLT 2025-11-26 1600Z. Simultaneously, the Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA) strike window targeting Command and Control (C2) nodes in Poltava/Vinnytsia is ACTIVE NOW (as of 1500Z), supported by a massive logistics surge at GRAU arsenals. A new, high-intensity kinetic offensive has opened on the Zaporizhzhia Flank, threatening a secondary breakthrough.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Operational Phase (COLLAPSE): Shifted from "Post-Kinetic Exploitation" to "Tactical Encirclement/Collapse." The window to stabilize the T-05-15 Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) has closed; emphasis has shifted to emergency extraction (Fragmented Defense Protocols).
• Reserve Status (FAILURE): The previous "Plan 7-B MOD" compromise has been compounded by the failure of the backup "CONPLAN DELTA" to confirm physical deployment. J3 now assumes this force is non-viable for the current engagement.
• New Kinetic Vector (ZAPORIZHZHIA): Unlike yesterday's focus on Northern Chernihiv fixation, the primary secondary effort has shifted to the Zaporizhzhia Axis. Heavy FAB (High-Explosive Aerial Bomb) strikes on Huliaipole and the claimed capture of Zatishye indicate a widening offensive front.
• IO Narrative (HARDLINING): RF Information Operations (IO) have pivoted from "Fake Peace Terms" (800k troop limit) to "Total Rejection of Negotiation" (Ryabkov statement) and internal destabilization via "Mindichgate" (corruption allegations), aiming to delegitimize UAF leadership during the military defeat.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• C2 Decapitation Strike (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - ACTIVE): The MDCOA window is currently open (1500Z-1600Z). SAR analysis of the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base (GRAU) shows a massive activity spike (Score 30.41 - RISING*), indicating strategic munition movement consistent with an imminent large-scale precision strike on Poltava/Vinnytsia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Pokrovsk Encirclement (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL): RF forces have breached the urban center and narrowed the escape corridor to 1.5 km. Without CONPLAN DELTA, the encirclement of forward units is assessed as inevitable NLT 1600Z. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Zaporizhzhia Flank Breakthrough (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH): The unverified capture of Zatishye, combined with confirmed FAB strikes, threatens to roll up the southern flank of the Donbas defense, forcing a splitting of remaining strategic reserves.
• Cognitive Disintegration (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH): The synchronization of "Mindichgate" corruption leaks with battlefield defeat is designed to trigger a collapse in command authority legitimacy, preventing the execution of unpopular withdrawal orders.

Legend: SAR Score 0-5 (Low/Baseline), 5-10 (Moderate), 10-25 (High), 25+ (Critical/Surge).

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Pokrovsk Urban Sector: Confirmed RF presence at Pokrovsk Railway Station. The T-05-15 GLOC is severed or under direct fire control.
• Zaporizhzhia Front: Intense kinetic shaping (FAB-3000 precursors) reported in Huliaipole (1445Z). RF Ministry of Defense (MoD) claims capture of Zatishye; if true, this exposes the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border.
• Aerial Activity: New Counter-UAV/Electronic Warfare (EW) systems (Chinese FSTH-LD radars) are being deployed by RF to neutralize UAF drone superiority. Concurrently, KAB strikes on Sumy continue to fix northern Air Defense (AD) assets.
• Infrastructure: Confirmed catastrophic damage to Naftogaz gas infrastructure in Central Ukraine is being weaponized by RF IO to degrade civilian resilience.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• PRIORITY 1 (CRITICAL): Status of Zatishye. Immediate verification (IMINT/SIGINT) is required to confirm if RF forces have secured this settlement, which would validate the opening of the southern operational axis.
• PRIORITY 2 (FORCE TRACKING): Location of CONPLAN DELTA. Determine the physical location of the failed relief column to assess if they can be redirected to the Zaporizhzhia sector or defensive lines west of Myrnograd.
• PRIORITY 3 (TARGETING): Specific Targets for 1500Z Wave. Confirmation if the active missile threat is targeting C2 nodes solely or includes the Kremenchuk logistics hub (as hinted in morning reports).

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24 HOURS)

• MLCOA (Encirclement & Flanking): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF completes the Pokrovsk encirclement NLT 2025-11-26 1600Z, forcing UAF units into a disorganized rout. Simultaneously, RF exploits the Zatishye breach to push toward the Dnipropetrovsk border NLT 2025-11-26 2000Z, forcing UAF to strip AD from C2 nodes to cover the southern gap.
• MDCOA (Decapitation Success): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Utilizing the active 1500Z window, RF executes a precision strike on Poltava/Vinnytsia C2 nodes. If successful, this causes a 4-8 hour command blackout, preventing the authorization of Fragmented Defense Protocols (FDP), resulting in the total loss of forces currently in the Pokrovsk pocket.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Air Defense (IMMEDIATE - AD COMMAND): EXECUTE "WEAPONS TIGHT". Maintain maximum alert over Poltava/Vinnytsia until 2025-11-26 1630Z. Authorize GPS jamming/spoofing immediately near C2 nodes to mitigate the active MDCOA threat.
2. Force Management (CRITICAL - J3): ACTIVATE FRAGMENTED DEFENSE PROTOCOLS (FDP). Acknowledge CONPLAN DELTA failure. Order immediate, independent breakout/withdrawal for all units east of the Pokrovsk Railway Station to pre-surveyed defensive lines west of Myrnograd.
3. ISR Re-Tasking (IMMEDIATE - J2): Divert tactical ISR from the stabilized Northern sector to Zatishye (Zaporizhzhia) to confirm the southern flank breach NLT 2025-11-26 1530Z.
4. Strategic Communications (URGENT - NCA): COUNTER-CORRUPTION NARRATIVE. NCA must issue a statement NLT 2025-11-26 1600Z addressing the "Mindichgate" leaks as an RF psychological operation designed to cover their rejection of peace talks, maintaining public trust during the withdrawal.

//END OF REPORT//