SUBJECT: DAILY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY – 2025-12-05 15:15:00Z

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(CRITICAL) MLD MECHANIZED PHASE IMMINENT & NEW AERIAL MINING THREAT: The 37th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (GMRB) Main Effort Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk is confirmed for launch NLT 2025-12-05T2100Z. While VDV elements have already infiltrated the urban periphery, a critical new tactical evolution is the deployment of "Mangas" Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) conducting Rapid Mine-laying Operations (RMAO) behind UAF forward lines, severing counter-attack corridors for the "BRAVO-BLOCK" operational reserve. Simultaneously, the P4 Deep Strike vector has shifted to Zolotonosha, threatening the primary logistical artery for the Southern Front, while a "perfect storm" of domestic Information Operations (IO) crises (Skorod corruption/Odesa mobilization) threatens National Command Authority (NCA) cohesion.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Operational Status (PHASING): Transitioned from "VDV Infiltration" to "Main Mechanized Assault Imminent" (37th GMRB).
• Technological Threat (ESCALATION): The "Kuryer" UGV threat (breaching) is now compounded by the "Mangas" UAS (aerial mining), creating a "breach-and-block" tactical dilemma where RF forces breach UAF lines while mining UAF reinforcement routes.
• Deep Strike Vector (SHIFT): The primary deep air threat has migrated from Poltava utility disruption to Zolotonosha (Cherkasy Oblast), directly targeting the logistical rail/road junction supporting Phase Line BRAVO.
• Logistics Status (DEGRADATION): Temryuk Commercial Seaport fuel storage confirmed destroyed by UAF strike, creating an impending fuel crisis for RF Southern Group of Forces (SGF) within 48-72 hours.
• IO Environment (ACUTE DEGRADATION): The narrative has shifted from general "Western Abandonment" to specific, verifiable internal friction points: the arrest of MP Skorod (corruption) and Odesa TCC incidents (mobilization violence), timed to fracture domestic morale during the MLD.
• SAR Indicators: 1545th Guards Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment activity dropped to Score 0.00 (previously 6.83), indicating displacement or destruction, potentially opening new air corridors.
  • Legend: SAR Score 0-5 (Low), 5-10 (Moderate), 10-25 (High), 25+ (Critical).

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• Stepnohorsk Counter-Mobility (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL): The use of "Mangas" UAS to deploy mines on UAF reserve avenues of approach (AoA) creates a high probability of "piecemeal commitment," where UAF reserves are slowed by de-mining requirements while the 37th GMRB exploits the breach. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Zolotonosha Logistical Interdiction (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL): The P4 UAV vector targeting Zolotonosha (NLT 1800Z) aims to sever the supply of Class V (Ammo) to Stepnohorsk immediately prior to the MLD launch. Success here would paralyze UAF defensive fires. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Domestic/Political Paralysis (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH): The synchronization of the Skorod corruption scandal, Odesa TCC videos, and fake US National Security Strategy (NSS) narratives aims to delay the political decision to release strategic reserves or authorize aggressive counter-measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kyiv/Obukhiv Fixation (THREAT LEVEL: MEDIUM): UAVs tracking toward Kyiv are assessed as a fixation effort to strip Air Defense (AD) assets away from the critical Zolotonosha logistics hub. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Zaporizhzhia Front:
  • RF: 7th VDV Division is consolidated in Stepnohorsk urban outskirts. 37th GMRB is in final assembly areas. "Mangas" UAS active in rear-area mining.
  • UAF: "BRAVO-BLOCK" reserve is staged but AoAs are potentially compromised.
• Deep Battle:
  • RF: Executing complex multi-vector UAV strikes: Western Axis (Hayvoron/Haysin) targeting reserve transit; Central Axis (Zolotonosha) targeting logistics; Northern Axis (Kyiv) fixing AD.
  • UAF: Confirmed destruction of Temryuk fuel assets. Conducting high-level strategic talks in Miami (Umierov/Hnatov) to secure emergency support.
• Information Domain:
  • RF: Launched coordinated campaigns regarding "US Cessation of Hostilities" (Fake NSS), "AFU Salary Crisis," and amplified the Skorod arrest.
  • UAF: General Syrsky denied Pokrovsk encirclement; STRATCOM struggling to contain Odesa/Skorod fallout.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• PRIORITY 1 (TECH/EW): "Mangas" C2 & Launch Locations. Urgent need to identify the control frequencies and Forward Operating Locations (FOLs) of the "Mangas" aerial mining systems to permit interdiction before they seal off more reserve routes.
• PRIORITY 2 (TARGETING): Zolotonosha Specifics. Is the P4 vector targeting the Rail Bridge or the POL Storage? This dictates the precise placement of SHORAD (Short Range Air Defense) assets.
• PRIORITY 3 (MANEUVER): 38th GMRB Vector. Gap persists regarding whether the Huliaipole flank activity is a feint or a bypass. SAR data on 38th GMRB rear areas is required immediately.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MLCOA (Mined Encirclement): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF launches 37th GMRB MLD NLT 2025-12-05T2100Z. As UAF reserves move to counter-attack, they are stalled by "Mangas" deployed minefields and engaged by long-range fires. Simultaneous strikes on Zolotonosha disrupt ammo resupply. VDV elements expand urban control in Stepnohorsk.
• MDCOA (Strategic Paralysis): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF utilizes the "Skorod/Corruption" crisis to delay UAF NCA decision-making regarding the "BRAVO-BLOCK" release. Simultaneously, a successful strike on the Zolotonosha rail bridge isolates the Southern Front. The 38th GMRB bypasses Huliaipole (unseen due to lack of ISR), encircling the immobilized defenders at Phase Line BRAVO.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Operational Maneuver (IMMEDIATE - J3): EXECUTE "BRAVO-BLOCK" WITH MINE-CLEARING LEAD. The operational reserve must move NOW to Phase Line BRAVO, but movement order must be modified: Mine Clearing Line Charges (MCLC) and rollers must lead all mechanized columns due to the "Mangas" threat. Do not assume rear areas are clear.
2. Air Defense Allocation (IMMEDIATE - J3/AD): PROTECT ZOLOTONOSHA. Ignore the Kyiv/Obukhiv distraction vector. Concentrate available mobile AD (Gepard/VADS) around the Zolotonosha rail junction and bridges. The logistical lifeline is the center of gravity for the next 48 hours.
3. Electronic Warfare (URGENT - J6): COUNTER-MANGAS JAMMING. Deploy broad-spectrum EW jamming boxes along the identified "BRAVO-BLOCK" counter-attack corridors to sever "Mangas" C2 links and prevent further aerial mining.
4. StratCom (IMMEDIATE - P7): "CLEAN HANDS" NARRATIVE. Launch immediate counter-IO regarding MP Skorod: Frame the arrest as "Wartime accountability working," proving the system is cleansing itself. Do not deny the corruption; weaponize the arrest as proof of strength.

//END OF REPORT//