SUBJECT: DAILY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY – 2025-12-02 15:01:13Z

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(CRITICAL) STEPNOHORSK ASSAULT INITIATION AND MOG COMPROMISE: The operational focus has shifted decisively from the lost Donetsk sector to the Zaporizhzhia Axis. RF Vostok Group (specifically 37th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade) has initiated the preparatory phase of the Main Effort Land Drive (MLD) on Stepnohorsk, supported by the likely capture of the flanking position at Zelyony Gai. A critical new technological threat, the "Gerbera" guided loitering munition, has successfully suppressed Ukrainian Mobile Fire Groups (MOGs), stripping the tactical Air Defense (AD) screen. This kinetic escalation is synchronized with a strategic coercion campaign involving high-level talks in Moscow (Putin/Witkoff) and unverified reports of suspended US weapons aid.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Donetsk Front (STRATEGIC LOSS): Changed from "GLOC Blockade" to "Operational Objective Achieved" by RF. The fall of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) is now assessed as a fait accompli (High Confidence), shifting the RF Main Effort South.
• Zaporizhzhia Front (ESCALATION): Changed from "Threat Level High" to "Assault Execution Phase." RF activity has transitioned from staging to active preparatory fires and maneuver by the 37th Guards MRB.
• Technological Threat (NEW): Introduction of the "Gerbera" anti-MOG munition and "Kuryer" Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGV) represents a shift from "Jet-Shahed" deep strikes to tactical counter-mobility and AD suppression.
• Strategic Logistics (SURGE): Significant shift in rear-area support. SAR data indicates the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base has spiked to Score 29.50 (CRITICAL - RISING), confirming massive ammunition throughput likely destined for the Stepnohorsk offensive.
  • Legend: SAR Score 0-5 (Low), 5-10 (Moderate), 10-25 (High), 25+ (Critical).

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• Stepnohorsk Breakthrough (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL): The likely RF control of Zelyony Gai (15km east of Stepnohorsk) exposes the eastern flank of the defense. With MOGs suppressed by "Gerbera" munitions, the 5th Assault Brigade faces imminent mechanized assault without adequate SHORAD (Short Range Air Defense) cover. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• US Aid Suspension (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL): New reports (Bundeswehr source via The Atlantic) alleging a suspension of specific US weapons systems constitutes a catastrophic risk to operational planning and morale. This aligns with RF Information Operations (IO) aiming to fracture the "Dublin Track" diplomatic efforts. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• MOG Neutralization (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH): The validated success of "Gerbera" munitions against MOGs creates a systemic vulnerability. If MOGs cannot operate, UAF must either risk expensive interceptors (Patriot/NASAMS) near the front or cede air superiority to RF KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) platforms.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Zelyony Gai Flanking: Vostok Group units have likely secured Zelyony Gai, providing a staging ground for the 37th Guards MRB to strike the Stepnohorsk MLD.
• Tactical Tech Adaptation:
  • RF: Deployment of "Gerbera" (online-controlled loitering munition) specifically targeting UAF MOG vehicles.
  • RF: First observation of "Kuryer" UGVs equipped with anti-drone cages and mine trawls, indicating preparation for complex breach operations against minefields.
• Deep Strike Operations:
  • UAF: Escalated strikes against RF oil tankers and infrastructure in St. Petersburg (internet disruption).
  • RF: Sustained KAB strikes on Kharkiv to fix Northern reserves.
• Diplomatic Maneuver: UAF secured a follow-up meeting with US proxies (Witkoff/Kushner) in Europe for Dec 3rd to counter the optics of the Moscow meeting.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• PRIORITY 1 (TECHINT): "Gerbera" Capabilities. Urgent requirement to determine the frequency band and guidance linkage (satellite vs. cellular) of the "Gerbera" munition to develop immediate Electronic Warfare (EW) countermeasures.
• PRIORITY 2 (STRATEGIC): US Aid Suspension. Confirmation of the specific scope of the reported US aid suspension. Does it affect AD interceptors or artillery shells immediately?
• PRIORITY 3 (KINETIC): Zelyony Gai Disposition. Verification of the density of RF armor currently consolidating in Zelyony Gai. Are they digging in for a base of fire, or forming assault columns?

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MLCOA (Mechanized Breach & Ultimatum): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF Vostok Group will launch the main mechanized thrust on Stepnohorsk NLT 2025-12-02 1700Z, utilizing "Kuryer" UGVs to breach minefields under cover of KAB saturation. Successful penetration will be timed to coincide with a diplomatic ultimatum delivered via the Moscow channel NLT 2025-12-03 1200Z.
• MDCOA (Decapitation & Collapse): (HIGH-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF exploits the MOG vacuum to execute a precision strike on the 5th Assault Brigade C2 nodes using high-speed missiles, simultaneous with a leaked confirmation of US aid cuts. This causes command paralysis, allowing a deep RF operational breakthrough toward the Dnipro river line.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Defensive Doctrine (IMMEDIATE - J3/J6): ACTIVATE PROTOCOL "HARP-1". All Mobile Fire Groups (MOGs) must immediately adopt Hardening and Rapid Proxy-fire Protocols. Enforce strict Emission Control (EMCON), usage of physical camouflage/decoys, and cease static open-ground positioning to negate the "Gerbera" threat.
2. Kinetic Interdiction (URGENT - J3): TARGET ZELYONY GAI. Shift priority for remaining HIMARS/MLRS assets to strike identified assembly areas in Zelyony Gai and the Dobropillia salient NLT 2025-12-02 1630Z. Disruption of the 37th Guards MRB assembly is the only way to delay the assault given the AD gap.
3. Counter-Mobility (IMMEDIATE - J3): DEPLOY ANTI-UGV TEAMS. Task 5th Assault Brigade specialized teams to forward positions specifically to hunt and destroy "Kuryer" mine-clearing UGVs before they breach the outer defensive belt.
4. Strategic Communications (IMMEDIATE - NCA): COUNTER-COERCION NARRATIVE. Pre-empt the US aid rumor NLT 2025-12-02 1600Z. Acknowledge the "bureaucratic delays" while emphasizing the concrete €125M Irish aid package and the upcoming Dec 3rd meeting with US representatives in Kyiv to maintain domestic morale.

//END OF REPORT//