SUBJECT: DAILY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY – 2025-11-27 15:30:00Z

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(CRITICAL) IMMINENT SOUTHERN ASSAULT & ALLIANCE FRACTURE: The operational focus has shifted rapidly to the Zaporizhzhia Axis (Huliaipole), where Russian Federation (RF) forces have initiated final kinetic shaping (KAB saturation/TOS-2) for a major ground assault assessed to commence NLT 2025-11-27 2200Z. Concurrently, the Pokrovsk Axis situation has degraded to Operational Loss, with RF President Putin explicitly claiming total encirclement, weaponizing this tactical reality to issue maximalist diplomatic ultimatums. A critical fissure in the Western alliance has been exposed via leaks regarding a US-proposed peace plan, which RF Information Operations (IO) are aggressively exploiting to isolate Kyiv diplomatically.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Operational Phase (HULIAIPOLE): Escalated from "Threat of Breakthrough" to "Imminent Assault Execution." Confirmation of heavy Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes and TOS-2 (Thermobaric) deployment indicates the preparatory phase is complete.
• Pokrovsk Status (ENCIRCLEMENT): Shifted from "Narrow Escape Corridor" to "Presumed Total Encirclement (P1 GAP)." While UAF Intelligence requires final verification, RF leadership's public validation suggests the physical corridor is closed, necessitating a shift from relief to extraction/breakout.
• Diplomatic Landscape (FRACTURE): A significant negative shift from "Hardlining" to "Alliance Exploitation." The leak of a US peace plan without European consultation has provided RF a vector to drive a wedge between NATO allies, complicating UAF strategic sustainment.
• Deep Strike Capability (NEW): UAF has executed confirmed deep strikes on Grozny (Chechnya), expanding the asymmetric theater beyond the immediate border regions (Belgorod/Kursk).

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• Huliaipole Ground Assault (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - IMMINENT): RF forces are staging for a mechanized thrust utilizing TOS-2 systems to breach UAF defensive lines west of Huliaipole NLT 2200Z. The interdiction of the Konstiantynivka Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) by RF Spetsnaz prevents rapid reserve redistribution. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Alliance Cohesion Failure (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH - RISING): The Dempster-Shafer belief mass for "Disagreement on Peace Plan negotiation process" is active (0.0338). RF exploitation of the US-EU rift threatens to delay critical aid decisions or force premature concessions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• C2/Logistics Interdiction (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH): While the strategic missile threat persists, the immediate threat has shifted to tactical interdiction. UAVs targeting Sloviansk (C2 node) and Spetsnaz on the Konstiantynivka supply route are effectively fixing UAF operational reserves.
• Aerial Threat Evolution (SAR INDICATORS): SAR analysis of the 1488th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment shows a sharp activity spike (Score 13.88 - RISING*). This suggests RF is aggressively repositioning AD assets to counter UAF deep strikes (Grozny) or to cover the Huliaipole offensive concentration.

Legend: SAR Score 0-5 (Low/Baseline), 5-10 (Moderate), 10-25 (High), 25+ (Critical/Surge).

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Zaporizhzhia Axis: UAF Air Force confirms multiple KAB launches (14:49Z) targeting defensive works. RF 35th Army (Vostok Group) is utilizing UAVs for final targeting.
• Pokrovsk Sector: RF President Putin claimed "complete encirclement" (14:12Z). UAF Special Operations Forces (SSO) are conducting localized delaying actions near Hryshyne, but the main GLOC is assessed as severed.
• Northern Sector (Lyman/Sloviansk): UAF 63rd Brigade successfully countered RF "Molniya" drones. However, a new UAV threat vector from the North is tracking toward Sloviansk, threatening the logistics hub supporting the eastern defense.
• Internal Security: A major corruption investigation in Poltava (5 million UAH scheme) was successfully prosecuted, though RF IO is attempting to spin this ("Mindichgate") as systemic state failure.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• PRIORITY 1 (CRITICAL): TOS-2 Positioning. IMINT confirmation of Thermobaric weapon system deployment locations west of Huliaipole is required immediately to direct counter-battery fire.
• PRIORITY 2 (FORCE STATUS): Pokrovsk Pocket Viability. Confirmation of life/combat effectiveness of units within the claimed Pokrovsk pocket to determine if Fragmented Defense Protocols (FDP) are still an option or if the force is effectively neutralized.
• PRIORITY 3 (STRATEGIC): European Political Reaction. Assessment of German/French leadership private reactions to the US peace plan leak to inform urgent diplomatic repair efforts.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24 HOURS)

• MLCOA (Southern Breakthrough & Diplomatic Pressure): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF executes the Huliaipole assault NLT 2025-11-27 2200Z, achieving a tactical breach of 5-10km. Simultaneously, RF releases visual evidence of POWs/equipment from Pokrovsk (NLT 280600Z) to demoralize UAF forces and reinforce the narrative that "resistance is futile" amidst Western disarray.
• MDCOA (Operational Collapse & Isolation): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) The successful Huliaipole breach links up with the southern exploitation of the Pokrovsk collapse, rolling up the UAF Southern Donbas defensive line. Concurrently, public recriminations between EU and US leaders regarding the peace plan lead to a temporary freeze in logistical aid flow, paralyzing UAF reserve generation.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Fire Support (IMMEDIATE - J3/FIRE COMMAND): EXECUTE COUNTER-PREPARATION. All available long-range artillery and precision assets must target suspected RF assembly areas and TOS-2 systems west of Huliaipole NLT 2025-11-27 1800Z to disrupt the assault timetable.
2. Force Management (CRITICAL - NCA/J3): AUTHORIZE FDP (POKROVSK). Proceed with the assumption that Pokrovsk is encircled. Authorize Fragmented Defense Protocols (FDP) immediately, granting unit commanders authority to execute independent breakout operations toward Myrnograd without waiting for central relief.
3. Diplomatic Repair (URGENT - MFA/NCA): Leverage PM Shmyhal’s NATO visit (14:41Z) to issue a joint statement with European partners reaffirming unity. Explicitly reject "unilateral peace proposals" to neutralize the RF IO exploitation of the US leak.
4. Rear Area Security (J3): Deploy Quick Reaction Forces (QRF) and thermal-equipped counter-sniper teams to the Konstiantynivka GLOC to hunt RF Spetsnaz interdiction teams fixing UAF reserves.

//END OF REPORT//