SUBJECT: DAILY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY – 2025-11-24 15:30:00Z

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) IMMINENT STRATEGIC STRIKE: The conflict window has entered a terminal phase regarding the anticipated ballistic missile strike, now confirmed for No Later Than (NLT) 240000Z. Precursor drone waves (Shahed/Geran) are currently probing Northern and Central sectors to deplete Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) interceptors ahead of the main salvo. Simultaneously, the relief force "Plan 7-B MOD" has gone communications-dark during transit to Rodynske, creating a critical vulnerability on the Pokrovsk Axis as Russian Federation (RF) forces transition from maneuver to kinetic interdiction using Glide Bombs (KABs) in Zaporizhzhia to fix potential reinforcements.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Southern Axis Tactics (ESCALATION): RF operations in Zaporizhzhia have shifted from flanking maneuvers (west of Stepnohirsk) to active kinetic fixation. Confirmed KAB launches (241451Z, 241453Z) indicate a move to physically destroy infrastructure and pin UAF reserves, rather than just bypass them.
• IO Narrative (EVOLUTION): The Information Operation (IO) has evolved from seeding a "fake Geneva plan" to high-ranking RF officials formally endorsing a modified "19-point framework." This pivots the threat from confusion to diplomatic entrapment, aiming to portray Kyiv as the intransigent party to delay Western support during the strike window.
• SAR Indicators (NEW): Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) analysis highlights rising activity at AB Monchegorsk (Score 8.37 - RISING), a known strategic bomber base, and the 531st Guards Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment (Score 14.39 - RISING), corroborating the timeline for a major coordinated aerial offensive.
• Reserve Status (CRITICAL GAP): The status of "Plan 7-B MOD" has degraded to CRITICAL GAP 1. Unlike the previous report where deployment was "delayed," the force is now in transit but lacking real-time Command and Control (C2) reporting (as of 241505Z).

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• Strategic Decapitation (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL): The NLT 240000Z timeline for the ballistic strike is active. The RF intent is to destroy C2 nodes in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia to paralyze the coordination of the Pokrovsk relief force. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Plan 7-B Interdiction (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL): RF Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) and Spetsnaz (SpN) elements are likely cuing KAB and artillery strikes on the 7-B MOD movement corridor. "Anticipation of success" chatter in RF channels (241452Z) suggests they have acquired the convoy's location. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Cognitive Paralysis (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH): The convergence of the Trump-Xi phone call (241456Z) and RF endorsement of the peace framework creates a "pause signal" for the National Command Authority (NCA), risking a delay in authorizing defensive fire measures. (MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Pokrovsk Axis: RF 40th/155th Separate Marine Brigades (OMBR) continue exploitation. The operational center has shifted to the M-30/T-05-15 Ground Line of Communication (GLOC), where interdiction prevents UAF withdrawal or reinforcement.
• Zaporizhzhia Front: Confirmed KAB strikes (241451Z, 241453Z) are actively degrading logistics nodes. Dempster-Shafer analysis (Belief 0.26) supports ongoing RF troop advances in this sector, reinforcing the assessment that this is a fixation operation.
• Northern/Central Sectors: RF is conducting low-cost drone probes against Kharkiv and Poltava. These are decoy operations designed to force UAF to expend Short-Range Air Defense (SHORAD) and Patriot missiles prior to the ballistic launch.
• SAR Activity: Significant activity detected at 583rd Guards AA Regiment (Score 13.28) and 1st AA Regiment (Score 8.19), indicating a massive force protection screen is being established to protect RF launch assets from UAF counter-battery fire.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• PRIORITY 1 (CRITICAL): Status of Plan 7-B MOD. Immediate verification of location, combat effectiveness, and attrition of the relief column is required.
• PRIORITY 2 (TARGETING): Ballistic Payload Composition. Confirmation of whether the 2652nd GRAU arsenal has loaded Iskander-M (quasi-ballistic) or KN-23 (North Korean ballistic) missiles to optimize interception algorithms.
• PRIORITY 3 (BDA): Zaporizhzhia Damage Assessment. Immediate BDA of the 1451Z KAB strikes to determine if southern supply lines to Pokrovsk remain viable.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 12 HOURS)

• MLCOA (AD Saturation & Convoy Strike): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Within the next 3-6 hours, RF will intensify KAB strikes on the Plan 7-B MOD corridor to halt the relief force. Simultaneously, a wave of 100+ Shahed drones will saturate UAF airspace. The main ballistic strike (Iskander/KN-23) will launch between 2200Z and 2400Z, targeting regional C2 hubs.
• MDCOA (Operational Collapse): (MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF successfully interdicts Plan 7-B MOD en route using KABs. The NCA, paralyzed by the "Peace Plan" IO, delays authorizing counter-battery fire. The subsequent ballistic strike destroys the primary J-FIRE (Joint Fires) center, leaving UAF forces at Rodynske encircled and without command guidance.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Force Protection (IMMEDIATE - J3): EXECUTE "NO COMM" PROTOCOLS FOR 7-B MOD. If communications are jammed, the relief force must assume the route is compromised. Authorize immediate dispersion into non-contiguous cells and usage of tactical Electronic Warfare (EW) (Bukovel-AD) to suppress RF ISR drones cuing KABs.
2. Air Defense Rules of Engagement (CRITICAL - Air Force): WEAPONS HOLD for Patriot/SAMP-T systems against all drone targets. These assets must be strictly reserved for the confirmed NLT 240000Z ballistic window. Use mobile fire groups (Gepard/VAMPIRE) for Shahed drones.
3. Counter-IO (URGENT - STRATCOM): Preemptively announce that the "RF endorsement" of the peace plan is a stalling tactic to cover the ballistic deployment. Explicitly link the diplomatic maneuver to the imminent strike to immunize Western partners.
4. C2 Redundancy (J6): Activate subterranean/hardened backup C2 nodes in Dnipropetrovsk immediately. Assume primary nodes are targeted for destruction within 8 hours.

//END OF REPORT//