SUBJECT: DAILY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY – 2025-12-10 15:01:45Z

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(CRITICAL) POKROVSK DETERIORATION & DIPLOMATIC WARFARE: The tactical situation in the Pokrovsk sector has degraded significantly, with Russian Federation (RF) forces claiming control of Svetloe and Grishino, creating a high-probability encirclement of Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) elements in Dimitrov. Simultaneously, the information environment is saturated by a leaked "Washington Post Peace Plan" pushing a "Korean Model" scenario, aimed at fracturing Western support. In the South, UAF forces are executing Contingency Plan PHOENIX (Stepnohorsk retrograde) under pressure, while SAR data indicates massive logistical mobilization at RF rear arsenals.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Donetsk Front (DETERIORATION): The "premature breach" noted in the previous report has evolved into a localized operational crisis. RF forces have seized Svetloe and Grishino, threatening the operational isolation of Pokrovsk.
• Operational Maneuver (NEW): Activation of Contingency Plan PHOENIX, a UAF retrograde operation in the Stepnohorsk (Zaporizhzhia) sector, initiated to prevent encirclement by the RF 37th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (GMRB).
• Deep Logistics (NEW TARGETING): RF targeting has shifted to the Shyriaieve/Ivanivka (Northwest Odesa) corridor, utilizing UAV swarms to interdict the secondary rail/road backbone, complementing strikes on Synelnykivskyi.
• Information Operations (STRATEGIC SHIFT): RF IO has pivoted from "Winter Energy Collapse" to the "Korean Model/DMZ" narrative, leveraging leaked diplomatic documents to preempt the UAF 20-point peace plan.
• New Kinetic Threat (EAST): Confirmed RF advance on the outskirts of Drobysheve (Donetsk), opening a secondary pressure front north of Slovyansk.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• Tactical Encirclement (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL): UAF units in Dimitrov are at immediate risk of isolation following the loss of adjacent settlements. RF mechanized penetration is converting tactical gains into operational depth. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Logistical Surge (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL): SAR analysis of the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base shows a massive spike in activity (Score 24.96 - RISING), indicating a major influx/outflow of munitions to sustain the Southern/Eastern offensives.
  • Legend: SAR Score 0-5 (Low), 5-10 (Moderate), 10-25 (High), 25+ (Critical).
• CI/Strike Convergence (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH): RF deep strikes on alleged C2 nodes in Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk suggest the Kuzmuk counter-intelligence (CI) breach is being actively exploited to target relocated command posts. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• Diplomatic Sabotage (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH): The "Washington Post Leak" regarding a permanent separation line is designed to erode soldier morale and deter Western materiel transfer (specifically Polish MiG-29s).

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Donetsk Front (Pokrovsk Axis):
  • RF: Consolidated gains in Svetloe and Grishino; pressing encirclement of Dimitrov.
  • UAF: 132nd DShV (Air Assault Forces) conducting holding attacks to cover the flank; Emergency Exfiltration Protocols recommended for Dimitrov garrison.
• Zaporizhzhia Front (Stepnohorsk Axis):
  • RF: 37th GMRB is exploiting gaps from recent airstrikes; 38th GMRB continues flanking Huliaipole.
  • UAF: Executing Contingency Plan PHOENIX (controlled withdrawal) to preserve combat power; "BRAVO-BLOCK" reserve remains fragmented but is hardening assembly areas.
• Deep Battle & Support:
  • RF: Claimed destruction of a UAF C2 center in Odesa; active UAV swarms targeting logistics in Shyriaieve.
  • UAF: Confirmed destruction of RF Buk-M3 and Tor-M1 systems via drone strikes; 225th Separate Assault Regiment (OShP) reports high lethality (586 targets) using FPVs.
• Siversk Axis:
  • RF: Heavy attritional assaults causing high consumption of UAF reserves.
  • UAF: Maintaining control of high ground; denying RF claims of city seizure.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• PRIORITY 1 (MANEUVER): Dimitrov Status. Are UAF Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs) into Dimitrov physically severed or only under fire control?
• PRIORITY 2 (BDA): Odesa/Dnipropetrovsk Strikes. Verification of RF claims regarding the destruction of relocated C2 nodes. Did the "RED PLAN" relocation succeed before impact?
• PRIORITY 3 (STRATEGIC): RF-India Nexus. Details on the reported defense industry negotiations between Moscow and New Delhi. Is this for immediate ammunition supply or long-term tech transfer?

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MLCOA (Pocket Liquidation & IO Blitz): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will prioritize the liquidation of the UAF pocket in Dimitrov NLT 2025-12-11T1200Z to secure the southern flank for the final push on Pokrovsk. Simultaneously, RF state media will saturate the global information space with "Korean Model" narratives to distract from UAF diplomatic efforts.
• MDCOA (Southern Collapse): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) The execution of Plan PHOENIX fails due to RF electronic warfare jamming and the 37th GMRB's speed, leading to the rout of UAF forces in Stepnohorsk. Concurrently, the 260th GRAU resupply reaches the front, allowing RF to double artillery saturation rates in the East.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Maneuver (IMMEDIATE - J3): ACTIVATE DIMITROV EXFILTRATION. Trigger emergency breakout corridors for forces in Dimitrov immediately. Provide maximum suppressive fire support from 132nd DShV to facilitate withdrawal to the secondary line west of Grishino.
2. StratCom (URGENT - P7): DENY "KOREAN MODEL". National Command Authority must issue a statement rejecting the "Washington Post Peace Plan" leaks. Frame the conflict strictly within the bounds of the newly finalized 20-point plan to maintain troop morale.
3. Targeting (PRIORITY - J2/J3): STRIKE 260th GRAU BASE. Task deep strike assets (drone/missile) to interdict the detected logistical surge at the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base (SAR Score 24.96). Disruption here slows the Stepnohorsk offensive.
4. Logistics (IMMEDIATE - J4): SECURE SHYRIAIEVE CORRIDOR. Deploy mobile Short-Range Air Defense (SHORAD) to the Shyriaieve/Ivanivka rail spur immediately to counter the active UAV swarm threat identified in recent reporting.

//END OF REPORT//