SUBJECT: DAILY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY – 2025-12-13 DTG: 2025-12-13T15:30Z

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(CRITICAL) OPERATIONAL FLUIDITY & KAB ESCALATION: The anticipated decisive artillery saturation by the 260th GRAU arsenal has not materialized within the predicted window (NLT 130000Z), likely substituted or delayed by a massive expansion of Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes now targeting the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk administrative boundary. The operational situation around Pokrovsk has shifted from "Probable Seizure" to CONTESTED, following a successful UAF counter-attack by the "Skelya 425" unit. Odesa faces a critical sustainment crisis with unknown restoration timelines for power and water, creating severe vulnerabilities for southern logistics.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Pokrovsk Sector (REVERSAL): Previously assessed as "Probable Seizure," the sector is now assessed as HIGHLY CONTESTED. UAF unit "Skelya 425" destroyed an RF mechanized column, denying RF consolidation.
• KAB Targeting (EXPANSION): The KAB threat has expanded geographically from the immediate front line (Kharkiv/Donetsk) to the operational rear (Dnipro boundary), threatening strategic logistics hubs previously considered safe from glide bombs.
• 260th GRAU (DELAY/CHANGE): The predicted massive artillery barrage (NLT 130000Z) did not initiate as a singular "time-on-target" event. RF is likely phasing fires or facing logistical friction.
• Odesa Infrastructure (DETERIORATION): Assessment downgraded to SYSTEMIC FAILURE. Authorities cannot provide restoration timelines for basic utilities, creating a specific vector for RF hybrid destabilization operations.
• Northern Axis (TACTICAL GAIN): New reporting confirms UAF "Khartiya" grouping successfully counter-attacked near Kupyansk/Oskil River, establishing a buffer against RF drone "kill-zones."

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• Air/Missile Threat (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL):
  • KAB Saturation: High confidence in continued expansion of KAB strikes into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to sever GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication) supporting the Donbas defense.
  • Strategic AD Activity: SAR analysis indicates HIGH activity (Score 10.71) at the 531st Guards Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment (Murmansk region), suggesting RF strategic posture adjustment against potential UAF deep strikes or NATO proximity.
    • Legend: SAR Score 0-5 (Low), 5-10 (Moderate), 10-25 (High), 25+ (Critical).
• Infrastructure/Nuclear Safety (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH): A confirmed blackout at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) (12th instance) coincides with kinetic strikes, raising the risk of a radiological incident to distract/divert UAF resources.
• Hybrid Warfare (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH): RF IO is actively inciting violence against Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCCs) in Odesa, leveraging the power outage to foment civil unrest.
• Zaporizhzhia Front (THREAT LEVEL: MEDIUM): Unconfirmed RF claims of a breakthrough at Huliaipole require immediate verification, as this would threaten the eastern flank of the southern front.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Eastern Axis (Donetsk):
  • Pokrovsk: UAF "Skelya 425" engaged and destroyed an RF mechanized column, preventing RF stabilization of the sector.
  • Kramatorsk Approaches: RF tactical aviation is executing KAB strikes on the Kramatorsk logistics tail near the Dnipro border.
• Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy):
  • Kupyansk: UAF "Khartiya" unit broke through RF drone screens to reach the Oskil river line (Tishchenkivka/Kindrashivka area).
  • Kharkiv City: Sustained KAB and UAV pressure continues to fix UAF air defense assets.
• Southern Axis (Odesa/Zaporizhzhia):
  • Odesa: Port access and Danube logistics (Vylkove/Tatarbunary) targeted by UAVs. Energy grid critical.
  • Huliaipole: RF forces claim breakthrough; UAF confirms destroying significant enemy UAV infrastructure (15 antennas, 22 launch sites) in the sector.
• Rear Area/Logistics:
  • RF Rear: Fuel train derailment confirmed in Penza (RF), disrupting deep logistics.
  • UAF Sustainment: Czech Republic delivered 1.8 million munitions, alleviating immediate shell hunger.
  • Diplomatic: GUR/US facilitated prisoner exchange with Belarus (100+ released), signaling a temporary Minsk-Washington channel thaw.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• P1 (CRITICAL): 260th GRAU Disposition. The artillery surge did not trigger at 130000Z. Is the ammo dispersed to battery level for a rolling barrage, or was the convoy interdicted/delayed?
• P2 (URGENT): Huliaipole Breakthrough Verification. Verify RF claims of breaching defenses at Huliaipole. Is this a feint or a structural failure?
• P3 (PRIORITY): KAB Launch Nodes (Dnipro Vector). Identify the specific airfields and flight paths used for the new KAB strikes targeting the Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk boundary.
• P4 (HYBRID): Odesa Civil Unrest. Indicators of organized RF proxy groups preparing to physically attack TCC/Police infrastructure in Odesa within the next 12 hours.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MLCOA (Adaptive Squeeze): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will pivot from the delayed "massive artillery bang" to a rolling KAB-led offensive. They will utilize air superiority to pound UAF supply lines at the Dnipropetrovsk border while conducting fixing attacks at Huliaipole and renewed mechanized thrusts at Pokrovsk to negate the "Skelya 425" success.
• MDCOA (Southern Collapse & Nuclear Blackmail): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF utilizes the ZNPP power instability to threaten a radiological accident, forcing a pause or diversion of UAF resources. Simultaneously, a coordinated "internal" uprising in Odesa (instigated by RF assets leveraging the blackout) disrupts rear-area logistics, effectively severing the Southern GLOCs.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Maneuver (IMMEDIATE - OC East): REINFORCE POKROVSK SUCCESS. Immediate resupply and support to "Skelya 425" to convert their tactical counter-attack into a stabilized defensive line. Do not allow RF to recover initiative in this sector.
   • Trigger: Immediate.
2. Air Defense (URGENT - J3): ADJUST FOR KAB RANGE. Reallocate mobile SHORAD and EW assets to the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk boundary. The threat has moved West; static defenses in the old rear area are now on the front line of the air war.
   • Trigger: Confirmation of Su-34 flight paths crossing provisional boundaries.
3. Homeland Security (PRIORITY - SBU/NatGuard): ODESA STABILITY. Deploy National Guard reinforcements to protect TCCs and critical infrastructure repair crews in Odesa. Issue preemptive curfews if crowd dynamics deteriorate.
   • Trigger: First report of physical violence against TCC personnel.
4. ISR (IMMEDIATE - J2): VERIFY HULIAIPOLE. Task tactical UAVs to the Huliaipole sector to confirm/deny RF breakthrough claims. If false, authorize immediate StratCom denial to prevent morale decay.

//END OF REPORT//