SUBJECT: DAILY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY – 2026-01-12 DTG: 2026-01-12T15:00Z AOR: Eastern Europe / Ukraine / Russian Strategic Rear

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(NEW) The operational center of gravity has shifted from the kinetic front to a critical "Frozen Rear" crisis in Kyiv. Confirmed outages of heat to ~800 residential buildings during -20°C conditions (1454Z), combined with persistent Ministry of Justice registry hacks, threaten to paralyze administrative and civil resilience. On the battlefield, Russian Federation (RF) forces have initiated atypical flanking maneuvers with UAVs approaching Kharkiv from the west, while UAF drone units (155th OMBr) have successfully established a "kill zone" in Pokrovsk, temporarily halting RF momentum despite the deployment of new K-15 Electronic Warfare (EW) complexes. Strategically, the UK has authorized the seizure of RF "Shadow Fleet" vessels, opening a new maritime economic front.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Northern Threat Vector: EVOLVED. Previous assessments focused on North/East vectors. Current data (1445Z) confirms UAVs approaching Kharkiv from the West, indicating a bypass of established Air Defense (AD) corridors or transit from deep-rear launch sites.
• Kyiv Status: CRITICAL DEGRADATION. The threat has escalated from potential strikes to confirmed infrastructure failure (heating loss during extreme freeze), necessitating potential diversion of military engineering assets to civil support.
• Pokrovsk Sector: STABILIZED. Contrary to the "High Attrition" noted previously, UAF 155th OMBr and 68th Jaeger Brigade have achieved tactical overmatch via drone swarms, destroying RF armor within city limits (1413Z).
• Information Domain: ESCALATED. RF MoD has released retroactive Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) claiming the total disablement of the Lviv State Aviation Repair Plant (F-16 maintenance node), shifting from general threats to specific capability-denial claims.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

(SAR Score Legend: 0-5 Low/Routine | 5-15 Moderate/Monitor | 15+ High/Critical)

• Belarusian AD Posture (THREAT LEVEL: RISING)
  • Indicators: 15th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade (Belarus) SAR Score 9.08 (RISING +3.75); 1st AA Regiment SAR Score 6.84 (RISING +2.89).
  • Assessment: (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) Significant spike in SAR activity at Belarusian AD nodes suggests heightened readiness or integration with RF air defense networks, possibly to cover the "Western Vector" UAV launches detected near Kharkiv.
• Kyiv "Frozen Rear" (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL)
  • Indicators: 800 buildings without heat; -20°C confirmed; TPP-5/TPP-6 non-operational.
  • Assessment: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The convergence of kinetic damage and weather warfare creates a high probability of localized humanitarian collapse. This risks forcing the State Emergency Service (DSNS) to request military aid, diluting rear-area logistics manpower.
• RF Technical Adaptation (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH)
  • Indicators: Visual confirmation of K-15 EW Complex (1403Z); Buk-M3 hunting HIMARS/KABs (1305Z).
  • Assessment: (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) The deployment of K-15 specifically to counter UAF drone dominance in Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk indicates RF is rapidly fielding prototype/scarce EW assets to plug tactical gaps.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Northern Axis (Kyiv/Kharkiv/Sumy):
  • Kharkiv: UAVs detected approaching from the West (1445Z), creating a dilemma for radar orientation.
  • Kyiv: UAVs utilizing the Kyiv Reservoir terrain masking for approach (1421Z).
  • Sumy: Transit corridor for Shahed-types actively mapping new AD positions (1323Z).
• Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk/Donetsk):
  • Pokrovsk: UAF 155th OMBr and "Dovbush Hornets" conducting effective "active defense," destroying RF assault groups in urban terrain (1413Z).
  • Berestok: Unconfirmed RF presence in western outskirts; potential flank threat to Kurakhove (1302Z).
  • Captures: POW from RF 132nd Motorized Rifle Brigade captured near Dobropillya, providing INT on force composition (1426Z).
• Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
  • Zaporizhzhia: RF Reconnaissance UAVs operating freely to spot for artillery (1446Z).
  • Kherson: Continued terror-shelling of residential zones (1427Z).
• Strategic / Rear:
  • Cyber: Ministry of Justice registries (Debtors, DRACS) remain offline (1413Z), impeding mobilization processing and logistics.
  • Perm Krai: FSB claims interdiction of sabotage attempt on Chusovoy railway bridge (1440Z).
  • Maritime: UK authorizes forceful seizure of sanctions-evading "Shadow Fleet" tankers (1421Z).

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• P1 (Battle Damage Assessment): Lviv Aviation Plant. RF MoD claims the facility is "disabled" (1325Z). Verification is critical to assess impact on F-16/MiG-29 availability.
• P2 (Tech Intelligence): K-15 EW Specs. Need SIGINT/ELINT parameters on the K-15 complex identified in Zaporizhzhia (1403Z) to update UAF drone frequency hopping protocols.
• P3 (Tactical Air): Kharkiv UAV Origin. Determine if the "Western Vector" UAVs (1445Z) are looping from RF territory or if this indicates a new launch site in the Sumy/Poltava seam.
• P4 (Blue Force Status): F-16 Integrity. Verify status of airframes following unconfirmed RF claims of a shootdown (1405Z).

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

• MLCOA (Kyiv Energy Saturation): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Within the next 6-12 hours, RF will launch a coordinated Shahed/Missile strike targeting the remaining functional heating nodes in Kyiv. The current reservoir-approach UAVs (1421Z) are pathfinders. The intent is to make the "heating crisis" irreversible during the -20°C window.
• MDCOA (Pokrovsk Mechanized Push): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF exploits the registry outage (administrative chaos) and the extreme cold (reduced UAF drone battery life) to launch a massed mechanized assault on Pokrovsk at dawn. They likely calculate that UAF FPV efficiency will drop significantly in -20°C, negating the "kill zone."
• Strategic Forecast: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will engage in asymmetric maritime retaliation against British commercial shipping or naval assets in the Black Sea/Atlantic in response to the "Shadow Fleet" seizure authorization.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Kyiv Thermal Defense: TRIGGER: Nightfall (now). ACTION: Prioritize mobile AD groups (Gepard/Viktor) to the Kyiv Reservoir approach vector. Engineering units must be prepared to assist DSNS with civilian heating to prevent rear-area destabilization.
2. EW Counter-Measures: TRIGGER: K-15 identification. ACTION: Task ELINT platforms to isolate K-15 signatures in Zaporizhzhia. Distribute frequency-hopping updates to 155th OMBr drone operators immediately.
3. Kharkiv Radar Re-orientation: TRIGGER: Western UAV approach. ACTION: Re-orient a sector of Kharkiv's surveillance radar to the West/Southwest to detect flanking leakers.
4. Information Warfare: TRIGGER: F-16 shootdown rumors. ACTION: If false, release visual evidence of F-16 operations (dated) to maintain morale and ally confidence. If true, impose immediate strict embargo and prepare damage control narrative focusing on pilot survival/rescue.

//END OF REPORT//