SUBJECT: DAILY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY – 2025-11-29 15:00:53Z

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(CRITICAL) TACTICAL FAILURE & TECHNOLOGICAL ESCALATION: The operational situation in the Southern Sector has deteriorated from containment to localized collapse. The Russian Federation (RF) Vostok Group is exploiting the logistical strangulation of the UAF 33rd Separate Assault Regiment (33 OShP) to force a tactical breach near Stepnohorsk, shifting focus from Huliaipole. Simultaneously, RF forces have formalized a new Drone Systems Troops (BPS) doctrine, deploying Air-to-Air (A2A) capable UAVs to strip UAF of aerial reconnaissance. Strategically, RF logistics have adapted rapidly to previous deep strikes by activating alternative rail and road routes through Kazakhstan, mitigating the impact of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal damage.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Southern Front Status (DETERIORATED): Changed from "Tactical Containment" to "Localized Breach & Retrograde." The logistical failure on the Konstiantynivka Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) has forced the 33 OShP to abandon equipment and execute a defensive withdrawal; RF focus shifted from Huliaipole to Stepnohorsk.
• Drone Warfare (NEW DOCTRINE): RF has formalized drone operations under Drone Systems Troops (BPS), moving from opportunistic use to centralized Command and Control (C2). New intelligence confirms deployment of A2A UAVs ("Geran-fighters") specifically to hunt UAF ISR platforms.
• RF Logistics (ADAPTED): The assessment of "Logistical Severance" regarding the CPC terminal is downgraded. RF has successfully activated alternative Kazakh rail/road corridors, bypassing the damaged terminal.
• Strategic Rear (STABILIZED): The immediate threat of massive missile saturation (Kyiv) has transitioned to a "Post-Strike Consolidation" phase, focused on thermal denial (heating infrastructure damage) rather than immediate decapitation.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• Tactical Air Superiority (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL): The introduction of RF A2A UAVs creates an immediate risk of "blindness" for UAF tactical units. If UAF FPV/ISR drones are neutralized, the defense at Stepnohorsk will lose fire-correction capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Stepnohorsk Encirclement (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH): The fragmentation of the 33 OShP due to supply starvation, combined with fresh RF motorized rifle assaults (37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade), threatens to turn a tactical retrograde into an operational rout. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Logistical Resilience (THREAT LEVEL: MEDIUM): RF activation of Kazakhstan alternative routes negates the strategic shock of the UAF deep strike campaign. Without immediate interdiction of these new rail hubs, RF Vostok Group POL (Petroleum, Oil, Lubricants) stocks will stabilize within 72 hours. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Internal Destabilization (IO): RF Information Operations (IO) are aggressively targeting National Command Authority (NCA) stability, leveraging the resignation/firing rumors of key leadership (Yermak) to suggest political collapse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Aerial/AD Disposition (SAR INDICATORS): Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) analysis of the 1488th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment shows a score of 13.88 - RISING*, confirming RF is surging AD assets to protect rear logistics hubs against UAF deep strikes.
  • Legend: SAR Score 0-5 (Low), 5-10 (Moderate), 10-25 (High), 25+ (Critical).

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Southern Axis Breach: RF Vostok Group has bypassed the hardened Huliaipole center to exploit the Stepnohorsk-Vremyevsky vector. Elements of the UAF 3rd Assault Brigade are deploying to establish blocking positions behind the retreating 33 OShP.
• Technological Escalation: The 4th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade is confirmed to be integrating the new BPS doctrine, utilizing NTK Kurier UGVs for GLOC interdiction and A2A drones for airspace clearance.
• Maritime Operations: UAF Naval Forces successfully struck the RF shadow fleet tanker Virat near the Turkish coast. This confirms UAF capability to sustain economic pressure despite RF countermeasures.
• Logistical GLOC Failure: The Konstiantynivka GLOC is assessed as effectively closed due to "Kurier" UGV ambushes and remote mining (ISDM Zemledeliye). Supply convoys are unable to reach the 33 OShP.
• Civilian Infrastructure: Recent RF strikes on Kyiv have successfully damaged district heating networks (Obolon/Sviatoshynskyi), enforcing a "Thermal Denial" strategy during sub-freezing conditions.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• PRIORITY 1 (SIGINT/TECHINT): A2A UAV Specifications. Technical characteristics (frequency, guidance, payload) of the RF "Geran-fighter" drones are required to tune UAF Electronic Warfare (EW) countermeasures.
• PRIORITY 2 (IMINT): Kazakhstan Transit Nodes. Identification of specific rail classification yards and border crossings in the Caspian/Volga region being used for the new RF POL supply route.
• PRIORITY 3 (HUMINT): BPS C2 Nodes. Precise geolocation of the Command and Control centers for the newly formed Drone Systems Troops in the Zaporizhzhia sector to enable Hunter-Killer strikes.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MLCOA (Tactical Exploitation & Blindness): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF Vostok Group will utilize A2A UAVs to degrade UAF ISR over Stepnohorsk NLT 2025-11-30 0600Z. Under this aerial cover, and utilizing reserves replenished via Kazakh routes, they will push to overrun the 33 OShP rear guard before UAF 3rd Assault Brigade can fully consolidate the secondary defensive line.
• MDCOA (Operational Collapse via Hybrid Shock): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF synchronizes the Stepnohorsk ground assault with a localized Starlink denial event (jamming/cyber). The resulting loss of communication prevents the 33 OShP from coordinating with the relieving 3rd Assault Brigade, leading to fratricide or encirclement, while RF IO amplifies "government collapse" narratives to freeze UAF strategic reserve commitment.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Counter-A2A Defense (IMMEDIATE - J3/EW): INITIATE OPERATION "SKY SWEEPER". Immediately reallocate 30% of mobile C-UAS (Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems) and EW assets from Kyiv infrastructure defense to the Stepnohorsk-Vremyevsky sector. Frontline units must be equipped with thermal detection to spot and jam RF A2A drones NLT 2025-11-29 2200Z.
2. Counter-Logistics Strike 2.0 (URGENT - J2/J3): AUTHORIZE TRANS-BORDER TARGETING. Develop and execute deep strike packages against the newly identified Kazakh-RF rail transshipment hubs (Caspian/Volga region) NLT 2025-11-30 1200Z. The RF logistical adaptation must be broken before Vostok Group stocks are fully replenished.
3. Stepnohorsk Stabilization (CRITICAL - J3): EXECUTE "SCORCHED EARTH" RETROGRADE. Authorize UAF 33 OShP to destroy all non-recoverable heavy equipment immediately. The priority is preserving personnel for integration with the 3rd Assault Brigade's blocking line. Deploy Hunter-Killer SOF teams to sanitize the GLOC of Kurier UGVs to facilitate casualty evacuation.
4. Strategic Communications (IMMEDIATE - NCA): UNIFIED LEADERSHIP ADDRESS. The National Command Authority must issue a visual address NLT 2025-11-29 2000Z debunking the "Yermak Resignation" rumors and confirming the tactical plan for the South. Silence is currently acting as a force multiplier for RF IO.

//END OF REPORT//