SUBJECT: DAILY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY – 2026-01-06 DTG: 2026-01-06T15:00Z AOR: Eastern Europe / Ukraine / Russian Federation Rear

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(NEW) The operational tempo has escalated significantly in the deep rear while the tactical situation in the Donbas deteriorates. Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) successfully struck the Kostroma GRAU Arsenal and Lipetsk Oil Depot, confirming a shift to deep-interdiction logic. However, the Russian Federation (RF) has countered by physically severing Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs) in the north (Znobovka River bridge destruction) and significantly surging tactical aviation assets at AB Voronezh Malshevo (SAR Score 21.65 - CRITICAL). The confusion regarding control of Rodinskoye suggests a potential localized collapse of defense, threatening the Myrnohrad rail link.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Deep Strike Capability: ESCALATION. Moving beyond the "threat" phase (Jan 5), UAF successfully hit the Kostroma GRAU Arsenal (500km+ range) and Lipetsk, confirming the capability to penetrate deep RF Air Defense (AD) networks.
• Sumy Sector: HARDENING. RF posture has shifted from "occupation" of Hrabovske to "isolation." The destruction of the Znobovka River bridge (1442Z) indicates an intent to seal the border sector and prevent UAF counter-maneuver, rather than just a fixing operation.
• Tactical Aviation Logistics: CRITICAL SURGE. SAR data indicates a massive spike at AB Voronezh Malshevo (Score 21.65, up from 14.65 avg), suggesting a concentration of Su-34/Su-25 assets for an imminent saturation bombing campaign, likely targeting the Donetsk/Kharkiv seams.
• Technological Threat: NEW CAPABILITY. First confirmed deployment of RF "Kuryer" Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) in Kherson and a specialized "Anti-Baba Yaga" drone system, marking a rapid adaptation to UAF unmanned superiority.
• Rodinskoye Status: NEGATIVE TREND. Conflicting reports suggest UAF control is degrading to "flag-planting" operations (info-warfare presence) versus physical control, increasing the threat to Myrnohrad.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

(SAR Score Legend: 0-5 Low/Routine | 5-15 Moderate/Monitor | 15+ High/Critical)

• Tactical Aviation Saturation (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL)
  • Indicators: AB Voronezh Malshevo SAR Score 21.65 (SPIKE); confirmed KAB launches across Donetsk/Sumy (1344Z).
  • Assessment: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The surge at Voronezh indicates the staging of a large-scale Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) campaign. RF intends to saturate UAF defensive belts in the East with airpower to compensate for the "forest flanking" difficulties in Lyman.
• Northern Border Isolation (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH)
  • Indicators: Destruction of Znobovka Bridge; continued hold on Hrabovske by RF 34th OMSBBr.
  • Assessment: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF is shaping the battlefield to trap local UAF border units. By cutting GLOCs, they aim to force a UAF withdrawal or destroy units in place without committing heavy armor deep into Sumy.
• Strategic Missile Strike (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH)
  • Indicators: AB Monchegorsk SAR Score 7.87 (RISING); holiday (Jan 6/7) symbolism.
  • Assessment: (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) Tu-95/160 activity remains elevated. A retaliatory strike for Kostroma/Lipetsk is probable within 12-24 hours, likely timed to coincide with Orthodox Christmas (Jan 7) for psychological impact.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Deep Rear (Russia):
  • Kostroma: GRAU Arsenal struck (1441Z). BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) pending, but likely impacts ammunition flow to "Zapad" Group.
  • Lipetsk: Oil depot confirmed hit (0457Z).
• Northern Axis (Sumy):
  • RF "North" Group destroyed the Znobovka bridge, complicating UAF logistics.
  • RF 34th OMSBBr maintains control of Hrabovske; KAB strikes reported (1355Z).
• Eastern Axis (Donbas):
  • Rodinskoye: RF claims capture/clearing; UAF presence described as symbolic by enemy sources. Likely "Grey Zone" transitioning to RF control.
  • Lyman: RF shifting to "forest flanking" tactics to avoid UAF drone surveillance.
  • Myrnohrad: RF utilizing bypass tactics rather than frontal assault.
• Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
  • Kherson: RF deployed "Kuryer" UGVs (robots) for combat support (1021Z).
  • Dnipro: 300-ton oil spill at "Oleyna" plant continues to block heavy transport.
  • Kryvyi Rih: Confirmed ballistic strike on infrastructure (1346Z); site serves as a "blind spot" for warning systems.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• P1 (Logistics): AB Voronezh Malshevo Payload. What specific airframes and munitions have arrived to cause the SAR spike to 21.65? (Differentiates between a KAB surge vs. missile staging).
• P1 (Ground Truth): Znobovka Crossing. Does UAF possess bridging capabilities or alternate ford sites near the destroyed bridge? (Determines risk of encirclement).
• P2 (Enemy Tech): "Anti-Baba Yaga" Specs. Is the new RF counter-drone system kinetic (net/projectile) or EW-based?
• P2 (IO/Dip): Peacekeeping Proposal. Confirm veracity of the "France/UK/Turkey" proposal reported by Le Monde. Is this a shaping operation or genuine diplomatic maneuver?

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

• MLCOA (Holiday Saturation): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Utilizing the assets staged at Voronezh Malshevo, RF will launch a maximum-effort KAB wave against Donetsk and Sumy defensive lines NLT 2026-01-07 0600Z. This will be paired with "Christmas Truce" disinformation to confuse UAF response times.
• MDCOA (Sumy Trap): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF 34th OMSBBr utilizes the severed Znobovka crossing to pin UAF border forces against the river, while maneuvering to cut the H-07 highway completely, effectively creating a "sanitary zone" by force rather than occupation.
• Strategic Retaliation: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) In response to the Kostroma/Lipetsk strikes, RF will likely target energy infrastructure in Kyiv or Dnipro using Tu-95MS platforms from Monchegorsk within the next 24 hours.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Air Defense Re-posture: TRIGGER: Immediate. ACTION: Reorient mid-range AD systems to cover vectors from Voronezh Malshevo towards Kharkiv/Donbas to counter the anticipated aviation surge (SAR 21.65).
2. Sumy Engineering: TRIGGER: Confirmation of Znobovka bridge destruction. ACTION: Pre-position pontoon/bridging assets to the Sumy border sector to ensure GLOCs for forward units remain viable; prepare withdrawal routes if H-07 is threatened.
3. Counter-Robotics: TRIGGER: Sighting of "Kuryer" UGVs. ACTION: Disseminate guidance to FPV operators on thermal signatures and weak points of RF ground robots (optics/comms antennae).
4. Information Warfare: TRIGGER: RF "Christmas/Peace" narratives. ACTION: Pre-bunk "unilateral ceasefire" claims by highlighting the Voronezh aviation buildup and continued KAB strikes, framing RF actions as cynical manipulation of the holiday.

//END OF REPORT//