1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Russian forces are concentrating for a likely large-scale assault on Chasiv Yar within 48-72 hours, while simultaneously introducing new tactical and strategic threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) A significant shift in ground tactics towards small, UAV/EW-supported probing attacks is confirmed, and the first operational use of P-800 Onyx anti-ship missiles against ground targets in Odesa indicates a new threat to critical coastal infrastructure.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS (24-HOUR PERIOD)

• NEW CAPABILITY DEPLOYED: Confirmed use of Bastion-P coastal defense system launching P-800 Onyx missiles against ground targets in Odesa. This is a significant deviation from their intended anti-ship role.
• TACTICAL SHIFT: A marked decrease in large-scale mechanized assaults across the front, replaced by coordinated small-unit (squad/platoon) probing attacks heavily enabled by FPV drone swarms and localized EW suppression.
• FORCE CONCENTRATION: (NEW) Satellite and SIGINT confirm elements of the 98th VDV (Airborne) Division are consolidating in forward staging areas east of Chasiv Yar, indicating final preparations for offensive operations.
• OPERATIONAL TEMPO SHIFT: The operational tempo along the Avdiivka axis has notably decreased, likely for reconstitution, while pressure is increasing on the Chasiv Yar axis.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• STRATEGIC MISSILE THREAT (INCREASED): The P-800 Onyx missile presents a new, high-priority threat to hardened and critical infrastructure in southern coastal regions. Its high speed and low-altitude flight profile challenge existing air defense postures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• GROUND ASSAULT THREAT (IMMINENT/HIGH): The concentration of elite VDV units, coupled with preparatory shaping operations, indicates a high likelihood of a major ground assault to seize Chasiv Yar.
• UAV/EW THREAT (INCREASED): The enemy is demonstrating improved integration of FPV drone swarms with EW systems. This combined arms approach increases the threat to our forward positions, C2 nodes, and logistics, degrading our own UAS effectiveness and increasing risk to frontline personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• CHASIV YAR AXIS (DONBAS):

  • Enemy forces, primarily elements of the 98th VDV Division, are confirmed consolidating east of the city. Activity is consistent with final preparations for a major assault. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Current activity is limited to intense artillery preparation and small-unit probing attacks against Ivanivske to secure the southern flank for the main assault. (CONFIRMED)

• AVDIIVKA AXIS (DONBAS):

  • A significant reduction in offensive actions has been observed. Enemy units appear to be conducting reconstitution and force rotation after previous costly assaults. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

• SOUTHERN AXIS (ODESA):

  • (NEW) At least two P-800 Onyx missiles struck port infrastructure in the Odesa region. Damage assessment is ongoing, but this marks a significant escalation and new capability employment in this sector. (CONFIRMED)

• KHERSON & ZAPORIZHZHIA AXES:

  • Activity remains characterized by positional fighting and artillery duels with no significant changes to the FLOT (Forward Line of Own Troops).

• KHARKIV/KUPIANSK AXIS:

  • Russian forces continue localized assaults near Synkivka and Terny, but have made no confirmed advances. These actions are assessed as fixing operations to prevent Ukrainian redeployment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• Primary Gap: What is the specific trigger and timing for the main assault on Chasiv Yar?
• What is the estimated stockpile of P-800 Onyx missiles available for land-attack missions and what are their primary launch locations in Crimea?
• Location and C2 structure of the mobile EW units coordinating with FPV drone swarms. Understanding their operational patterns is critical for developing effective countermeasures.
• Enemy intent regarding the decreased tempo near Avdiivka: is this a temporary refit or a longer-term operational pause?

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (24-48 HOURS)

• ENEMY MOST LIKELY COURSE OF ACTION (MLCOA): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Russian forces will launch a multi-pronged ground assault on Chasiv Yar within the next 48-72 hours, spearheaded by 98th VDV Division elements, likely attempting to envelop the city from the north and south. This assault will be preceded by massive artillery and air bombardment.
• ENEMY MOST DANGEROUS COURSE OF ACTION (MDCOA): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) In coordination with the Chasiv Yar assault, Russia launches a new wave of P-800 strikes against high-value targets (e.g., air defense sites, command centers) in Odesa and Mykolaiv to suppress defenses and disrupt command and control ahead of further operations in the south.
• ADDITIONAL PREDICTIONS: Expect continued, widespread use of FPV drone swarms and localized EW to support probing attacks across the front, aimed at fixing Ukrainian defenders and identifying weaknesses.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

• PRIORITY 1: Immediately reinforce the Chasiv Yar sector with additional anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) teams and combat engineering assets to strengthen anti-armor defenses and fortifications ahead of the expected assault.
• PRIORITY 2: Adjust air defense posture in southern sectors. Task assets to develop TTPs (Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures) specifically to counter the P-800 Onyx missile profile. Disperse critical assets at port facilities.
• PRIORITY 3: Disseminate intelligence on new enemy UAV/EW integration tactics to all frontline units. Direct immediate review and adaptation of C-UAS (Counter-UAS) and ECCM (Electronic Counter-Countermeasures) TTPs.
• PRIORITY 4: Task ISR assets (SIGINT, IMINT) to focus on identifying Bastion-P launch sites in Crimea and tracking the movement of EW assets supporting ground operations, particularly near Chasiv Yar.