1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) Russian forces have concluded their tactical pause in the Avdiivka sector, launching a renewed, yet unsuccessful, ground offensive. A reinforced company-sized armored assault north of Orlivka was decisively repelled. Concurrently, SIGINT confirms the deployment of a new, advanced Electronic Warfare (EW) system, which poses a significant and immediate threat to friendly ISR and communication capabilities in the operational area.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS

• End of Tactical Pause: Enemy posture has shifted from consolidation and probing attacks (ref: INTREP-20240314-0600Z) to a renewed ground offensive, marked by a failed company-sized mechanized assault.
• Escalated EW Threat: Enemy EW posture has upgraded from 'Standard' to 'Significant' with the confirmed deployment of a new jammer system near Krasnohorivka. This represents a qualitative increase in the electronic threat.
• Confirmed Assault Failure: Previous reporting indicated potential for renewed attacks; recent ISR has now confirmed a specific, repelled assault by the 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade (MRB) with heavy enemy losses.
• New Insight on Enemy C2: SIGINT provides first-time confirmation of poor artillery coordination and tactical-level command friction within the 1st Army Corps during offensive operations.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• EW Threat Level: HIGH (INCREASED)
  • (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) A new Russian EW system, reportedly causing "significant" interference, is now active near Krasnohorivka. This system poses an immediate threat to friendly UAV navigation, C2 links, and potentially GPS-guided munitions. Its specific capabilities are a critical intelligence gap.
• Ground Assault Threat Level: MEDIUM (UNCHANGED)
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The enemy retains the will to conduct mechanized assaults despite significant armor and personnel losses. The 114th MRB and 30th MRB are assessed as still capable of launching company-sized attacks, though their effectiveness is likely degraded by poor C2 and recent casualties.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• GROUND COMBAT (ORLIVKA): At approximately 150130Z MAR, a reinforced company element from the 114th MRB, utilizing T-72B3 tanks and BMP-2 fighting vehicles, attempted to assault Ukrainian positions north of Orlivka.
  • DEFENSIVE SUCCESS: The assault was decisively repelled by elements of the 47th Mechanized Brigade. BDA from ISR assets confirms the destruction of multiple enemy armored vehicles and significant personnel casualties.
• ELECTRONIC WARFARE: At approximately 150400Z MAR, SIGINT intercepts from a 1st Army Corps C2 net confirmed the operational status of a new EW system. Intercepted chatter also highlighted complaints of poor fire support coordination during the failed Orlivka assault.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• Primary: Technical specifications, effective radius, and frequency bands of the new Russian EW system near Krasnohorivka.
• Secondary: Current combat effectiveness, disposition, and reconstitution timeline for the 114th MRB following its failed assault.
• Tertiary: Indications of a second echelon or reserve force being moved into position for a follow-on assault along the Avdiivka-Orlivka axis.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (24-48 HOUR FORECAST)

• (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will intensify artillery and FAB-series glide bomb strikes on Ukrainian defensive positions between Berdychi and Orlivka to suppress defenses and compensate for failed ground maneuvers. Further ground attacks will likely be limited to platoon-sized probes while the 114th MRB reconstitutes. The new EW system will remain active to degrade friendly ISR coverage of this activity.
• (LOW CONFIDENCE) Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): The enemy commits elements of the 30th MRB to a follow-on, battalion-sized assault on a different axis, possibly south towards Tonenke, aiming to fix the 47th Mech. Bde. at Orlivka while creating a new breach in Ukrainian lines.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

• ACTION: Task all available ELINT and SIGINT platforms to identify, geolocate, and characterize the new Russian EW system near Krasnohorivka. This is the priority intelligence requirement for immediate targeting.
• ACTION: Direct frontline units in the Avdiivka AO to employ redundant/hardened communication methods (e.g., runners, wired lines) and increase anti-drone countermeasures.
• PREPARE: Ready pre-planned artillery fires and FPV drone sorties on likely enemy assembly areas and assault corridors north and south of Orlivka to disrupt staging for follow-on attacks.
• EXPLOIT: Disseminate intelligence regarding poor Russian C2 and fire support coordination to tactical commanders to enable exploitation of these weaknesses during future engagements.