1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) The Russian Federation (RF) has executed a significant strategic shift in its deep strike campaign, moving from civilian logistics to a coordinated attack on Ukraine's Defense Industrial Base (DIB), with claimed impacts on high-value targets including "Yuzhmash" and "Motor Sich." Concurrently, Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) have achieved notable tactical successes on the Donetsk axis, reporting the clearance of RF elements from Novoselivka and the encirclement of an RF grouping near Dobropillya, directly challenging the enemy's operational narrative.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS

• RF Air Campaign Target Set (SIGNIFICANT CHANGE): The primary tactical shift in the last 24 hours is RF's re-prioritization of deep strike targets. The previous focus on civilian logistics nodes (e.g., Kramatorsk "Nova Poshta" depot) has been superseded by a large-scale, coordinated campaign aimed at degrading the Ukrainian DIB. This represents a strategic escalation intended to cripple indigenous production and repair capabilities.
• Ground Warfare Dynamics - Donetsk Axis (NEW DEVELOPMENTS): The tactical situation in Donetsk Oblast has become highly dynamic with NEW conflicting claims.
  • RF GAINS (CLAIMED): RF sources claim the capture of Kamyshevakha.
  • UAF SUCCESSES (REPORTED): UAF SOF report a successful counter-action, liquidating RF forces in Novoselivka. Crucially, UAF also reports the encirclement of RF forces in the Dobropillya area. These NEW UAF-claimed successes provide a direct counterpoint to the broad RF narrative of an impending UAF collapse on the eastern front.
• Krasnolymansk Axis Narrative (UPDATED): The previous report's critical gap regarding RF claims of defeating the UAF 3rd Army Corps has been partially addressed. UAF has initiated a counter-information operation, publicly stating the RF "summer campaign" has failed. While ground-truth BDA is still required, the information environment is now contested.
• UAF Deep Strike Capability (NEW KINETIC EVENT): UAF GUR claims a successful NEW deep strike, destroying an explosives warehouse in Tula Oblast, RF. This demonstrates continued UAF capability and intent to hold strategic targets within the RF at risk.
• RF Force Generation Posture (NEW POLICY): RF has implemented a NEW policy of year-round conscription, signaling a long-term strategic commitment to sustaining manpower levels for protracted conflict.
• International Support Environment (NEW DEVELOPMENT): NEW third-party reporting indicates the UK-led "Coalition of the Determined" may be reducing the number of military training personnel for Ukraine, a potential indicator of shifting allied support priorities or constraints.
• Zaporizhzhia Paratrooper Activity (NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE): While kinetic activity in the oblast continues (confirmed 30 wounded), there is no new specific intelligence on the disposition or intent of the RF paratrooper units noted in the previous report. This intelligence gap persists.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• Ukrainian Defense Industrial Base (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - INCREASED/NEW): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The confirmed RF campaign targeting key DIB facilities ("Yuzhmash," "Motor Sich," etc.) establishes Ukraine's entire military production and repair infrastructure as a CRITICAL and primary target set for imminent RF deep strikes.
• Donetsk Axis (THREAT LEVEL: SEVERE - DYNAMIC): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) The tactical situation is volatile. The threat remains SEVERE due to continued RF offensive pressure. However, reported UAF successes at Novoselivka and Dobropillya indicate that RF formations in this sector are also vulnerable to encirclement and localized defeats.
• RF Internal Logistics & DIB (THREAT LEVEL: MODERATE - INCREASED FOR RF): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) The claimed UAF GUR strike in Tula demonstrates an increased threat to RF's internal logistics chain for munitions and explosives, forcing RF to consider IAMD for its own rear-area strategic assets.
• Civilian Logistics Hubs (THREAT LEVEL: SEVERE - UNCHANGED): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Despite the current focus on DIB targets, civilian logistics networks remain a viable and previously targeted set. The threat level remains SEVERE.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Air Warfare:
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF executed a coordinated deep strike campaign against Ukrainian DIB targets, with multiple sources claiming impacts on "Yuzhmash" and "Yangel Design Bureau" in Dnipropetrovsk, "Motor Sich" in Zaporizhzhia, and the Pavlohrad Chemical Plant.
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF strikes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast resulted in at least 30 personnel wounded.
• Ground Warfare - Eastern Front:
  • (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF forces claim to have captured the settlement of Kamyshevakha, Donetsk Oblast. (Analytical Judgment: Requires verification, likely part of IO push).
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF SOF confirmed the successful liquidation of RF elements that had penetrated Novoselivka, Donetsk Oblast.
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF Operational Command "Dnipro" reports that RF forces are encircled in the Dobropillya area.
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF CGS Gerasimov publicly reiterated exaggerated claims of territorial control in a strategic information operation.
• UAF Deep Strike Operations:
  • (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) UAF GUR sources claim the destruction of an explosives warehouse in Tula Oblast, RF, supported by visual evidence of a large fire.
• RF Force Generation:
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Official RF documents confirm a policy shift to year-round conscription.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the full Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) of RF deep strikes on the Ukrainian DIB? Urgent IMINT/SIGINT required to verify extent of damage to "Yuzhmash," "Motor Sich," and other key facilities to assess impact on UAF sustainment.
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the accurate ground truth in Kamyshevakha and Dobropillya? ISR must be tasked to confirm/deny RF claims of capture and UAF claims of encirclement to enable immediate tactical exploitation or defensive action.
• HIGH (PERSISTING): What is the composition, disposition, and intent of RF paratrooper units previously reported in the Zaporizhzhia direction?
• HIGH (PERSISTING): Is the RF claim of liquidating Estonian officer Olev Rust credible?
• ADDRESSED: The critical intelligence gap regarding the RF IO campaign against the UAF 3rd Army Corps on the Krasnolymansk axis has been partially addressed by a direct UAF counter-IO campaign.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MOST LIKELY COA (RF STRIKES): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will conduct follow-on missile and drone strikes targeting remaining high-value DIB facilities, associated energy infrastructure, and C2 nodes to maximize damage to Ukraine's defense production ecosystem.
• MOST LIKELY COA (RF GROUND): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will commit reserves to consolidate its position in Kamyshevakha (if captured) and will launch concerted attacks to break the claimed UAF encirclement at Dobropillya. The information space will be saturated with claims of success, irrespective of the ground truth.
• MOST PROBABLE COA (UAF GROUND): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) UAF will attempt to capitalize on the claimed encirclement at Dobropillya, committing forces to reduce the pocket and destroy/capture the isolated RF units. This will be amplified by UAF STRATCOM to counter the broader RF narrative.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize DIB ISR and Hardening: Immediately task all-source ISR assets (IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT) to conduct comprehensive BDA on all targeted DIB facilities. Concurrently, direct an urgent review and redeployment of IAMD assets to harden remaining critical production and repair sites.
2. Verify and Exploit Donetsk Ground Truth: Immediately task tactical ISR (UAVs) to confirm the status of Kamyshevakha and the claimed encirclement at Dobropillya. If encirclement is confirmed, authorize commanders to take decisive action to reduce the pocket.
3. Amplify UAF Tactical Successes: Task STRATCOM and PSYOP units to immediately and aggressively disseminate verified information regarding the successful counter-attack in Novoselivka and the encirclement at Dobropillya. This is critical to counter Gerasimov's strategic IO and maintain domestic and military morale.
4. Sustain Pressure on RF Rear Areas: Continue to plan and execute deep strike operations against validated military-logistical targets within the RF to disrupt sustainment, force internal resource reallocation to air defense, and maintain the strategic initiative.

//END REPORT//