1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Russian forces have escalated operations on the Pokrovsk axis, transitioning from localized probing attacks to a coordinated, combined arms assault aimed at securing key terrain near Ocheretyne. This offensive is heavily supported by massed FAB-500 glide bomb strikes and features a newly observed night-capable Lancet-3 loitering munition, which significantly increases the threat to Ukrainian armored assets during periods of limited visibility. The immediate enemy objective is assessed as the seizure of the railway line south of Ocheretyne to disrupt Ukrainian logistics.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS

• Enemy Posture: Shift from localized probing and consolidation east of Berdychi to a determined, multi-pronged assault focused on a singular operational objective (Ocheretyne). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Air Support: Significant escalation from moderate Close Air Support (CAS) by Su-25s to extensive use of standoff FAB-500 glide bombs delivered by Su-34 platforms, indicating a deliberate shaping operation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAS Threat: Introduction of a new Lancet-3 variant equipped with an enhanced thermal optics package, enabling effective night operations for the first time in this sector. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• EW Activity: Increased from localized jamming to a sustained, high-power electronic attack targeting GPS and UAS command frequencies along the T0511 highway, consistent with the deployment of a strategic-level EW system (e.g., Shipovnik-Aero). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• UAS/LOITERING MUNITION THREAT: INCREASED (HIGH). The confirmed deployment of a night-capable Lancet-3 variant fundamentally changes the risk calculus, expanding the temporal threat window for friendly armor, artillery, and logistics. It degrades the relative safety of night-time repositioning.
• AIR THREAT: INCREASED (HIGH). The massed, systematic employment of FAB-500s is effectively reducing fortified positions prior to ground assault. This poses a critical risk to the integrity of primary and secondary defensive lines and significantly increases casualty rates among frontline troops.
• ELECTRONIC WARFARE THREAT: INCREASED (HIGH). The active Shipovnik-Aero system poses a significant degradation risk to friendly UAS operations, GPS-guided munitions, and encrypted communications along the key T0511 ground line of communication (GLOC).

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• (CONFIRMED) Elements of the Russian 15th Motor Rifle Brigade (MRB) are conducting the main ground assault. A primary vector of attack is a flanking maneuver north of Berdychi, designed to bypass established Ukrainian defensive strongpoints. (Source: HUMINT, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• (CONFIRMED) Ukrainian forces, primarily the 47th Mechanized Brigade, repelled two separate company-sized mechanized assaults. However, units reported sustaining notable casualties from the intense preparatory artillery and air bombardment. (Source: BDA, HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• (CONFIRMED) Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) Su-34s, operating from Morozovsk airbase, conducted multiple sorties to deliver FAB-500 glide bombs. Strikes were concentrated on Ukrainian positions in Semenivka and Ocheretyne. (Source: IMINT / Aviation Intel, HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• (ANALYTICAL JUDGMENT) Intercepted communications from the 15th MRB command net indicate their immediate objective is the seizure of the railway line south of Ocheretyne within the next 48 hours. (Source: SIGINT, HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• (UNCONFIRMED) Fragmentary intelligence suggests VDV (Airborne Forces) elements may be positioned for a follow-on exploitation role should the 15th MRB achieve a breakthrough. However, the specific unit designation, size, and operational readiness remain unknown. (Source: SIGINT, LOW CONFIDENCE)

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• Confirmation of the presence, designation, and disposition of reported VDV elements poised for exploitation.
• Identity of the overall operational commander coordinating the 15th MRB, air, and EW assets for the Ocheretyne assault.
• Specific locations of Lancet-3 launch teams and estimated inventory of the new night-capable variant.
• Composition, location, and intent of second-echelon forces supporting the 15th MRB.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MOST LIKELY COURSE OF ACTION (MLCOA): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Russian forces will continue their assault to seize the high ground and railway at Ocheretyne. This effort will be preceded by continued, intense FAB strikes on Ukrainian command posts, logistics nodes, and defensive strongpoints. Night operations will likely feature the new Lancet-3 variant to interdict Ukrainian reinforcements and hunt high-value targets (e.g., artillery, C2 vehicles).
• MOST DANGEROUS COURSE OF ACTION (MDCOA): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) A rapid tactical breakthrough by the 15th MRB, followed by the immediate commitment of fresh VDV exploitation forces, could lead to a collapse of the defensive line north of Semenivka. This would threaten the operational rear of Ukrainian forces in the sector and force a disorderly withdrawal to secondary defensive lines.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Counter-EW: Task ISR assets (UAV, ELINT) to immediately prioritize locating and targeting the suspected Shipovnik-Aero EW system operating along the T0511 highway.
2. Counter-UAS: Disseminate threat intelligence on the new night-capable Lancet-3 to all frontline units. Direct immediate review and strict enforcement of thermal discipline, camouflage procedures, and dispersal of high-value assets, especially during hours of darkness.
3. Maneuver: Pre-position tactical reserves to prepare for and execute a counter-attack against the exposed northern flank of the advancing 15th MRB elements as they bypass Berdychi.
4. Fires: Adjust artillery and HIMARS fire plans to interdict likely staging areas and C2 nodes for second-echelon forces, informed by the low-confidence VDV reporting, to disrupt any potential exploitation attempt.