1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Russian forces have significantly intensified their offensive posture on the Avdiivka axis, marked by a substantial increase in FAB-500 glide bomb strikes and preparatory artillery barrages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This escalation, combined with the deployment of fresh airborne (VDV) elements near Verbove, strongly indicates preparations for a large-scale, coordinated ground assault aimed at encircling Avdiivka within the next 24-48 hours. Ukrainian forces face an immediate and critical threat of tactical envelopment requiring urgent reinforcement of anti-air and counter-battery capabilities.

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2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Air Activity: NEW. A dramatic surge in the use of FAB-500 glide bombs targeting Ukrainian fortified positions, command posts (CPs), and logistics hubs in the Avdiivka sector. This represents a significant tactical shift from sporadic air support to a systematic aerial preparation campaign.
• Force Posture (Zaporizhzhia): CHANGED. Confirmed presence of elements from the 76th Guards Air Assault Division (VDV) reinforcing positions west of Verbove. This is a change from their previously assessed reserve status, indicating a commitment of high-value units to halt Ukrainian advances toward Tokmak.
• Artillery: CHANGED. A marked increase in the density and coordination of Russian artillery fire on the Avdiivka axis, synchronised with air strikes. This differs from the previous 24-48 hours of more attritional, less-focused fires.
• Electronic Warfare (EW): UNCHANGED. Russian EW activity remains high across the front, with continued significant impact on Ukrainian UAV operations and GPS-guided munitions. No new EW systems have been identified, but operational tempo is sustained.

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3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• Primary Threat: Imminent large-scale Russian ground assault on the Avdiivka axis. The combination of intense aerial bombardment and fresh force concentration presents a CRITICAL threat to the stability of the defensive line.
• Emerging Capabilities: Russian forces are demonstrating improved air-ground coordination, with glide bomb strikes effectively paving the way for follow-on artillery and potential ground manoeuvres. This synergy increases the effectiveness of their offensive actions.
• Airborne Threat: The deployment of the 76th VDV near Verbove elevates the threat to Ukrainian advances on the Zaporizhzhia front. These are professional, well-equipped forces capable of executing determined counter-attacks and complex defensive operations, posing a HIGH risk to any further breakthroughs.
• Logistical Vulnerability: The systematic targeting of CPs and logistics nodes behind the front lines by glide bombs poses a HIGH risk to Ukrainian command and control (C2) and resupply efforts, particularly in the Avdiivka sector.

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4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Avdiivka Axis:
  • Air: Over the past 24 hours, Russian tactical aviation conducted an estimated 30+ sorties employing FAB-500 glide bombs against Ukrainian positions in and around Avdiivka. Targets included platoon strongpoints, logistical depots, and suspected company-level CPs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Ground: Russian forces conducted multiple company-sized probing attacks north and south of the city, likely to fix defenders and identify weaknesses in advance of a larger assault. These probes were repelled but incurred casualties on both sides. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
• Zaporizhzhia Axis (Orikhiv-Tokmak line):
  • Force Movement: SIGINT and tactical ISR confirm elements of the 76th VDV have occupied secondary defensive lines west of Verbove. This action is assessed as a move to backstop depleted Russian units and prevent a Ukrainian breakout. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Engagements: Localized but fierce fighting continues for control of trench lines between Robotyne and Verbove. The arrival of VDV elements has stiffened Russian resistance, slowing the tempo of Ukrainian offensive operations in this sector.

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5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• The specific timing and primary axes of the anticipated Russian ground assault on Avdiivka remain unclear.
• The exact size and composition of the 76th VDV element deployed near Verbove are not fully confirmed. Is it a full regiment or a composite Battalion Tactical Group (BTG)?
• We lack precise BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) on the effectiveness of recent FAB-500 strikes against hardened Ukrainian positions.
• The status and location of Russian operational reserves behind the Avdiivka front remain a key information need.

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6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (24-48 HOUR FORECAST)

• Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will launch a multi-pronged ground assault aimed at the operational envelopment of Avdiivka, likely initiating within the next 24 hours. The main thrusts are expected from the north (Krasnohorivka) and south (Opytne/Vodyane). The preparatory air and artillery campaign will likely intensify immediately prior to the assault. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): In addition to the Avdiivka assault, Russian forces could leverage the 76th VDV elements near Verbove to launch a spoiling attack or major counter-attack against the exposed Ukrainian flank advancing towards Tokmak, forcing Ukraine to divert resources from its primary offensive effort. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

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7. RECOMMENDATIONS

• Priority 1 (Avdiivka): Immediately reinforce the Avdiivka sector with additional mobile air defense systems (SHORAD) to counter the glide bomb threat. Task ISR assets to provide persistent coverage of likely Russian assembly areas to give advanced warning of the ground assault.
• Priority 2 (Avdiivka): Pre-position QRF (Quick Reaction Force) units to respond to potential Russian breakthroughs on the northern and southern flanks of the city. Increase counter-battery fire focusing on identified Russian artillery positions supporting the offensive.
• Priority 3 (Zaporizhzhia): Task all-source intelligence to confirm the strength and disposition of the 76th VDV near Verbove. Adjust offensive plans to account for this stronger, more capable defensive force and prepare for potential counter-attacks.
• Intelligence: Focus ISR collection on identifying Russian command posts and ammunition depots behind the Avdiivka front to disrupt C2 and logistics ahead of the anticipated assault.

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END OF REPORT