INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY: 131400Z SEP 25

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW intelligence indicates a highly contested and ambiguous situation on the Kupiansk axis following an RF infiltration via subterranean pipes ("Труба 3.0"). NEW contradictory reports from UAF sources regarding the extent of RF presence in the city and control of the pipeline exit have created a critical intelligence gap and a primary focus for RF information operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF has demonstrated a CRITICAL NEW long-range strike capability, successfully attacking the Novo-Ufimsky oil refinery in Bashkortostan, Russia, approximately 1400 km from the Ukrainian border, significantly expanding the threat to RF strategic assets.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS

• Ground Combat Focus (CRITICAL SHIFT): The previous report's primary concern was the RF breakthrough on the Lyman axis. The focus has now critically shifted to the highly contested situation in Kupiansk. The RF "Труба 3.0" infiltration tactic is confirmed, but its operational success is now disputed by the UAF General Staff, creating a significant intelligence ambiguity and an intense information warfare battle not present in the last report.
• UAF Deep Strike Campaign (CRITICAL EXPANSION): Yesterday's report noted successful strikes on the Transneft facility. A NEW and strategically significant development is the confirmed UAF strike on the Novo-Ufimsky refinery, demonstrating a major expansion of deep strike range to approximately 1400 km. This vastly increases the scope of RF strategic assets at risk.
• Battlespace Ambiguity (NEW): Yesterday's reporting was relatively clear. Today is marked by NEW contradictory statements from official and semi-official UAF sources regarding the operational status of Kupiansk and the extent of the RF breakthrough in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This represents a new challenge for battlespace awareness and a potential UAF C2 or STRATCOM issue.
• Lyman Axis (PROGRESSION): The RF breakthrough reported yesterday is now confirmed as being actively exploited. NEW reports indicate RF forces are clearing the outskirts of Krasny Liman, confirming the progression of this known threat.
• RF Morale (NEW INDICATOR): A NEW report of a suicide by an RF soldier near Pokrovsk provides the first direct, albeit isolated, indicator of extremely low morale and severe combat stress among frontline RF personnel in this high-intensity sector.
• Regional Force Posture (NEW): The NEW commencement of NATO's "Grand Eagle 25" exercises in Lithuania represents a significant change in the broader regional security posture, likely as a direct signal to RF in response to its aggression.
• UAF Tactical Adaptation (NEW): A NEW report from Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration confirms a significant increase in the deployment of FPV and Mavic drones to the front, indicating a deliberate UAF tactical shift to saturate this axis with unmanned systems.
• RF Air Campaign (SCALE UPDATE): RF launched a massive wave of 164 UAVs in the last 24 hours. While the previous report noted a decrease, this new wave represents a significant number, though UAF maintained a high interception rate (137 downed).

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• UAF Ground Forces - Kupiansk Axis (THREAT LEVEL: SEVERE - NEW FOCUS): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) The primary ground threat has shifted. The potential for RF to establish and consolidate a foothold within Kupiansk city limits via the "Труба 3.0" infiltration poses a severe threat to UAF logistics and defensive integrity. The conflicting reports create high uncertainty, which is a threat in itself, complicating defensive planning.
• UAF Ground Forces - Lyman Axis (THREAT LEVEL: SEVERE - PERSISTING): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The threat remains SEVERE. RF is actively exploiting its breakthrough, and further territorial losses are likely without significant UAF reinforcement and counter-action. This axis remains a primary concern.
• RF Retaliatory Strikes (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH - INCREASED): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The successful UAF strike on the strategic Novo-Ufimsky refinery makes a large-scale retaliatory RF missile and/or drone strike on Ukrainian critical energy or DIB facilities highly likely in the next 24-72 hours.
• RF Information Operations (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH - ADAPTED): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) A NEW information warfare threat has emerged. RF is aggressively exploiting contradictory UAF statements to discredit the Ukrainian General Staff, aiming to sow confusion, undermine trust in official UAF communications, and amplify its own battlefield claims.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Ground Warfare:
  • Kupiansk Axis (HIGH CONFIDENCE): NEW RF forces have infiltrated Kupiansk via the "Труба 3.0" pipeline tactic. However, the UAF General Staff now states the pipeline exit is controlled by UAF and does not lead directly into the city, directly contradicting RF claims and creating a highly ambiguous operational picture. This is the most significant tactical development in the last 24 hours.
  • Lyman Axis (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF forces are exploiting yesterday's breakthrough, with reports of clearing operations on the outskirts of Krasny Liman and intensified pressure on Zvanovka.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Salient (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): RF claims of "liberating" additional settlements persist, but a NEW UAF military official statement denies "significant breakthroughs," creating a contested narrative similar to Kupiansk.
  • Pokrovsk Axis (HIGH CONFIDENCE): NEW intelligence indicates extremely low morale among some RF units, evidenced by a reported soldier suicide following shrapnel wounds.
  • Zaporizhzhia Axis (HIGH CONFIDENCE): NEW UAF is significantly increasing the deployment of FPV and Mavic drones to this front, signaling a tactical reinforcement with unmanned systems.
• Air Warfare & Deep Strike:
  • UAF Deep Strike (HIGH CONFIDENCE): NEW UAF has successfully struck the Novo-Ufimsky oil refinery in Bashkortostan, approximately 1400 km from Ukraine, demonstrating a new extended-range strike capability.
  • RF Air Strike (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF launched a massive wave of approximately 164 UAVs overnight; UAF reports 137 were shot down/suppressed. KAB launches persist, with NEW strikes reported on the Kherson region.
• Wider Theater:
  • NATO Exercises (HIGH CONFIDENCE): NEW Large-scale NATO exercises, "Grand Eagle 25," involving the transfer of troops and equipment to Lithuania, have commenced.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• CRITICAL (NEW - PRIORITY 1): Reconcile conflicting reports on Kupiansk. What is the verifiable RF footprint inside the city? Is the UAF General Staff's claim of controlling the pipeline exit accurate, and what is the current tactical situation at that location?
• CRITICAL (NEW - PRIORITY 2): BDA and operational/economic impact of the NEW UAF strike on the Novo-Ufimsky refinery. What is the estimated reduction in RF fuel production?
• CRITICAL (NEW): Reconcile conflicting UAF statements on the Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough. What is the current, verifiable Line of Contact and the status of UAF units near Velykomykhailivka?
• CRITICAL (PERSISTING): BDA and verification of RF claims on the Lyman axis (Kolodyazi, Kirovsk) and the current UAF defensive posture.
• HIGH (PERSISTING): Specific capabilities, TTPs, and immediate UAF countermeasures for the RF UGVs ("Kurier", "Fagot").

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MOST LIKELY COA (RF GROUND & IO): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF's main effort will be a combined kinetic and information operation focused on Kupiansk. They will attempt to consolidate any gains made via the "Труба 3.0" infiltration while aggressively disseminating video evidence (even if misleading) to discredit UAF General Staff statements and project control. The secondary ground effort will be to continue exploiting the Lyman breakthrough.
• MOST DANGEROUS COA (RF AIR): (MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE) A large-scale retaliatory missile and drone strike targeting Ukrainian energy or DIB facilities in response to the highly successful and embarrassing UAF strike on the Novo-Ufimsky refinery. This strike would be intended to inflict significant strategic damage and re-establish deterrence.
• MOST LIKELY COA (UAF): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF will prioritize counter-infiltration operations in Kupiansk to eliminate any RF presence and will likely reinforce defensive positions. STRATCOM will attempt to control the narrative by providing evidence of UAF control. UAF will likely continue its deep strike campaign, seeking new high-value targets.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize ISR and Ground Truth in Kupiansk: Immediately re-task all-source ISR (especially SIGINT and HUMINT) to determine the verifiable RF footprint inside Kupiansk city. This is the highest priority intelligence requirement to resolve the current operational ambiguity.
2. Issue Unified UAF STRATCOM Guidance: Task UAF General Staff and STRATCOM to immediately issue a single, unified, and evidence-based public statement clarifying the operational situations in both Kupiansk and Dnipropetrovsk. This is critical to counter RF IO, maintain public trust, and ensure clarity for international partners.
3. Amplify & Exploit Novo-Ufimsky Strategic Success: Task STRATCOM to immediately and aggressively publicize the successful 1400 km strike on the Novo-Ufimsky refinery. Frame this as a strategic capability that directly degrades RF's ability to fuel its war machine, boosting domestic morale and demonstrating expanded capabilities to international partners.
4. Prepare for Retaliatory Strikes: Place all air defense assets on heightened alert, particularly those protecting critical energy infrastructure and DIB facilities. Review and reinforce passive defense measures in anticipation of a likely large-scale RF retaliatory strike in the next 24-72 hours.
5. Develop PSYOP Targeting RF Morale: Task PSYOP units to develop and disseminate targeted messaging based on the NEW report of an RF soldier suicide near Pokrovsk. Messaging should be aimed at RF units engaged in high-intensity assaults, highlighting the psychological toll and questioning the value of their sacrifices.

//END REPORT//