1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) Russian forces are in the final stages of preparation for a major offensive on the KUPYANSK axis, likely commencing within 24-48 hours. This ground assault is being enabled by a multi-domain effort, including the confirmed deployment of advanced Electronic Warfare (EW) systems and a new, coordinated cyber and disinformation campaign targeting Ukrainian Command and Control (C2) infrastructure. Tactical gains have been secured southwest of Kupyansk, setting conditions for a flanking maneuver.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS

• Shift in Operational Focus: Russian main effort has decisively shifted from the LYMAN to the KUPYANSK axis.
• New Threat Vectors:
  • (CONFIRMED) Deployment of the R-330ZH Zhitel mobile EW jammer station, representing a significant upgrade to Russian EW capability in the sector.
  • (CONFIRMED) Initiation of a coordinated cyber and disinformation campaign specifically targeting Ukrainian C2 networks and troop morale.
• Tactical Developments:
  • (CONFIRMED) Russian forces have captured the settlement of IVANIVKA, southwest of Kupyansk, and are consolidating their positions. This represents a significant change from previous reports of probing attacks.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• EW Threat (HIGH): The R-330ZH Zhitel system poses a severe threat to Ukrainian operations. It is capable of suppressing satellite communications, GPS navigation, and cellular networks (GSM). Its primary targets will be UAS control links, GPS-guided munitions, and tactical communications, significantly degrading our ISR and C2 capabilities.
• Cyber Threat (HIGH): A new, sophisticated campaign is targeting C2 networks through phishing and potential malware insertion. The intent is to degrade command effectiveness and sow confusion immediately prior to the main ground assault. A parallel disinformation effort is aimed at creating panic and undermining public trust.
• Ground Threat (HIGH): The concentration of VDV (Airborne Forces) elements, combined with reports of "human wave" tactics using poorly trained mobilized infantry, indicates a Russian strategy of using expendable troops to fix Ukrainian positions while elite units conduct decisive maneuvers. The consolidation at IVANIVKA creates a significant flanking threat to Ukrainian defenses in Kupyansk.
• UAS Threat (MEDIUM-HIGH): An increased presence of Lancet loitering munitions is anticipated in conjunction with the offensive. These will likely be used to target high-value assets such as artillery systems, radar sites, and command posts that have been identified by Russian reconnaissance.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Kupyansk Axis:
  • (CONFIRMED) Capture of Ivanivka: Following intense fighting, Russian forces have secured the settlement. They are currently consolidating gains and likely preparing for follow-on attacks toward Kupyansk from the southwest.
  • Intensified Preparatory Fire: A significant increase in artillery, MLRS, and thermobaric munitions fire has been observed targeting Ukrainian forward defensive lines, command posts, and suspected logistics nodes across the axis. This is consistent with final preparations for a major assault.
  • Logistical Buildup: (CORROBORATED) SIGINT and IMINT continue to show a steady buildup of ammunition, fuel, and personnel in rear areas directly supporting the Kupyansk grouping, indicating a sustained offensive capability.
  • Probing Attacks: In addition to the successful assault on Ivanivka, multiple smaller-scale probing attacks continue along the line of contact, intended to identify weaknesses in Ukrainian defenses and fix defending units in place.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• Offensive Timeline & Composition: The precise H-hour for the main assault on KUPYANSK remains the most critical intelligence gap. The full order of battle, strength, and disposition of the concentrated VDV units require further confirmation.
• Cyber Campaign Specifics: The exact technical vectors and vulnerabilities being exploited by the Russian cyber campaign are not fully identified. The extent of any potential C2 system compromise is currently unknown.
• EW Effectiveness: Real-time BDA on the operational impact of the R-330ZH Zhitel system against our specific ISR and C2 assets is needed to develop effective countermeasures.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• PRIMARY COA (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Russian forces will launch a coordinated, multi-pronged ground assault to encircle and seize KUPYANSK. This will likely consist of a frontal assault from the east combined with a strong flanking maneuver from the newly secured positions at IVANIVKA to the southwest. The assault will be preceded by a spike in cyber-attacks and a massive artillery and EW barrage to disrupt Ukrainian C2 and defensive cohesion.
• SECONDARY COA (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): If the initial assault meets strong resistance, Russian forces will use their artillery superiority to systematically degrade Ukrainian strongpoints before committing VDV reserves for a second attempt. Diversionary attacks on the LYMAN axis remain possible to prevent the reallocation of Ukrainian reserves.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Cyber Defense: Immediately initiate a theater-wide C2 network security audit. Remind all personnel of OPSEC protocols, especially regarding phishing attempts. Standby to operate on degraded and redundant communication systems.
2. Force Protection & Dispersal: Immediately disperse high-value assets, particularly artillery systems, command posts, and ammunition depots, to mitigate the threat from Lancet drones and preparatory fires. Reinforce camouflage and concealment measures.
3. Counter-EW Operations: Prioritize dedicated ISR and electronic warfare assets to locate and target the R-330ZH Zhitel system. Ensure all units rehearse operations with degraded GPS and communications, relying on analog maps, compasses, and runners.
4. Targeting & ISR Focus: Concentrate all available ISR assets (UAS, SIGINT, satellite) on identifying the final VDV assembly areas, C2 nodes, and key logistical chokepoints supporting the KUPYANSK axis for pre-emptive targeting.
5. Operational Readiness: Alert reserve units and Quick Reaction Forces for potential rapid deployment to the KUPYANSK sector to counter a breakthrough.