1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) The Russian Federation (RF) has made the operational encirclement of Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) in the Sieversk sector its new main ground effort, following the claimed capture of Fedorivka and the commitment of the 3rd Shock Army. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Concurrently, UAF demonstrated significant tactical success, destroying a high-value RF TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" in the Vovchansk direction and liberating the settlement of Udachne on the contested Pokrovsk axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The RF deep strike campaign against Kyiv Oblast continues at an exceptionally high tempo, with UAF reporting a high volume of successful UAV interceptions.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS

• RF Ground Main Effort (SIGNIFICANT SHIFT): The enemy's main ground effort has shifted from consolidating gains around Pokrovsk to attempting an operational encirclement of UAF forces in Sieversk. This is a NEW development following the claimed capture of Fedorivka. Video evidence confirms intense combat operations by the RF 3rd Shock Army in this sector, indicating a high-priority objective.
• UAF Ground Operations (NEW TACTICAL SUCCESS): UAF has conducted a successful local counter-attack, liberating the settlement of Udachne on the Pokrovsk axis. This represents a NEW and significant tactical gain for UAF, creating a localized setback for RF forces assaulting Pokrovsk.
• UAF High-Value Target Destruction (NEW CAPABILITY DEMONSTRATED): UAF Border Guards successfully located and destroyed an RF TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" thermobaric MLRS in the Vovchansk direction. This is a NEW reported destruction of a high-value, operational-level fire support asset, demonstrating highly effective UAF drone-strike TTPs.
• RF Air Campaign (INTENSIFIED TEMPO): While the focus on Kyiv Oblast continues, the scale and tempo of the drone assault have significantly increased. NEW reporting from the UAF Air Force indicates 48 enemy UAVs were shot down or suppressed in an eight-hour period, a much higher volume than in the previous 24 hours. NEW targets within the capital region were engaged.
• Intelligence Community Assessment (NEW CORROBORATION): The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses that Russia is preparing a large-scale offensive in Donetsk Oblast. This is a NEW assessment from a key analytical body that corroborates observed RF force dispositions and the intensified operational tempo at Sieversk and Pokrovsk.
• NATO Threat Perception (NEW STRATEGIC SIGNAL): NEW public statements from the Dutch Prime Minister concerning the 5-10 minute flight time of an RF missile to The Hague represent a significant public acknowledgment from a NATO leader of the escalating, direct threat to Alliance territory.
• Environmental Factors (NEW): A NEW significant oil spill, reportedly of RF origin, has been identified in the Black Sea and is moving towards occupied Crimea. This presents a potential ecological issue and an IO opportunity.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• UAF Ground Forces - Sieversk Axis (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - INCREASED/NEW): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on encirclement success; HIGH CONFIDENCE on RF intent) The RF capture of Fedorivka and stated intent to encircle UAF forces in Sieversk elevates the threat to this sector to CRITICAL. A successful enemy encirclement would collapse a key portion of the UAF defensive line in the Donbas.
• RF High-Value Assets (THREAT LEVEL: SEVERE - NEWLY DEMONSTRATED UAF CAPABILITY): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The successful destruction of a TOS-1A by a UAF drone demonstrates a SEVERE and immediate threat to RF high-value assets (C2 nodes, long-range fires, EW systems) across the front. Enemy forces must now consider all assets vulnerable to UAF drone strikes.
• Ukrainian Critical Infrastructure - Kyiv Oblast (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - SUSTAINED/INCREASED TEMPO): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The continued and expanded massed drone attacks confirm the threat to the capital region remains CRITICAL. The high volume of UAVs indicates RF is willing to expend significant resources to test and overwhelm IAMD.
• Friendly Air Navigation (THREAT LEVEL: SEVERE - PERSISTING): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The strategic GPS jamming capability reported yesterday remains a SEVERE threat to all friendly air operations. While no new incidents were reported, the capability is assessed as persistent and deployable without warning.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Air Warfare:
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF continued a high-tempo massed UAV attack on Kyiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports 48 enemy UAVs were shot down or suppressed over an eight-hour period.
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Video confirmation shows an RF 'Geran' (Shahed-type) UAV striking a warehouse-type structure, causing a large secondary explosion and fire.
• Ground Warfare - Eastern Front:
  • Sieversk Axis: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces are conducting intense offensive operations, with combat footage confirming the involvement of the 3rd Shock Army. RF claims the capture of Fedorivka and states its intent to encircle UAF forces.
  • Pokrovsk Axis: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF forces successfully liberated the settlement of Udachne. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF ground assaults against the city of Pokrovsk itself remain contested.
  • Vovchansk Direction: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF Border Guard drone units successfully destroyed an RF TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" MLRS.
• Environmental:
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) A significant oil spill has occurred in the Black Sea and is drifting towards Crimea.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the definitive ground truth regarding the claimed operational encirclement of UAF forces in Sieversk? Task all-source ISR to assess RF force dispositions, avenues of approach, and the viability of their claim.
• CRITICAL (PERSISTING): What is the impact of the UAF liberation of Udachne on RF's ability to continue its assault on Pokrovsk?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the full BDA from the UAF strike on the RF TOS-1A? Was the full system (launch vehicle and transloader) destroyed?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the composition, disposition, and timeline for the RF forces assessed by ISW to be preparing for a large-scale offensive in Donetsk Oblast?

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MOST LIKELY COA (RF GROUND): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will commit its main effort to closing the claimed encirclement of UAF forces at Sieversk, leveraging fire support and assault elements from the 3rd Shock Army. Concurrently, RF will attempt to contain the UAF gain at Udachne and prevent a UAF counter-attack against the flank of their Pokrovsk assault group. RF IO will heavily amplify the Sieversk narrative to create the perception of a major UAF defeat.
• MOST LIKELY COA (RF STRIKES): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will conduct follow-on high-volume drone and/or missile strikes against critical infrastructure in Kyiv Oblast to maintain pressure and fix UAF IAMD assets.
• MOST PROBABLE COA (UAF): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) UAF will prioritize the defense of Sieversk to prevent encirclement, potentially committing tactical reserves to hold the line or counter-attack. UAF will seek to consolidate gains at Udachne and hunt for additional high-value targets to disrupt RF offensive momentum.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize ISR and Fires for Sieversk Salient: Immediately re-task all available ISR assets (UAV, SIGINT, IMINT) to monitor RF force movements attempting to encircle Sieversk. Pre-plan and allocate long-range precision fires (HIMARS, etc.) to interdict RF assault groups and C2 nodes in this sector.
2. Exploit Success on Pokrovsk Axis: Task units at Udachne to fortify positions and conduct reconnaissance-in-force to identify and strike the exposed flank of RF forces assaulting Pokrovsk.
3. Escalate High-Value Target Hunt: The destruction of the TOS-1A is a confirmed success. Immediately disseminate TTPs to all drone units. Task J2 to prioritize developing target packages for other identified high-value RF assets (e.g., EW systems, C2 vehicles, artillery concentrations).
4. Amplify ISW Assessment for Diplomatic Leverage: Task STRATCOM and diplomatic channels to immediately amplify the ISW assessment of an impending large-scale RF offensive to accelerate the delivery of ammunition and critical equipment from international partners.
5. Sustain IAMD for Kyiv and Prepare for High-Volume Resupply: Maintain the current surge of IAMD assets for Kyiv Oblast. Anticipate continued high-volume attacks and pre-position munitions resupply to ensure sustained defensive capability.

//END REPORT//