INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY: 121400Z SEP 25

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW intelligence indicates RF forces have achieved a significant operational breakthrough on the Lyman axis, with claims of capturing Kolodyazi and dislodging UAF from Kirovsk, representing a severe threat to the integrity of UAF defenses in this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The NEW RF salient in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast has expanded significantly with the capture of Novopetrovskoye and claimed seizure of Novomykolaivka, increasing the threat of tactical encirclement at Velykomykhailivka. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) NEW reports indicate RF has deployed unmanned ground combat vehicles (UGVs) with direct-fire and mine-laying capabilities, a significant tactical adaptation requiring immediate development of countermeasures.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS

• Ground Combat Focus (CRITICAL SHIFT): The previous report highlighted a new RF axis in Dnipropetrovsk. The battlespace has now critically evolved with the emergence of a potential RF breakthrough on the Lyman axis. RF claims of capturing Kolodyazi and Kirovsk represent a more immediate operational threat than the Dnipropetrovsk salient.
• Dnipropetrovsk Salient (EXPANDED): The RF advance has progressed beyond Sosnovka. NEW intelligence confirms the capture of Novopetrovskoye and claims of dislodging UAF from Novomykolaivka, significantly widening the salient and increasing pressure on UAF forces.
• Enemy Capability (CRITICAL - NEW): The previous report noted no new RF technological deployments. A NEW and significant development is the confirmed deployment of "Kurier" and "Fagot" unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), capable of direct fire and remote mine-laying. This represents a major change in RF ground combat capability.
• UAF Counter-Offensive (NEW SUCCESS): While the previous report focused on defensive actions, NEW UAF milblogger claims indicate a successful tactical counter-offensive on the Dobropillya direction, liberating Shakhove and Volodymyrivka. This, if verified, represents a localized reversal of RF gains.
• UAF Deep Strike Campaign (EXPANDED): The previous report noted no new deep strikes. NEW intelligence confirms successful UAF strikes on a strategic Transneft oil pumping station in Vladimir Oblast, Russia, and the Primorsk oil port, causing a suspension of oil shipments. This demonstrates an expanded range and strategic targeting focus for the UAF deep strike campaign.
• RF Information Operations (NEW NARRATIVE): RF IO has shifted to include accusations of UAF "nuclear terrorism" following an alleged UAF drone strike on ancillary facilities at the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant. A NEW IO vulnerability for RF has emerged with confirmation that a civilian in Belgorod was killed by a malfunctioning RF Pantsir air defense missile booster.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• UAF Ground Forces - Lyman Axis (THREAT LEVEL: SEVERE - NEW): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) A NEW and SEVERE threat has emerged. RF claims of capturing Kolodyazi and dislodging UAF from Kirovsk, if verified, constitute a breakthrough that threatens the stability of the entire UAF defensive line in the sector. This axis is now a primary concern.
• UAF Ground Forces - Dnipropetrovsk Salient (THREAT LEVEL: SEVERE - INCREASED): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The threat level has increased from the previous report. The capture of Novopetrovskoye and Novomykolaivka expands the salient and makes the threat of tactical encirclement to UAF forces in Velykomykhailivka more credible and immediate.
• UAF Ground Forces - All Axes (THREAT LEVEL: MEDIUM - EMERGING): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) A NEW tactical threat has emerged with the deployment of RF unmanned ground combat vehicles (UGVs). These systems pose a direct threat to UAF infantry, fortifications, and armored vehicles, and will require new tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) to effectively counter.
• UAF DIB & Critical Infrastructure (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - PERSISTING): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The threat remains CRITICAL. While the volume of strikes has decreased, RF continues to launch UAVs (40 in last wave) and KABs against infrastructure targets. A NEW threat vector is RF framing of UAF actions as "nuclear terrorism" (Smolensk NPP, Kharkiv "Neutron Source" facility), which could be used to justify future escalatory strikes.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Ground Warfare:
  • Lyman Axis (HIGH CONFIDENCE): NEW RF forces claim to have established control over Kolodyazi and "practically dislodged" UAF from Kirovsk. This represents the most significant change in ground operations in the last 24 hours.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Axis (HIGH CONFIDENCE): NEW RF forces have captured Novopetrovskoye and claim to have dislodged UAF from Novomykolaivka, expanding their new salient and increasing pressure on Velykomykhailivka.
  • Siverske Axis (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): NEW reports indicate the RF 88th Assault Brigade captured a UAF stronghold near Fedorovka, indicating localized RF tactical gains.
  • Dobropillya Axis (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): NEW UAF sources claim the liberation of Shakhove and Volodymyrivka, a potential tactical success for UAF that may disrupt RF offensive momentum in the area. Requires verification.
  • RF Robotics (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): NEW RF has deployed "Kurier" and "Fagot" UGVs with machine gun and mine-laying capabilities, representing a significant technological development in their ground forces.
• Air Warfare:
  • RF Strike (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF launched approximately 40 UAVs in the last 24 hours, of which UAF reports 33 were shot down/suppressed. KAB launches persist against Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts.
  • UAF Deep Strikes (HIGH CONFIDENCE): NEW UAF conducted a successful deep strike against the Transneft oil pumping station "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast, Russia. Further strikes on Primorsk port have reportedly suspended oil shipments.
  • Hybrid / Escalation Risk (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): NEW RF claims UAF drones attacked the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant (ancillary facilities). While RF downplayed damage, this is being heavily leveraged for an IO campaign accusing Ukraine of "nuclear terrorism."
• Naval Warfare:
  • No new combat engagements reported.
  • RF Exercises (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Large-scale, multi-branch "West-2025" exercises have commenced, involving significant naval assets from the Northern and Pacific Fleets, including strategic bombers and nuclear submarines.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• CRITICAL (NEW): What are the specific capabilities, deployment status, and tactical implications of the NEW RF UGVs ("Kurier", "Fagot")? What are immediate UAF countermeasures?
• CRITICAL (NEW): BDA and verification of RF claims on the Lyman axis (Kolodyazi, Kirovsk). What UAF units were defending, and what is the current defensive posture and risk of further collapse?
• CRITICAL (NEW): BDA and operational/economic impact of the UAF strike on the Transneft oil facility in Vladimir Oblast.
• CRITICAL (PERSISTING): Verification of RF gains in Dnipropetrovsk salient (Novopetrovskoye, Novomykolaivka). What is the strength, composition, and posture of UAF units now threatened with encirclement at Velykomykhailivka?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA of the UAF counter-offensive liberating Shakhove and Volodymyrivka? What RF units were displaced?
• CRITICAL (PERSISTING): What is the BDA of the 10 SEP massed RF strikes on Ukrainian DIB facilities in Lviv and western Ukraine?

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MOST LIKELY COA (RF GROUND): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF main effort will likely shift to exploiting the NEW breakthrough on the Lyman axis, committing forces to secure gains and advance towards Krasny Liman. The second effort will be to consolidate and expand the Dnipropetrovsk salient, increasing pressure on Velykomykhailivka. RF will likely deploy its new UGVs in assault operations on these axes to test effectiveness and amplify shock effect.
• MOST LIKELY COA (RF AIR): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF will continue UAV strikes (30-60 drones per wave) to sustain pressure and will employ KABs in direct support of ground offensives on the Lyman and Dnipropetrovsk axes. Another massed missile strike is unlikely in this period.
• MOST LIKELY COA (RF IO): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will aggressively promote its "liberations" on the Lyman and Dnipropetrovsk axes. A primary IO effort will be to amplify the "UAF nuclear terrorism" narrative regarding the Smolensk NPP and the Kharkiv "Neutron Source" facility, directing this messaging toward international bodies (UN, IAEA) to generate pressure on Ukraine and its partners.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize ISR and Fires on Lyman Axis: Immediately re-task all-source ISR to verify RF claims at Kolodyazi and Kirovsk. The priority intelligence requirement is to identify RF force composition, second-echelon reserves, and likely axes of advance to enable pre-emptive strikes against this NEW and critical breakthrough threat.
2. Develop and Disseminate Counter-UGV Tactics: Immediately task G2, G3, and technical intelligence to analyze the capabilities of the NEW RF "Kurier" and "Fagot" UGVs. Develop and disseminate immediate TTPs to frontline units for detection, targeting, and neutralization (e.g., dedicated anti-material rifle teams, FPV drone hunter-killers, targeted EW jamming).
3. Amplify UAF Strategic Strike Successes: Task STRATCOM to immediately and widely publicize the successful strikes on the Transneft facility and Primorsk port. Frame this as a strategic success that directly impacts RF's ability to fund and fuel its war, boosting domestic morale and demonstrating UAF's long-range capabilities to international partners.
4. Proactively Counter RF "Nuclear Terrorism" Narrative: Task STRATCOM and diplomatic channels to immediately counter the RF narrative regarding the Smolensk NPP and Kharkiv "Neutron Source" facility. Highlight RF's history of reckless actions at ZNPP and frame their claims as a potential false flag preparation or an attempt to distract from their own war crimes.
5. Exploit and Reinforce Dobropillya Axis: Verify and commit forces to consolidate gains from the NEW tactical success at Shakhove and Volodymyrivka. Prepare for likely RF counter-attacks and exploit this success for local IO to boost morale and project UAF offensive capability.

//END REPORT//