1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) Russian forces have achieved a significant tactical breakthrough by securing a foothold in the Kanal microdistrict of Chasiv Yar, posing a CRITICAL threat to the city's defense. Simultaneously, enemy units have intensified pressure on the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk axis with a new advance towards Sokil. A major surge in electronic warfare (EW) activity in the Kharkiv sector indicates preparations for renewed offensive operations in the north.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS (24-HR PERIOD)

• NEW: Foothold Established in Chasiv Yar. Confirmed reports indicate Russian VDV elements have crossed the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal and secured positions within the eastern Kanal microdistrict. This escalates the situation from previous probing attacks to a confirmed ground presence inside the city's eastern boundary.
• NEW: Tactical Advance on Avdiivka-Pokrovsk Axis. Russian ground forces have advanced up to 1.5km towards the village of Sokil from positions near Ocheretyne, threatening a key Ukrainian Ground Line of Communication (GLOC).
• CHANGED: Increased Air-Delivered Munitions Tempo. The operational tempo of Russian FAB-500/1500 glide bomb employment has significantly increased along the entire Chasiv Yar axis, supporting the ground assault.
• CHANGED: Surge in Electronic Warfare Activity. A substantial increase (estimated 40%) in Russian EW emissions has been detected in the Kharkiv sector, primarily targeting Ukrainian reconnaissance UAVs and degrading ISR capabilities.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• THREAT LEVEL INCREASE (CHASIV YAR): Threat level for Chasiv Yar is elevated from SERIOUS to CRITICAL. The enemy's foothold in Kanal provides a direct fire-control position over central parts of the city and key supply routes, threatening to unhinge the main defensive line.
• THREAT LEVEL INCREASE (POKROVSK DIRECTION): Threat level for the Pokrovsk operational direction is elevated to SERIOUS. The advance on Sokil compromises Ukrainian defensive positions west of Ocheretyne and directly threatens a vital GLOC.
• EMERGING RISK (KHARKIV SECTOR) (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The intensified EW environment severely degrades friendly ISR capabilities, increasing the probability of a surprise ground assault. The deployment of advanced Shipovnik-Aero EW systems is assessed as highly likely and consistent with preparations for offensive action.
• NEW CAPABILITY (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): SIGINT suggests the operational deployment of a new Lancet loitering munition variant featuring enhanced thermal optics. This development could increase the effectiveness of Russian night-time operations against Ukrainian armored assets.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Chasiv Yar Axis: VDV elements, assessed as being from the 98th Guards Airborne Division, spearheaded the assault across the canal into the Kanal microdistrict. The operation was heavily supported by preparatory fires from artillery and extensive use of glide bombs to suppress Ukrainian defensive positions.
• Avdiivka-Pokrovsk Axis: Following a period of consolidation, elements of the 30th Motor Rifle Brigade initiated a renewed assault from the Ocheretyne area. These forces engaged Ukrainian units of the 47th Mechanized Brigade, achieving a tactical advance towards Sokil.
• Kharkiv Axis: No significant ground assaults have been reported in the last 24 hours. However, the surge in EW activity, coupled with satellite imagery showing increased logistical movements near the international border, are strong indicators of preparations for future offensive operations.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• What is the exact strength, composition, and disposition of the Russian force that has established a foothold in the Kanal microdistrict of Chasiv Yar?
• What is the status of Ukrainian defensive fortifications immediately west of Kanal, and what is their capacity to contain a further Russian advance?
• What is the primary objective of the Russian advance towards Sokil? Is it a limited tactical gain to secure high ground, or the initial phase of a larger operation towards Pokrovsk?
• What are the precise locations, types, and operational range of the newly active EW systems in the Kharkiv sector?

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• (CHASIV YAR AXIS) (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): The enemy will prioritize reinforcing and expanding their foothold in the Kanal microdistrict. Expect attempts to interdict Ukrainian supply routes into the main part of Chasiv Yar with direct and indirect fire. A secondary push from the south, near Klishchiivka, is a possible supporting operation to fix Ukrainian reserves.
• (AVDIIVKA-POKROVSK AXIS) (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Russian forces will continue to press their attack towards Sokil to further compromise Ukrainian defensive lines west of Avdiivka and exploit their recent gains from Ocheretyne.
• (KHARKIV AXIS) (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The current EW activity is assessed as a precursor to renewed ground assaults within the next 48-72 hours. The objective is likely to fix Ukrainian forces in the north and stretch defensive resources across the front.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

• Priority 1: Immediately re-task all available ISR assets (UAV, satellite) to the Kanal microdistrict in Chasiv Yar to determine enemy strength, disposition, and intent.
• Priority 2: Task artillery, mortar, and FPV drone units to conduct immediate suppression missions against confirmed Russian positions in Kanal to disrupt consolidation and prevent further advance.
• Priority 3: Allocate SIGINT collection assets to the Kharkiv sector to identify, locate, and classify high-value EW emitters for kinetic targeting.
• Priority 4: Reinforce defensive positions around Sokil and prepare localized counter-attack plans to halt the Russian advance and stabilize the FLOT.