1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Russian forces have initiated a new, multi-pronged ground offensive into northern Kharkiv Oblast, successfully achieving limited tactical gains and forcing the commitment of Ukrainian reserves. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). This offensive is supported by intensified electronic warfare (EW) and persistent aerial bombardment, indicating a well-resourced operation. Concurrently, enemy forces continue preparations for a large-scale assault on Chasiv Yar, with new evidence of logistical and ammunition stockpiling. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH).

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS

• Shift in Posture (Kharkiv): Enemy activity has escalated from shaping operations and cross-border raids to a deliberate, combined arms offensive along two primary axes toward Lyptsi and Vovchansk. This represents a significant change from the static posture of the previous 72 hours.
• EW Capability (Kharkiv): The confirmed deployment and effective use of advanced Pole-21 EW systems in the Kharkiv AO is a new development, presenting a significantly elevated threat to our ISR and strike UAV capabilities.
• Logistical Posture (Chasiv Yar): New IMINT confirms a substantial increase in ammunition and supply depots in the Bakhmut operational rear, a marked change from previous observations of routine sustainment activity.
• Force Disposition (Kharkiv): The identification of elements from the newly formed 44th Army Corps (Leningrad Military District) leading the assault is a new intelligence data point, confirming the commitment of fresh, albeit untested, formations to this axis.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• Threat Level Change: The operational threat level for the Kharkiv Defense Sector is elevated from SUBSTANTIAL to SEVERE.
• New Enemy Capabilities:
  • EW: Confirmed deployment of Pole-21 systems capable of wide-area GPS jamming. This directly degrades the effectiveness of our precision munitions and UAV reconnaissance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • Aerial Delivered Munitions: Increased use of UMPK glide bombs against frontline positions and rear areas in Kharkiv Oblast, enabling standoff strikes beyond the range of many of our short-range air defense (SHORAD) systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Emerging Risks:
  • Tactical Encirclement: The twin axes of advance toward Lyptsi and Vovchansk pose a risk of creating a salient that could be exploited to envelop forward-deployed Ukrainian units.
  • Fixing of Reserves: The Kharkiv offensive is assessed with medium confidence to be an operational-level fixing action, designed to draw Ukrainian strategic reserves away from the Donbas, thereby creating favorable conditions for the main effort against Chasiv Yar.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• NORTHERN AXIS (KHARKIV OBLAST):

  • 061100Z: Following intense artillery and aerial bombardment, Russian ground forces, identified as elements of the 44th Army Corps, crossed the international border.
  • Vovchansk Axis: Enemy forces have reportedly secured positions within the outlying settlements of Strilecha, Krasne, Pylna, and Borysivka. The primary objective appears to be the seizure of the city of Vovchansk to establish a forward operating base. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
  • Lyptsi Axis: Probing attacks are ongoing toward the town of Lyptsi. The enemy's intent is likely to push Ukrainian artillery out of range of Belgorod and create a buffer zone.
  • EW/UAV Environment: Heavy GPS jamming is reported across the northern Kharkiv front, resulting in a notable increase in UAV losses, particularly for reconnaissance models lacking advanced anti-jamming capabilities.

• EASTERN AXIS (CHASIV YAR):

  • Ground Activity: No significant ground assaults were reported in the last 24 hours. Activity was limited to platoon-sized probes against the Ivanivske-Klishchiivka line, which were repelled. This operational pause is consistent with final preparations for a larger attack.
  • Logistics & Fires: IMINT and SIGINT indicate a significant logistical build-up, including the establishment of at least three new ammunition depots within 15km of the Bakhmut frontline. Artillery and rocket fire have remained steady, focusing on degrading Ukrainian defensive fortifications in the "Canal" microdistrict of Chasiv Yar.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• Enemy Intent: The primary intelligence gap is determining whether the Kharkiv offensive is the main summer effort or an economy-of-force operation to fix Ukrainian reserves. The ultimate size and objective of the force committed remain unclear.
• Reserve Forces: The location and composition of the Russian 2nd echelon forces behind the 44th Army Corps are currently unknown. Identifying these reserves is critical for predicting the potential depth of the Kharkiv operation.
• C2 Structure: The command relationship between the Leningrad Military District forces in Kharkiv and the main grouping of forces in the Donbas is not yet fully understood.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (24-48 HOUR FORECAST)

• Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will attempt to consolidate gains in northern Kharkiv Oblast, focusing on capturing Vovchansk and expanding the buffer zone. They will leverage fire superiority and EW to attrit responding Ukrainian reserves. In the East, they will continue intense shaping operations ahead of a major ground assault on Chasiv Yar, likely to commence within 48-72 hours. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH)
• Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): The Kharkiv offensive is a successful feint, drawing Ukrainian strategic reserves north. The enemy then launches the main effort not at Chasiv Yar, but on an entirely different axis (e.g., toward Pokrovsk or Sumy), seeking a major operational breakthrough against a thinned-out defensive line. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. ISR Tasking: Prioritize ISR assets (UAV, SIGINT, SATINT) to identify 2nd echelon forces and command posts behind the Kharkiv front. Focus collection on the Belgorod-Shebekino logistical corridor.
2. Force Allocation: Recommend the immediate forward deployment of specialized counter-EW teams to the Kharkiv sector to mitigate the impact of Pole-21 systems and provide updated TTPs to UAV units.
3. Deep Strike Targeting: Immediately nominate the newly identified ammunition depots in the Bakhmut rear area for deep strike by long-range precision fires (HIMARS/ATACMS).
4. Contingency Planning: Direct operational staffs to wargame the MDCOA to ensure contingency plans and triggers for reserve reallocation are in place should the main enemy effort manifest elsewhere.

//END OF REPORT//