1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Russian forces have significantly altered tactics on the Avdiivka axis, now employing heavy FAB-500 glide bombs to precede ground assaults, increasing pressure on forward defensive positions. Concurrently, an anomalous and significant decrease in artillery fire in the Zaporizhzhia sector near Robotyne suggests a possible enemy repositioning or preparation for a local offensive action. The confirmed deployment of new "Pole-21" Electronic Warfare (EW) systems poses an increased threat to our drone and precision-guided munitions capabilities.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS

• Tactical Shift (Avdiivka): (NEW) Russian forces have transitioned from attrition-based infantry assaults to combined arms operations led by heavy aerial bombardment with glide bombs. This is a major change from the previous 72-hour reporting period.
• Artillery Posture (Zaporizhzhia): (CHANGED) A significant, uncharacteristic reduction in Russian artillery fire (est. 60-70%) is observed near Robotyne. This contrasts sharply with the consistent, high-volume fires reported previously.
• EW Threat: (NEW CAPABILITY) The "Pole-21" EW system has been identified in theater. Previous reports noted general GPS jamming; this provides specific intelligence on a new system being deployed to counter Ukrainian drones and precision munitions.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• Aerial Bombardment: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The use of FAB-500 glide bombs on the Avdiivka front represents the most immediate and severe threat to fortified positions. The standoff delivery method of these weapons places them beyond the reach of most forward-deployed air defense systems.
• Electronic Warfare: (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) The deployment of Pole-21 systems indicates a focused effort to degrade Ukrainian ISR and strike capabilities. The primary risk is the jamming of GPS signals for UAVs and precision-guided munitions (e.g., HIMARS, Excalibur), potentially reducing their effectiveness significantly.
• Local Offensive Action: (LOW-TO-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) The artillery lull in Zaporizhzhia, while its cause is unconfirmed, presents an emerging risk. It could be masking preparations for a local counter-attack intended to regain tactical initiative around the Robotyne salient.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Avdiivka Axis: (CONFIRMED) Multiple strikes using FAB-500 glide bombs were recorded against Ukrainian strongpoints over the last 24 hours. These were followed by platoon-to-company sized mechanized infantry probes, which were largely repelled but at a higher cost to defensive preparations.
• Bakhmut Axis: (CONFIRMED) Ukrainian forces of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade successfully repelled a company-sized Russian mechanized assault south of Bakhmut. Verified enemy losses include at least 3x BMPs and 1x T-72. This action indicates continued, albeit unsuccessful, Russian attempts to regain lost ground in this sector.
• Zaporizhzhia Axis (Robotyne): (ANALYTICAL JUDGEMENT) The observed reduction in artillery fire is not correlated with any observed decrease in enemy force presence or logistics activity. This deviation from established enemy TTPs (Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures) is a significant indicator of a potential change in enemy intent.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• Primary Gap: What is the specific enemy intent behind the artillery fire reduction in the Zaporizhzhia sector? Determine if this is a logistics failure, deliberate repositioning, a deception operation, or preparation for an imminent attack.
• What is the effective range, specific jamming profile, and density of deployment for the new Pole-21 EW systems?
• What is the current inventory and daily launch rate capability of Russian air-launched glide bombs available on the eastern front?

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• Most Likely Course of Action (COA): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Russian forces will sustain and likely intensify the use of glide bombs to degrade defenses around Avdiivka, followed by continued ground assaults to fix Ukrainian units and exploit any created weaknesses.
• Most Dangerous Course of Action (COA): (LOW-TO-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) The artillery lull in Zaporizhzhia is a deliberate tactic to achieve operational surprise. A coordinated local offensive, potentially involving mechanized reserves, could be launched within 48 hours to target Ukrainian positions in the Robotyne salient.
• Overall: Expect continued and broader deployment of advanced EW systems across the front to degrade Ukrainian Command and Control (C2), ISR, and precision strike capabilities.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Re-task ISR: Immediately prioritize all available ISR assets (UAV, SIGINT, and satellite) to the Robotyne sector to determine the cause of the artillery lull and identify any enemy force concentrations, command post relocations, or logistical preparations for an attack.
2. Disseminate Threat Intelligence: Issue an updated threat advisory to all drone and artillery units regarding the Pole-21 EW system, specifically highlighting the risk to GPS-dependent systems. Task TECHINT for analysis of any recovered system components.
3. Enhance Air Defense Posture: Increase allocation of SHORAD and MANPADS to units on the Avdiivka axis to create a layered defense against the glide bomb threat. All forward units should immediately review and practice dispersal and camouflage procedures.
4. Increase Alert Status: Place reconnaissance and front-line units in the Zaporizhzhia sector on high alert for indicators of an imminent ground assault. Review local counter-attack plans.

END REPORT