1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Russian forces have opened a new offensive axis in northern Kharkiv Oblast, seizing several border settlements in a major cross-border assault. This operation is assessed (HIGH CONFIDENCE) as an effort to fix Ukrainian reserves and create a "buffer zone," forcing a reallocation of forces from the Donbas. Concurrently, enemy forces have intensified mechanized assaults west of Avdiivka, achieving further tactical gains near Ocheretyne with the use of thermobaric systems.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• NEW OFFENSIVE AXIS (KHARKIIV): A significant change from the previous 24 hours. Russian forces initiated a cross-border assault into Kharkiv Oblast, opening a new major front.
• INTENSIFIED ASSAULTS (AVDIIVKA FRONT): Enemy operations west of Avdiivka have escalated from probing attacks to coordinated mechanized assaults, involving division-level assets and heavy thermobaric fire support.
• SHIFT IN MOMENTUM (CHASIV YAR): In contrast to previous reports of gradual Russian advances, the FLOT in Chasiv Yar has stabilized in the last 24 hours despite continued heavy fighting, indicating a possible tactical pause or successful Ukrainian defense.
• NEW EW CAPABILITY (SOUTHERN AXIS): A previously unobserved variant of the 'Pole-21' EW system has been detected and employed on the Zaporizhzhia front, specifically targeting Ukrainian drone operations.
• CONFIRMED LOGISTICAL BUILDUP: IMINT has confirmed a significant logistical buildup (fuel, ammunition, engineering assets) in the Belgorod Oblast, directly supporting the new Kharkiv offensive.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• STRATEGIC THREAT: The opening of the Kharkiv front presents the most significant new threat, designed to stretch Ukrainian defenses and draw strategic reserves away from critical sectors in the Donbas. Threat Level: HIGH.
• GROUND THREAT: The increased use of TOS-1A thermobaric systems in the Ocheretyne sector poses a severe threat to fortified Ukrainian positions, increasing the risk of localized breakthroughs. Threat Level: HIGH.
• ELECTRONIC WARFARE THREAT: The new 'Pole-21' variant on the Southern Axis significantly increases the risk of disruption to Ukrainian C2 and ISR drone operations, degrading tactical situational awareness. Threat Level: MEDIUM-HIGH.
• AIR/FIRES THREAT: The threat from tactical aviation employing glide bombs (KAB/FAB) remains HIGH across all axes, continuing to be the primary enabler for Russian ground assaults.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• KHARKIIV AXIS (NEW): Elements of the newly designated "North" Group of Forces conducted a multi-pronged cross-border assault, capturing several villages including Strilecha, Pylna, and Borysivka. The main effort appears directed towards the town of Vovchansk to establish a significant foothold and pressure Ukrainian supply lines.
• AVDIIVKA / OCHERETYNE AXIS: Russia’s 30th Motor Rifle Brigade, supported by elements of the 90th Tank Division, has intensified its push west of Ocheretyne, achieving minor tactical gains. The 47th Mechanized Brigade is engaged in heavy defensive fighting, reporting significant enemy attrition but facing overwhelming fire support, including TOS-1A systems.
• BAKHMUT / CHASIV YAR AXIS: Heavy, attritional fighting continues in the Kanal district of Chasiv Yar. Despite constant pressure from the 98th VDV Division using small infantry assault groups supported by intense artillery, no significant changes to the FLOT have been confirmed in the past 24 hours.
• SOUTHERN / ZAPORIZHZHIA AXIS: The frontline near Robotyne remains relatively stable. The most significant development is the increased and more sophisticated EW activity, with the 'Pole-21' variant causing notable disruption to Ukrainian reconnaissance drone sorties.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• What is the full order of battle, composition, and ultimate objective of the Russian "North" Group of Forces? Is the Vovchansk operation the main effort, or a feint for a larger push?
• What is the strength and disposition of the Russian second-echelon forces positioned behind the Ocheretyne salient?
• What are the specific technical capabilities, vulnerabilities, and effective range of the new 'Pole-21' EW variant?

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MOST LIKELY COA: Russian forces will prioritize the Kharkiv axis, attempting to seize Vovchansk and expand their zone of control to force the commitment of Ukrainian strategic reserves. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• SECOND MOST LIKELY COA: The enemy will continue to press assaults west of Ocheretyne to widen the shoulders of the salient, threatening key Ukrainian logistical routes toward Pokrovsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• THIRD MOST LIKELY COA: Enemy forces at Chasiv Yar will likely conduct a brief regrouping and replenishment before resuming concentrated assaults on the Kanal district, preceded by intense air and artillery bombardment. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. ISR TASKING: Immediately task all available ISR assets (UAV, SIGINT, IMINT) to the Belgorod-Kharkiv border area to identify follow-on forces, command posts, and logistical nodes supporting the "North" Group of Forces.
2. FORCE REALLOCATION: Recommend the immediate deployment of tactical reserves to reinforce the Vovchansk axis to slow the enemy advance, establish new defensive lines, and prevent a rapid operational breakthrough.
3. COUNTER-EW: Disseminate all available technical intelligence on the new 'Pole-21' variant to frontline EW and drone units on the Southern Axis. Direct units to adjust TTPs, including flight paths and frequency hopping protocols, to mitigate its effects.
4. DEEP STRIKE TARGETING: Prioritize long-range precision fires against identified TOS-1A systems near Ocheretyne and the confirmed logistical buildup in the Valuyki area (Belgorod Oblast) to disrupt current and future offensive operations.