INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY: 111400Z SEP 25

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW intelligence confirms RF forces have opened a new axis of advance in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, claiming the "liberation" of Sosnovka with the stated intent to encircle UAF forces in Velykomykhailivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The NATO airspace violation crisis has deepened, with at least 15 drones found in Poland, incursions confirmed into Lithuania, and the subsequent indefinite closure of airspace by Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania along their borders with Belarus/RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW intelligence confirms the loss of a UAF Su-27 aircraft and its pilot during a combat mission in the Zaporizhzhia direction.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS

• Ground Combat Focus (CRITICAL - NEW AXIS): The previous report focused on the exploitation of the Pokrovsk breakthrough. The most significant NEW development is the confirmed RF advance in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with the claimed capture of Sosnovka. This opens a new front and presents a tactical threat of encirclement to UAF units, a major change in battlefield geometry.
• Air Campaign Scale (DECREASED): The air threat has de-escalated from the previous period's unprecedented massed strike of 458 targets. The latest wave involved 66 UAVs, indicating a shift from an overwhelming saturation attack to a more sustained, high-volume pressure campaign.
• NATO Airspace Violation (ESCALATED CRISIS): The situation has evolved from an initial incursion into a multi-national crisis. NEW developments include: confirmation of drones also entering Lithuanian airspace; Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania indefinitely closing airspace along their borders; and Poland announcing the closure of all remaining road and rail border crossings with Belarus from 12 SEP 25. The number of drones found in Poland is confirmed at 15.
• UAF Air Force Posture (NEW LOSS): The previous report noted no specific UAF air losses. NEW intelligence confirms the combat loss of a UAF Su-27 fighter jet and its pilot, Major Oleksandr Borovyk, in the Zaporizhzhia direction. RF has claimed responsibility for the shootdown.
• UAF Naval Operations (NEW SUCCESS): The previous report contained no new naval developments. NEW intelligence from HUR confirms a successful UAF strike that disabled an RF Black Sea Fleet Project MPSV07 vessel near Novorossiysk.
• RF IO Vulnerability (NEW OPPORTUNITY): The previous report identified RF military misconduct as a vulnerability. A NEW and potent IO opportunity has emerged with video evidence of the neglected graves of three RF brothers killed in the war, which can be used to undermine RF morale and expose the state's disregard for its soldiers.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• UAF Ground Forces - Dnipropetrovsk/Velykomykhailivka Axis (THREAT LEVEL: SEVERE - NEW): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) A NEW and SEVERE threat has emerged with the RF advance on Sosnovka. RF "Vostok" Grouping has demonstrated the capability to open a new axis and now poses a credible threat of tactical encirclement to UAF forces in the Velykomykhailivka area.
• NATO Eastern Flank & UAF Logistics (THREAT LEVEL: SEVERE - EVOLVED): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The threat remains SEVERE but has evolved. The risk is no longer just of probing but of a sustained hybrid campaign, confirmed by multi-national airspace incursions (POL, LTU) and reactive airspace/border closures. This poses a direct threat to UAF logistics flowing through Poland and creates a high risk of miscalculation or unintended escalation.
• UAF Air Assets - Southern Front (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH - INCREASED): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The threat level to UAF air assets in the south has increased. The NEW confirmed loss of an Su-27 in the Zaporizhzhia direction indicates an effective and lethal RF integrated air defense system (IADS) or air-to-air capability in this sector that poses a significant risk to UAF air operations.
• UAF Ground Forces - Pokrovsk Axis (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - PERSISTING): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The threat remains CRITICAL. While no new breakthroughs were reported, RF continues to commit forces to urban combat within Pokrovsk, indicating a persistent and immediate risk to the city's stability and the integrity of the defensive line.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Air Warfare / Hybrid Operations:
  • RF Strike (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF executed a UAV-centric strike. UAF reports 62 of 66 enemy UAV targets shot down/suppressed. This represents a significant decrease in volume from the previous period's massed strike. Guided aerial bomb (KAB) launches persist against Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts.
  • NATO Airspace Incursion (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The crisis continues to unfold. NEW intelligence confirms at least 15 RF drones have been found in Poland, and incursions also occurred in Lithuanian airspace. In response, Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania have closed border airspace indefinitely. NEW: Poland will close all remaining road and rail border crossings with Belarus from 12 SEP 25. Diplomatic fallout continues with the Netherlands summoning the Russian ambassador.
• Ground Warfare:
  • Dnipropetrovsk Axis (HIGH CONFIDENCE): NEW RF forces have captured Sosnovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF sources state the tactical objective is to support the encirclement of UAF forces in Velykomykhailivka.
  • Pokrovsk Axis (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF continues to exploit its previous breakthrough, with urban combat ongoing in Pokrovsk city. Combat tempo remains high.
  • Lyman Axis (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): RF claims of assaulting Zarechnoye and capturing Zelenyi Hai indicate an increased tempo and offensive intent on this axis, but require further verification.
  • UAF Air Force Loss (HIGH CONFIDENCE): A UAF Su-27 crashed during a combat mission in the Zaporizhzhia direction. The pilot, Major Oleksandr Borovyk, was killed in action.
• Naval Warfare:
  • UAF Strike (HIGH CONFIDENCE): NEW reports from Ukrainian HUR confirm a successful strike that has disabled an RF Black Sea Fleet multi-purpose rescue vessel (Project MPSV07) near Novorossiysk.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the BDA of the RF capture of Sosnovka? What is the strength, composition, and posture of UAF units now threatened with encirclement at Velykomykhailivka?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What specific RF air defense system or air-to-air asset was responsible for the downing of the UAF Su-27 in the Zaporizhzhia direction? What is the operational impact on UAF air superiority in this sector?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the damage assessment and long-term operational impact of the HUR strike on the RF Black Sea Fleet Project MPSV07 vessel? How does this affect RF maritime logistics and salvage capabilities?
• HIGH (PERSISTING): What are NATO's specific military Rules of Engagement (ROE) and force posture changes following the airspace/border closures?
• CRITICAL (PERSISTING): What is the BDA of the 10 SEP massed RF strikes on Ukrainian DIB facilities in Lviv and western Ukraine?

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MOST LIKELY COA (RF GROUND): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF main effort will likely be twofold: 1) continue the exploitation into Pokrovsk urban areas, and 2) commit forces to consolidate and expand the NEW salient at Sosnovka, attempting to pressure UAF forces at Velykomykhailivka. High-tempo probing attacks will continue across other axes (Lyman, Kupiansk) to fix UAF reserves.
• MOST LIKELY COA (RF AIR): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF will likely continue high-volume UAV strikes (50-100 per wave) to maintain pressure on UAF air defenses and target infrastructure, but is unlikely to mount another 400+ target massed strike in this period. Further probing of NATO airspace is likely, but with smaller groups of UAVs to gauge the newly coordinated allied air defense posture.
• MOST LIKELY COA (RF IO): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will aggressively promote the "liberation" of Sosnovka to project success and amplify claims of downing the UAF Su-27. Simultaneously, RF state media will deny intent for the NATO airspace violations while milbloggers mock the allied response and leverage any perceived disunity (e.g., Slovak FM statements) to weaken NATO cohesion.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize ISR on Dnipropetrovsk Salient: Immediately re-task all-source ISR (IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT) to the Sosnovka-Velykomykhailivka axis. The priority intelligence requirement is to identify RF force composition, strength, second-echelon reserves, and axes of advance to enable pre-emptive strikes against this NEW encirclement threat.
2. Conduct SEAD Review for Zaporizhzhia Direction: Immediately task UAF Air Force and G2 to conduct a post-action review of the Su-27 loss. Identify the threat system responsible and adjust UAF flight operations, electronic warfare tactics, and Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) planning for all air missions in this sector.
3. Launch Targeted PSYOP on RF Neglect of Soldiers: Immediately task PSYOP elements to weaponize the NEW video of neglected RF soldiers' graves. Create and disseminate information products across Russian-language social media and target specific RF military formations to degrade morale, sow distrust in command, and highlight the Kremlin's disregard for its personnel.
4. Amplify Naval Success to Boost Morale: Task STRATCOM to immediately amplify the successful UAF strike on the RF Black Sea Fleet vessel. Publicize this victory to bolster domestic and military morale, counter RF narratives of success, and demonstrate UAF's continued asymmetric naval capability.
5. Coordinate with NATO on Border Closure Implications: Immediately establish liaison with Polish, Lithuanian, and Latvian counterparts to understand the full operational and logistical impact of the NEW comprehensive border closures with Belarus. Deconflict any cross-border UAF operations and coordinate intelligence on RF/Belarusian reactions.

//END REPORT//