1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Russian (RU) forces are concentrating combat power for a major assault on Chasiv Yar, supported by a significant and effective increase in Electronic Warfare (EW) capabilities that are degrading Ukrainian (UA) Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) effectiveness. Concurrently, RU forces west of Avdiivka have transitioned from offensive operations to a defensive, consolidating posture, focusing on fortification. A major RU armored assault near Vuhledar was decisively defeated, indicating significant tactical-level failures in RU combined arms coordination.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS

• RU Electronic Warfare Posture: (NEW) There has been a significant intensification of RU EW activity, particularly on the Chasiv Yar axis. This is a qualitative change, actively disrupting UA UAS reconnaissance and FPV drone operations, representing the most significant new threat development in the last 24 hours.
• RU Posture West of Avdiivka: (CHANGED) RU forces have culminated their recent offensive push west of Avdiivka. They have transitioned from offensive probing to consolidating gains and establishing defensive fortifications around Ocheretyne, indicating an operational pause.
• RU Armored Operations (Vuhledar): (NEW) A large-scale RU armored assault near Vuhledar was decisively repelled. This is a notable event, as previous activity in this sector was limited to smaller-scale probes. The scale of the failure points to persistent RU tactical deficiencies.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• Electronic Warfare (EW): (INCREASED) The threat to UA UAS operations, particularly FPV drones and reconnaissance platforms, is now assessed as HIGH along the Chasiv Yar axis. The effectiveness of the new RU systems requires immediate counter-tactics.
• Air-Delivered Munitions: (UNCHANGED) The threat from FAB/KAB glide bombs remains HIGH across the entire front, with RU tactical aviation continuing to exploit localized air superiority to strike UA defensive positions and logistical nodes.
• Ground Assault Formations: (CHANGED) RU forces continue to adapt, employing smaller, more agile assault groups for localized attacks (Chasiv Yar). However, the Vuhledar failure demonstrates a critical vulnerability and lack of coordination in larger, brigade-level mechanized assaults, which can be exploited. Confidence: HIGH.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Chasiv Yar Axis: (SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY) Elements of the 98th VDV Division are confirmed to be regrouping and preparing for a large-scale assault on Chasiv Yar. This is being preceded by intense artillery preparation and the aforementioned EW suppression of UA assets.
• Avdiivka Axis: (CONSOLIDATION) Following recent gains, RU forces are digging in west of Avdiivka (vicinity of Ocheretyne, Novobakhmutivka). Engineering and fortification activities have been observed, consistent with a planned operational pause to reconstitute forces and defend against potential UA counter-attacks.
• Vuhledar Axis: (FAILED ASSAULT) A significant RU armored assault was decisively repelled by UA forces. Confirmed RU losses are between 12-15 armored vehicles (T-72/T-80 tanks, BMP fighting vehicles). The assault column demonstrated poor coordination and failed to suppress UA anti-tank positions. Confidence: HIGH.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• EW Systems: What are the specific types, capabilities, and ranges of the new RU EW systems deployed near Chasiv Yar?
• RU Logistics (Chasiv Yar): What is the readiness level of RU logistics (ammunition, fuel, personnel replacements) supporting the anticipated Chasiv Yar offensive?
• Vuhledar Failure Analysis: What were the primary causes of the RU failure at Vuhledar? (e.g., leadership, planning, intelligence, UA tactics).
• Unit Morale: What is the current combat readiness and morale of the RU units that sustained heavy losses near Vuhledar?

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (24-48 HOURS)

• Chasiv Yar Axis: A concerted RU ground assault on Chasiv Yar is likely to commence within the next 48 hours. This will likely be preceded by intensified air and artillery bombardment targeting UA command and control and forward defensive lines. Confidence: HIGH.
• Avdiivka Axis: RU forces will likely remain in a defensive posture, focusing on improving fortifications and repelling any UA counter-attacks. Offensive operations are unlikely in this sector as units reconstitute. Confidence: MEDIUM.
• Vuhledar Axis: Further large-scale RU armored assaults are unlikely in the immediate term due to significant materiel and personnel losses. RU forces may conduct limited probing attacks with dismounted infantry to test UA defenses. Confidence: HIGH.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

• Counter-EW: Prioritize SIGINT/ISR assets to identify, locate, and target the new RU EW systems on the Chasiv Yar axis. Task long-range precision fires against confirmed EW emitters.
• Exploit RU Pause: Target the nascent RU fortifications and logistical lines west of Avdiivka with HIMARS/GMLRS and artillery to disrupt their consolidation efforts and inflict casualties during their operational pause.
• Information Operations (IO): Immediately disseminate imagery and details of the failed RU assault at Vuhledar via IO channels to degrade enemy morale and highlight UA defensive strength.
• Defensive Preparation: Pre-position mobile ATGM teams and reinforce minefields along the most likely avenues of armored approach towards Chasiv Yar to attrit the anticipated RU assault force.