1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) The operational situation has critically deteriorated in the Kupyansk direction, with Russian Federation (RF) forces claiming control of approximately half the city, a claim UAF denies, creating an urgent and contested intelligence picture. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Concurrently, RF has expanded its deep strike campaign with a NEW strategic focus on degrading the Ukrainian defense industrial base, claiming a successful strike against a UAV/Artillery electronics enterprise in Khmelnytskyi. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) In a significant tactical innovation, UAF has deployed a NEW company of ground robotic combat complexes with the 3rd Assault Brigade.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS

• Kupyansk Axis (SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION/NEW CONTESTED ZONE): The situation in Kupyansk has escalated from a secondary effort to a primary point of contention. NEW RF sources claim control of "about half" of the city. This directly contradicts UAF reports that an RF infiltration group was contained and blocked. This represents a NEW and critical operational challenge requiring immediate verification.
• RF Deep Strike Targeting (NEW STRATEGIC FOCUS): RF has expanded its deep strike campaign beyond general infrastructure. NEW reporting indicates a deliberate focus on the Ukrainian defense industrial base, with a claimed strike on an enterprise manufacturing electronic systems for UAVs and artillery in Khmelnytskyi. This marks a significant shift in RF targeting priorities.
• UAF Tactical Innovation (NEW CAPABILITY DEPLOYED): The UAF 3rd Assault Brigade has fielded "NC13," a NEW company-sized element of strike ground robotic complexes. This is the first confirmed deployment of such a unit, representing a significant tactical innovation for UAF ground forces.
• RF Ground Gains – Donetsk Axis (NEW CLAIM): RF forces claim the NEW liberation of Kamyshevakha (Donetsk Oblast), reporting an advance to the border of Dnepropetrovsk Oblast. This claim, if confirmed, represents a successful localized RF offensive.
• RF Information Operations (NEW STRATEGIC MESSAGING): Vladimir Putin’s post-China visit press conference introduced NEW strategic narratives regarding negotiations. Key themes include questioning President Zelenskyy's legitimacy, demanding referendums on occupied territories as a precondition for talks, and an open invitation for a meeting in Moscow. This constitutes a major new IO push.
• International Support for UAF (NEW COMMITMENTS): UAF has secured NEW agreements for additional air defense systems from Nordic and Baltic countries. Concurrently, NEW reports indicate the EU intends to increase military spending by €2 trillion by 2031, signaling long-term strategic support.
• Sieversk Axis (STATUS CHANGE): While still a main effort for RF forces, the threat of encirclement at Sieversk is now a SUSTAINED pressure point rather than a new development, with the Kupyansk situation representing the most dynamic change in the last 24 hours.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• UAF Ground Forces – Kupyansk Axis (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - NEW): (LOW CONFIDENCE on RF control; HIGH CONFIDENCE on RF intent). The contested situation in Kupyansk presents a CRITICAL and immediate threat. A successful RF seizure would severely compromise UAF logistics, command and control, and defensive lines in Kharkiv Oblast, enabling further RF advances westward.
• UAF Defense Industrial Base (THREAT LEVEL: SEVERE - NEW): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on strike BDA; HIGH CONFIDENCE on RF intent). The claimed strike on the Khmelnytskyi electronics facility elevates the threat to Ukraine's domestic production capabilities to SEVERE. Systematically degrading UAF's ability to self-sustain, particularly in drone and artillery component manufacturing, is a key RF strategic objective.
• UAF High-Value Assets (THREAT LEVEL: SEVERE - NEWLY DEMONSTRATED CAPABILITY): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on specific hit; HIGH CONFIDENCE on RF capability). The claimed Lancet loitering munition strike on a UAF radar from over 60km, if confirmed, demonstrates a SEVERE and evolving threat to high-value assets (IAMD, C2, EW) located deep behind the Forward Line of Own Troops (FLOT).
• UAF Ground Forces – Sieversk Axis (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - SUSTAINED): The threat of an operational encirclement remains CRITICAL. The continued commitment of the RF 3rd Shock Army indicates this is a sustained, high-priority objective.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Air Warfare:
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF has expanded its use of Guided Aerial Bombs (КАБ) to targets in Donetsk Oblast.
  • (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF sources claim a successful strike on an enterprise manufacturing electronics for UAF UAVs and artillery in Khmelnytskyi. BDA is pending.
  • (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF sources claim a Lancet loitering munition successfully struck a UAF radar at a range exceeding 60km.
• Ground Warfare:
  • Kupyansk Axis: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Situation is highly contested. RF sources, with supporting drone footage, claim control of approximately half the city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF command refutes this claim, stating an RF infiltration group that entered for a photo opportunity has been blocked on the northwestern outskirts.
  • Donetsk Axis (Kamyshevakha): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF MoD claims the liberation of Kamyshevakha and that its forces have reached the administrative border of Dnepropetrovsk Oblast. UAF confirmation is pending.
  • Sieversk Axis: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF continues to exert intense offensive pressure, with combat footage confirming ongoing operations by the 3rd Shock Army.
  • UAF Tactical Developments: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The UAF 3rd Assault Brigade announced the creation and deployment of the "NC13" company, a unit equipped with strike ground robotic complexes for combat, evacuation, and logistics missions.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the definitive ground truth regarding control of key terrain within the city of Kupyansk? Is the main bridge intact? What is the disposition of RF versus UAF forces?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the claimed RF strike on the UAV/artillery electronics facility in Khmelnytskyi? What is the resulting impact on UAF production capacity?
• HIGH (NEW): Is the RF claim of liberating Kamyshevakha accurate? If so, what is the disposition of RF forces on the Dnepropetrovsk Oblast border?
• HIGH (NEW): BDA for the claimed Lancet strike on UAF radar. Was the target an operational radar system? What type?
• HIGH (PERSISTING): What is the status of UAF forces in the Sieversk salient? Assess RF progress towards operational encirclement.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MOST LIKELY COA (RF GROUND): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will commit its main effort to seizing full control of Kupyansk, escalating urban combat and attempting to interdict UAF reinforcements. Pressure on the Sieversk salient will be maintained to fix UAF forces. RF will attempt to exploit any success at Kamyshevakha by conducting reconnaissance-in-force toward Dnepropetrovsk Oblast. RF IO will saturate the information space with claims of victory in Kupyansk.
• MOST LIKELY COA (RF STRIKES): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will conduct follow-on strikes against other identified UAF defense industrial targets, prioritizing facilities related to drone manufacturing, electronics, and ammunition production. The use of КАБs and Lancet loitering munitions against tactical and operational-level targets will continue at a high tempo.
• MOST PROBABLE COA (UAF): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) UAF will prioritize the defense of Kupyansk, likely committing tactical reserves to stabilize the line and counter-attack RF assault groups within the city. UAF will likely deploy its new ground robotic systems in a combat role to gain operational experience and potentially achieve a tactical advantage. UAF will seek to accelerate the fielding of newly secured AD systems from partners.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize ISR for Kupyansk: Immediately re-task all available ISR assets (UAV, SIGINT, IMINT) to establish definitive ground truth within Kupyansk. Prepare dynamic targeting packages for long-range precision fires to interdict RF reinforcements and command posts supporting the urban assault.
2. Harden and Disperse DIB Assets: Immediately task J4 and SBU to conduct a threat assessment of all known DIB facilities, especially those related to electronics and drone production. Recommend immediate hardening, camouflage, and dispersal of critical manufacturing components and stockpiles. Task J2 to prioritize developing target packages of facilities RF may be targeting next.
3. Accelerate Deployment and Assessment of Ground Robotics: Task the 3rd Assault Brigade to operationally deploy the "NC13" ground robotic complexes. Establish clear criteria for assessing their effectiveness, survivability, and TTPs. Immediately capture and disseminate lessons learned across the force.
4. Counter Putin’s IO Narrative: Task STRATCOM to immediately develop and disseminate a robust counter-narrative to Putin's press conference statements. Emphasize Ukraine's unwavering position on sovereignty and rejection of coerced referendums, directly contrasting Putin's rhetoric with RF actions on the ground.
5. Fast-Track Integration of New AD Systems: Task Air Defense Command to accelerate planning for the integration of newly secured AD systems from Nordic/Baltic partners. Prioritize their future deployment to protect critical infrastructure and DIB facilities now under demonstrated threat.

//END REPORT//