1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Russian forces are conducting two converging, high-priority offensive operations. The primary effort is an intensified assault on Chasiv Yar, led by VDV elements and enabled by massed gliding bomb strikes, aiming to seize key terrain. Concurrently, a secondary but critical effort is exploiting a tactical vulnerability west of Avdiivka, with mechanized units pushing to secure a foothold in Ocheretyne, threatening to unhinge our defensive line in the sector.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Chasiv Yar Axis:
  • (NEW) Offensive Tempo: Significant increase in the tempo of offensive ground actions and preparatory fires against Chasiv Yar and its surrounding settlements.
  • (NEW) Force Composition: Confirmed presence of the 98th VDV Division as the lead assault element, indicating a high-priority operation.
  • (NEW) Aerial Bombardment: A marked escalation in the use of FAB/KAB gliding bombs targeting our forward positions and command posts in the Chasiv Yar area, particularly the 'Kanal' microdistrict.
• Avdiivka-Pokrovsk Axis:
  • (NEW) Tactical Advance: First visual confirmation (VISCONF) of Russian forces entering the southeastern outskirts of Ocheretyne, representing a significant tactical advance.
  • (NEW) Consolidation: Enemy forces have largely completed consolidation of gains in Berdychi and Semenivka, reorienting for further westward pushes.
• Supporting Operations:
  • (NEW) Artillery Posture: A notable increase in artillery fire density and logistics buildup observed south of Bakhmut, directly supporting the Chasiv Yar offensive.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• (HIGH) Aerial Gliding Bombs (FAB/KAB): This remains the most significant threat to our fortified positions, C2 nodes, and logistics hubs along the entire front, particularly concentrated on Chasiv Yar. The enemy is effectively using these munitions to degrade defenses prior to ground assaults.
• (HIGH) Tactical Breakthrough (Avdiivka-Pokrovsk Axis): The ongoing Russian advance towards Ocheretyne presents a high risk of a tactical-level breakthrough that could compromise the stability of our entire defensive line west of Avdiivka.
• (MEDIUM) Russian EW Systems: Enemy electronic warfare continues to pose a medium, but persistent, threat to our FPV drone and ISR drone operations, degrading our tactical situational awareness and strike capabilities.
• (MEDIUM) Loitering Munitions: The continued use of Lancet loitering munitions against our artillery and high-value targets behind the forward line of own troops (FLOT) remains a consistent threat, impacting our counter-battery effectiveness.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Chasiv Yar Axis:
  • Main Effort: The 98th VDV Division is spearheading assaults on the eastern edge of Chasiv Yar ('Kanal' microdistrict) and the adjacent settlement of Ivanivske.
  • Supporting Efforts: Attacks on Bohdanivka (north) and flanking pressure on Klishchiivka/Andriivka (south) have been largely repulsed but serve to fix our units in place and secure the flanks of the main assault. Fighting is characterized by small, VDV-led infantry assaults following intense aerial and artillery bombardment.
• Avdiivka-Pokrovsk Axis:
  • Main Effort: Russian mechanized infantry have successfully advanced from previously secured positions in Semenivka, establishing a foothold in Ocheretyne.
  • Objective: This axis of advance seeks to exploit a seam in our defenses and bypass heavily fortified areas, creating conditions for a wider encirclement of our forces still defending the Berdychi-Semenivka line.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• Force Composition at Ocheretyne: (CRITICAL) The specific composition, strength, and objective of the Russian grouping currently exploiting the advance into Ocheretyne.
• Reserve Allocation: The location and readiness of Russian operational reserves designated for either the Chasiv Yar or Avdiivka-Pokrovsk axes. Determining which axis is postured to receive reinforcements is critical.
• Command & Control: Precise locations of Russian forward command posts (CPs) and fire-control centers directing the Chasiv Yar assault and coordinating FAB/KAB strikes.
• Future Operations: Enemy intent and timeline for a potential renewal of offensive operations in the Lyman sector.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (ENEMY COURSE OF ACTION)

• COA 1 (MOST LIKELY - HIGH CONFIDENCE): Over the next 24-48 hours, Russian forces will attempt to consolidate and expand their foothold in Ocheretyne, while simultaneously maintaining intense pressure on Chasiv Yar. The Ocheretyne effort will be prioritized with immediate reinforcements to exploit the breakthrough, while the Chasiv Yar assault continues as a shaping operation to fix our reserves. Expect a major armored push towards Chasiv Yar to be delayed until the Ocheretyne situation is stabilized in their favor.
• COA 2 (LESS LIKELY - MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): The enemy will commit reserves to the Chasiv Yar axis for an immediate, large-scale armored assault within the next 48 hours, treating the Ocheretyne advance as a secondary, diversionary success. This would indicate that the seizure of Chasiv Yar remains the theater-level operational objective, regardless of opportunities elsewhere.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

• (IMMEDIATE) Allocate available tactical reserves to conduct a counter-attack to stabilize the defensive line at Ocheretyne and prevent a wider enemy breakthrough.
• (IMMEDIATE) Task ISR assets (UAV, SIGINT) to focus on identifying and targeting Russian C2 nodes, artillery concentrations, and logistics south of Bakhmut to disrupt preparations for the Chasiv Yar assault.
• (PRIORITY) Pre-position additional ATGM teams and prepare minefields along likely armored avenues of approach to Chasiv Yar, particularly from the east and southeast.
• (PRIORITY) Intensify counter-battery fire missions against identified enemy artillery positions supporting both the Chasiv Yar and Ocheretyne advances.
• (ONGOING) Continue to prioritize the hunt for FAB/KAB launch platforms (Su-34/Su-35 aircraft) and their associated C2/logistics infrastructure.