1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (ACTIONABLE INTELLIGENCE)

Russian forces have executed a significant tactical shift on the Avdiivka axis, initiating large-scale mechanized assaults near Ocheretyne after a period of infantry-led attacks. Concurrently, a new-generation Shipovnik-Aero EW system has been deployed near Chasiv Yar, posing a significant threat to Ukrainian UAV C2 links. These developments indicate a coordinated effort to achieve a breakthrough in key sectors, leveraging both massed armor and advanced electronic warfare capabilities.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Tactical Shift (Avdiivka Axis): (NEW) Russian forces have escalated from small-unit infantry actions to company-sized mechanized assaults in the Ocheretyne direction. This is a marked departure from the attritional tactics observed over the previous 7-10 days.
• Loitering Munition Activity (Chasiv Yar Axis): (CHANGED) Lancet loitering munition strikes have increased by approximately 50% over the last 24 hours compared to the 72-hour rolling average, primarily targeting Ukrainian artillery and logistics nodes west of Chasiv Yar.
• EW Posture (Chasiv Yar Axis): (NEW) The first confirmed operational deployment of the Shipovnik-Aero mobile EW complex has been identified, representing a new and advanced threat to our drone operations in this sector.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• Advanced Electronic Warfare Threat (Chasiv Yar): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The deployment of the Shipovnik-Aero EW system presents a high-level threat. Intelligence suggests it is specifically designed to target and disrupt UAV command-and-control links at extended ranges, potentially degrading the effectiveness of our primary ISR and FPV drone assets in the area. Its mobility makes it a difficult target to fix and neutralize.
• Mechanized Assault Threat (Avdiivka): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The renewed use of massed armor, despite previous heavy losses, indicates a high-risk, high-reward approach by enemy command. While costly for the enemy, a successful mechanized breach could unhinge defenses in the Ocheretyne-Prohres salient.
• Enhanced FPV Drone Payload Threat (Avdiivka): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) Increasing reports indicate Russian FPV drones are being equipped with thermobaric warheads. This poses a heightened threat to entrenched personnel and light-skinned vehicles, with greater destructive effects against fortified positions than standard fragmentation payloads.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Avdiivka Axis / Ocheretyne Direction:

  • Engagement: At approximately 0400Z, elements of the 47th Mechanized Brigade successfully engaged and repelled a significant Russian mechanized assault northwest of Ocheretyne.
  • Enemy Losses: (CONFIRMED) Post-engagement BDA confirms the destruction or disabling of at least 8x MBTs and 14x IFVs/APCs. This represents a significant loss of combat power for the attacking Russian unit.
  • Disposition: Despite the repulse, Russian forces maintain forward positions and are likely capable of reconstituting for subsequent attacks.

• Bakhmut Axis / Chasiv Yar Direction:

  • Ground Situation: Russian airborne (VDV) units have made minor tactical gains on the eastern edge of the Kanal micro-district. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
  • Defensive Posture: Ukrainian units continue to hold the main defensive line along the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal, successfully preventing any significant enemy crossings. The integrity of this water barrier remains key to the defense of the city.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• Enemy Reserves (Avdiivka): The composition, strength, and readiness of the Russian second-echelon forces staged behind the Ocheretyne line of contact remains a critical intelligence gap. Understanding this is key to predicting their ability to sustain mechanized operations.
• EW System Capabilities (Chasiv Yar): The precise effective range, targetable frequency bands, and operational cycle of the newly deployed Shipovnik-Aero EW system are unknown. This information is critical for developing effective countermeasures.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• Avdiivka Axis: (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) It is likely that Russian forces will conduct another major mechanized assault towards Prohres within the next 24-48 hours. They will likely attempt to bypass heavily fortified Ukrainian positions that inflicted heavy losses in the last attempt, potentially seeking weaker points in the line.
• Chasiv Yar Axis: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) It is highly likely that Russian forces will attempt a tactical crossing of the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal. The deployment of the Shipovnik-Aero system strongly indicates they will use its EW effects as a covering screen to degrade Ukrainian FPV drone and ISR overwatch during the critical assault phase.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

• Materiel (Avdiivka): Prioritize immediate resupply of ATGM systems (Javelin, Stugna-P) and additional FPV drones to the 47th Mechanized Brigade and adjacent units to replenish stocks expended in repelling the recent assault and prepare for follow-on attacks.
• ISR Tasking (Chasiv Yar): Task all available SIGINT and IMINT assets to locate the Shipovnik-Aero EW system. Its neutralization should be a priority for HIMARS or other long-range precision-fire assets. Develop and disseminate immediate tactical guidance for drone operators on potential countermeasures (e.g., alternative frequencies, revised flight paths).

END OF SUMMARY