1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(CONFIDENCE: HIGH) A new Russian "Northern Group of Forces" has initiated a major cross-border offensive into northern Kharkiv Oblast, representing a significant strategic shift in the conflict. Enemy elements have achieved tactical surprise and have entered the outskirts of Vovchansk and Lyptsi. This main effort is being supported by intensified fixing operations and heavy electronic warfare (EW) across the entire Eastern front, designed to pin Ukrainian reserves and disrupt command and control (C2).

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT (13 MAY 2024)

• NEW OPERATIONAL AXIS (KHARKIV): The primary change is the activation of a new offensive axis in northern Kharkiv Oblast. The threat, previously assessed as MEDIUM for a cross-border raid, has materialized into a significant ground offensive.
• ENEMY ORBAT UPDATE: The identification of a new operational command, the "Northern Group of Forces," indicates a dedicated and pre-planned operation, not a limited tactical action.
• THREAT LEVEL INCREASE: The operational threat to Kharkiv city and its surrounding oblast has been elevated from MEDIUM to CRITICAL.
• SHIFT IN ENEMY TACTICS: Activity on the Kupiansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes has intensified but is now assessed as a supporting/fixing effort to enable the main push in Kharkiv, a change from their previous status as main efforts.
• ELECTRONIC WARFARE: A dramatic and targeted increase in EW activity has been confirmed along the northern border, specifically targeting Ukrainian ISR drones and C2 systems, facilitating the enemy's ground advance.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• PRIMARY THREAT: The most immediate threat is the rapid envelopment of Vovchansk and the establishment of a significant enemy salient aimed at bringing Kharkiv city within range of tube artillery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• NEW ENEMY CAPABILITIES: The enemy has demonstrated improved coordination between ground assault elements, indirect fire, and sophisticated EW. The "Northern Group of Forces" appears to be employing tactics designed to rapidly seize ground before prepared Ukrainian defenses can be fully manned. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• EMERGING RISKS: A successful Russian advance in Kharkiv threatens to draw critical Ukrainian reserves away from the Donbas, potentially creating vulnerabilities that Russian forces could exploit on the Bakhmut or Avdiivka axes. The psychological impact of threatening Ukraine's second-largest city is a significant secondary risk.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• NORTHERN AXIS (KHARKIV):
  • (NEW) Ground Incursion: Between 0400-0500 local time, multiple Russian columns crossed the international border. HUMINT and ISR confirm enemy presence in the northern outskirts of Vovchansk and Lyptsi. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • (NEW) EW Dominance: Pervasive GPS jamming and anti-drone electronic attacks are severely degrading Ukrainian ISR and tactical communications in the border area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• EASTERN AXES (Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut):
  • (UPDATE) Fixing Operations: Enemy artillery, air strikes (FAB/KAB), and localized probing attacks have increased in intensity by approximately 30% compared to the previous 24-hour period. However, no major ground assaults to seize new objectives have been observed. This activity is assessed with HIGH confidence as an effort to fix Ukrainian units in place.
  • (UPDATE) Chasiv Yar: Heavy fighting continues in the Kanal microdistrict, but the operational tempo is consistent with pinning Ukrainian defenders rather than achieving a decisive breakthrough.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• Enemy Strength & Composition: The precise size, equipment, and unit composition of the "Northern Group of Forces" remains unknown. We lack intelligence on the existence and location of second-echelon forces.
• Operational Objectives: The enemy's ultimate objective is unclear. Assessment ranges from a limited operation to create a "buffer zone" to a full-scale assault with the goal of encircling Kharkiv city.
• Effectiveness of Counter-Measures: The impact of Ukrainian defensive fortifications and counter-EW systems against this new push is not yet fully assessed.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (24-48 HOURS)

• MOST LIKELY COURSE OF ACTION (MLCOA): (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Russian forces will focus on consolidating their gains in the "grey zone," attempting to secure Vovchansk and Lyptsi to use as forward operating bases. They will continue intense fixing operations on the Eastern front to prevent the redeployment of Ukrainian reserves.
• MOST DANGEROUS COURSE OF ACTION (MDCOA): (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) The enemy will attempt to rapidly exploit their initial success by bypassing Ukrainian strongpoints and driving deep towards Kharkiv. This would indicate the commitment of unobserved second-echelon forces and an objective to place the city under direct artillery siege within 48-72 hours.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. IMMEDIATE ACTION: Redeploy designated operational reserves to the Kharkiv axis to stabilize the defensive line near Vovchansk and Lyptsi and prevent a deeper enemy breakthrough.
2. ISR PRIORITY: Task all available national and theater ISR assets (IMINT, SIGINT) to identify the composition, disposition, and command structure of the "Northern Group of Forces" and locate any follow-on echelons.
3. COUNTER-EW: Prioritize the deployment of advanced counter-EW systems to the Kharkiv sector to degrade enemy C2 and re-establish friendly ISR dominance.
4. FORCE POSTURE: Maintain high alert on the Kupiansk and Bakhmut axes. Be prepared for opportunistic Russian attacks should they perceive a weakening of Ukrainian defenses due to reserve redeployments.

END OF REPORT