1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Enemy forces are escalating offensive pressure on the Avdiivka axis, employing new thermobaric munitions and armored tactics, indicating a concerted effort to achieve a tactical breakthrough (HIGH Confidence). Concurrently, a significant increase in sophisticated Electronic Warfare (EW) activity has been detected in the south, aimed at degrading friendly C4ISR and precision-guided munitions (PGM) capabilities (HIGH Confidence). These developments suggest a coordinated, multi-axis effort to seize the initiative before anticipated changes in weather conditions.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS

• NEW - Offensive Tactics (Avdiivka): Confirmed use of TOS-1A thermobaric multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) in direct support of mechanized assaults near Avdiivka, a significant escalation in firepower on this axis. Previous reports noted artillery preparation; this is a qualitative change in ordnance employed.
• NEW - EW Capabilities (Zaporizhzhia): First-time identification of the Murmansk-BN long-range communications jamming system in the southern operational area. This represents a strategic-level EW threat not previously observed in this sector, capable of disrupting HF communications over a wide area.
• CHANGED - Air Threat Profile: Enemy aviation has shifted from sporadic sorties to coordinated strikes using FAB-500 glide bombs against fixed positions along the entire southern front, a change from previous patterns of isolated air-to-ground attacks.
• CHANGED - Force Posture (Lyman): Enemy forces in the Lyman sector have transitioned from a defensive posture to conducting localized, company-sized probing attacks, indicating a potential shift towards offensive operations.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• Air/PGM Threat: SEVERE. The combination of enhanced EW (Murmansk-BN, Shipovnik-Aero) and increased use of glide bombs poses a severe threat to friendly air operations, C2 nodes, and forward-deployed units. The enemy is actively attempting to create an anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) bubble to neutralize our PGM advantage (HIGH Confidence).
• Ground Offensive Threat (Avdiivka): HIGH. The commitment of TOS-1A systems and fresh T-90M tanks, coupled with recent ground assaults, indicates a high and immediate threat of a renewed major offensive to encircle friendly forces in Avdiivka (HIGH Confidence).
• Artillery Threat: HIGH. Enemy artillery, particularly in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka sectors, continues to fire at high volumes. The primary threat is counter-battery fire targeting friendly artillery assets, enabled by Orlan-10 and ZALA drone observation.
• UAV Threat: HIGH. The integrated use of Lancet loitering munitions for tactical strikes and Orlan-10/Supercam drones for reconnaissance and artillery spotting remains a persistent, high-level threat to armor, artillery, and logistics convoys.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Avdiivka Axis:

  • CONFIRMED: Enemy forces conducted two separate company-sized mechanized assaults on southern approaches to Avdiivka, supported by TOS-1A fire strikes. Both assaults were repelled with significant enemy armor losses (est. 5-7 MBTs, 10+ IFVs), but friendly positions sustained damage.
  • CONFIRMED: SIGINT and visual observation confirm the deployment of at least one company of T-90M tanks to this axis, likely from the 90th Guards Tank Division, replacing combat-ineffective units (HIGH Confidence).

• Zaporizhzhia Axis (Robotyne/Verbove):

  • CONFIRMED: Widespread GPS signal degradation and C2 jamming reported across the front, corroborating the activation of the Murmansk-BN system. Multiple friendly UAV sorties were aborted due to loss of control link.
  • Enemy activity remains largely defensive, focused on reinforcing trench lines and emplacing new minefields. No significant ground attacks were reported in the last 24 hours.

• Bakhmut Axis:

  • Positional fighting continues around Klishchiivka and Andriivka. Enemy forces conducted multiple platoon-level counter-attacks to regain lost high ground, all of which were unsuccessful (MEDIUM Confidence). Artillery duels remain the primary activity in this sector.

• Lyman-Kupiansk Axis:

  • CONFIRMED: Enemy forces conducted probing attacks near Synkivka and Terny, likely to fix friendly forces in place and identify weaknesses in defensive lines. These actions appear to be shaping operations rather than a main effort (MEDIUM Confidence).

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• PRIMARY: What is the specific enemy trigger/criteria for committing main effort reserves for a larger-scale offensive in the Avdiivka sector?
• PRIMARY: Location and operational status of the command-and-control node for the Murmansk-BN EW system.
• Current stock levels and resupply rate of FAB-500 glide bombs to forward airfields.
• Composition, readiness, and intent of enemy reserves behind the Lyman-Kupiansk line of contact.
• Enemy assessment of the effectiveness of their new thermobaric and EW tactics.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (24-48 HOUR FORECAST)

• MOST LIKELY COA: Enemy will continue intense pressure on Avdiivka, using thermobaric and heavy artillery preparation to soften defenses for another multi-pronged armored assault within the next 24-48 hours. The objective remains the tactical encirclement of the city (HIGH Confidence).
• SECOND MOST LIKELY COA: In the south, the enemy will leverage their enhanced EW bubble to support spoiling attacks with loitering munitions and glide bombs, aiming to disrupt friendly offensive preparations and degrade our command and control (MEDIUM Confidence).
• POSSIBLE COA: A larger, battalion-level offensive could be launched in the Lyman sector if probing attacks reveal a significant vulnerability in friendly defenses (LOW Confidence).

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

• PRIORITY 1 (DEFENSE): Immediately reinforce Avdiivka sector with additional ATGM teams and FPV drone assets to counter the renewed armored threat. Pre-plan counter-battery fires on likely TOS-1A firing positions.
• PRIORITY 2 (EW/C4ISR): Task all available ISR assets (SIGINT, IMINT) to locate and target the Murmansk-BN EW system and associated C2 nodes in the south. This is now a high-priority target.
• PRIORITY 3 (AIR DEFENSE): Disperse and camouflage forward air defense systems to mitigate the threat from glide bombs. Increase combat air patrols (CAP) if feasible to intercept launch platforms before weapon release.
• PRIORITY 4 (INTEL): Focus collection efforts on identifying enemy reserve force movements behind the Avdiivka and Lyman fronts to provide early warning of a major offensive push.